Punctuated Equilibrium, Celestial Navigation, and APIs

Punctuated Equilibrium,Celestial Navigation,and APIsCompeting through dynamic adaptationSam Ramji, Apigee @sramjiDan Jacobson, Netflix @daniel_jacobsonMichael Hart, Netflix @michaelhart

Darwin formulated his theory of evolution about 150 years ago

Based on observations he made in the Galapagos Islands 15 years earlier

A wild diversity of creatures existed in a new environment

Starting from an ancestor which looked like this

Finches evolved that looked like this

For many years the belief was that this change happened slowly and gradually.

In 1972, Stephen Jay Gould and Niles Eldredge proposed a new idea

that evolution is not slow and gradual

Applying this view to the observations of finches

G. ScandensC. PallidusG. MagnirostrisG. ConirostrisC. HeliobatesG. FortisG. FulginosaC. PsittaculaC. PauperC. OlivaceaC. ParvulusCerthideaCamarhynchusGeospiza

“Thus, from the war of nature, from famine and death, the most exalted object of which we are capable of conceiving, namely the production of higher animals directly follows.”Charles DarwinOn Origin of Species

So while it may look slow and gradual in hindsight

Evolution is experienced in punctuated bursts.

If you’re living in a punctuated burst of evolutionit feels like a revolution

only looks smooth in hindsight

Living through it is usually chaotic

Karen JamesThe Beagle Project Blog

To navigate, you need a map and instruments

Maps exist for transferring knowledge

and they too have evolved over time.

They started as oral traditionand were written down in a form called a periplus

Periplus of HannoCourtesy of Heidelberg University

Periplus of HannoCourtesy of Cornell University

Far less efficient knowledge transfer than a modern map of the same journey

Map of Hanno’s JourneyCourtesy of Bourrichon/Wikipedia

Exploration was dramatically held back for want of a map

In the two thousand years between Hanno’s journey on a Phoenician trireme

And the Mediterranean caravel of the 15th century

Maps had only evolved to be graphical descriptions of coastlines

That was a map published a few years beforeColumbus crossed the Atlantic to find India

After his crossing, his expedition shared their knowledgein a new map

Still far from perfectbut much improved.

The biggest challenge in this kind of explorationwas determining their location on the Earth

Instruments for measuring latitude had beenused and improved for centuries

Longitude was the hard problem.

You needed to know not just the angle of the sun and stars

you also needed to know the precise time.

Regardless of your sailing technologywithout the proper measurementyou were lost

We are not promising a perfect map of the new world

But it should be more like this

and we will show you what we know how to measure.

There are more niches today than we’ve seen before, so we need to borrow from nature

If we start with an API we can explore all the niches around our business

The leaders of today’s Internet

clearly understand this mechanism.

They understand that the distribution model for value has changed in the Internet era.

Packaged GoodsConsumerRetail StoreProducerInternet ServicesAppDeveloperConsumerProvider

Developers took their APIs and explored the niches for them

The providers and the developers both benefited from this adaptation

Suddenly this seems obvious to everyone.

And developers are racing to pack the niches.

This is a sudden, material shift in competition.

It only looks gradual if you’re losing.

BUSINESS MODELSFrom 1st Party to Partner to Platform

We’ve seen punctuated equilibrium in business models over the last hundred years

App DeveloperDevice AppBig Box RetailerMobile AppNational ChainWeb RetailDepartment StoreWeb CatalogSpecialty StoreIndirect SalesDirect Sales

What’s the environmental stress driving the current rapid change?

Hardt’s Theorem: The Internet Power LawThe first wave of the Internet demonstrated the economic impact of web-based business models.99:195:5The API-driven Internet is demonstrating the next concentration of power and is reflecting a “99:1” distribution (examples: Twitter, Facebook) due to the high switching costs and effective lock-in through software. The HTML-driven Internet showed new business models that focused revenue in the 3rd standard deviation (examples: Amazon, EBay). Reality reflected a “95:5” rule where 5% of companies dominated the transactions and profits.80:20Previous eras of business showed a normal distribution for revenue, with most firms getting most of the revenue. In the later half of the 20th century, business model innovations focused revenue in the 2nd standard deviation above the mean. The “80:20” rule became conventional wisdom.The next wave of the Internet is demonstrating the economic impact of API-based business models.

But you need to tackle it in a way that fits your business

1st PartyOpenOpenOpenPlatformPartner

These are complementary and distinct.Open is different for each one.

1st Party AppsPartner AppsPlatform Ecosystem

1st party1st party is about offering direct access to your core business via apps that you make or contract out

1st partyHere open means all the business is accessible to internal developers and contract specialists

partnerPartner is about enabling directed development of apps that extend your business model towards your business partners

partnerHere open means existing partners have access to your business via APIs and can innovate asynchronously

platformPlatform is about enabling unknown developers to build brand new apps and businesses that will surprise and inform you

platformHere open means enabling business models and allowing developers to support each other at massive scale

openOpen lets you navigate across the possible business models when your first model doesn’t work as planned

To get your API strategy properly grounded

“John MusserProgrammable Web

Establish Target SegmentsEngage Developer ChannelSet Industry Goal

target segmentsAn API should extend your core businessinto a new part of the market

target segmentsYour core business already has key performance indicators

target segmentsSo apply your KPIs to the new market segment you’re targeting with your APIs

target segmentsWhat is the market impact you need to create in order to succeed as a business?

target segmentsWhat does the targetsegment need that it is not getting from you today?

target segmentsThe answer will be the foundation of your API strategy.

developer channelIn most cases the channel for your API will be developers, but what do they need?

developer channelA profit motive.

developer channelHere are the leading profit models for developers today

developer channelIn-app purchasesAffiliate royaltyYour advertising spendMarket awareness of their offeringApp sales

industry goalIf you don’t know where you’re going, you definitely won’t get there

industry goalPartnerships and platform businesses are very different things.

industry goalPartnerships are formed to serve a known set of entities

industry goalA partner API should be traceable to each partner’s relationship

industry goalAnd support end-to-end business processes

industry goalA platform exists to create massive and unpredictable opportunities

industry goalAll your technology, support, and community decisions will be about surviving the scale of adoption

That’s the strategy dimension.

The execution dimension is what you already know.

Planning.Management.Organization.

Putting all this in context gives us a map for our API strategy

The instruments will be your KPIs and your core API metrics: performance and adoption

ARCHITECTUREFrom Mainframe to Mobile

Connected DevicesSmartphoneWeb AppN-tierPersonalComputerDCOMCORBAWebsiteMinicomputerClient/ServerMainframeIntegratedDistributedComputing

“The Web is Dead. Long Live the Internet.Chris AndersonWired Magazine

The Web is Dead. Long Live APIs!

Twitter traffic distribution shows what he means

Netflix traffic distribution is nearly the same.

The majority of Netflix traffic comes from API-drivenconnected devices.

Like Columbus, Netflix started with a map of the coastline

Build an open API as a platformand let a thousand flowers bloom

But they had left the coastline far behind

And the instruments indicated that there were fewer flowers than expected

Netflix API Requests by Segment

But partners started building apps for connected devices and the business took off

WiiiPadPS3iPhoneApple TVLG TVsSamsung TVsRokuXBox

Architecture should reflect the business model

So Netflix has drawn the following map

WiiRokuPS3iPhoneiPadGoogle TVApple TVXBoxLG TVsSamsung TVs

Instruments show that API traffic has grown tremendously in a short time

20,000,000,000 API requests per month.Is that a cause for celebration?Or for concern?

When you’re navigating uncharted waters,speed is not your friend.Perhaps it’s time to slow down and avoid risking unknown reefs.

Navigating this growth challenge for Netflix means that the next API revision will focus on reducing overall traffic.

Part of this redesign is reviewing conventions

Punctuated Equilibrium: RESTData sourced fromProgrammableWeb

REST seems obvious but assess what makes sense for your business.

Tiered architecture helps you navigate different problems with agility

ControllerModelViewiPhone WrapperRecommendationsR12n ServiceXbox WrapperUNIFIED LIST/TITLE APIWii WrapperUser InfoUser ServicePS3 WrapperSimilar MoviesSimilar Movie ServiceSHARED API INTERFACESRoku WrapperMovie MetadataDataNormalization&ResiliencyiPad WrapperUSER APIViewing HistoryApple TV WrapperRatingsPC / Mac WrapperTiVo WrapperAPI Repository LayerWrapper LayerWeb Service LayerShared LayerSource Data LayerApp LayerAPI Layer

StableFlexibleAgileiPhone WrapperRecommendationsR12n ServiceXbox WrapperUNIFIED LIST/TITLE APIWii WrapperUser InfoUser ServicePS3 WrapperSimilar MoviesSimilar Movie ServiceSHARED API INTERFACESRoku WrapperMovie MetadataDataNormalization&ResiliencyiPad WrapperUSER APIViewing HistoryApple TV WrapperRatingsPC / Mac WrapperTiVo WrapperAPI Repository LayerWrapper LayerWeb Service LayerShared LayerSource Data LayerApp LayerAPI Layer

Server architecture should support both crests and troughs of the waves of demand

Instance Architecture Based on SpecializationList CreationDependency ServiceELASTIC INSTANCE LAYERAPI METADATA CACHING LAYERMetaDataDependency ServiceMETADATA SERVICE

Instance Architecture Based on SpecializationHandles Request/ResponseList CreationDependency ServiceELASTIC INSTANCE LAYERCaches Dependency DataAPI METADATA CACHING LAYERMetaDataDependency ServicePopulates and Manages CacheMETADATA SERVICE

Map out your usage patterns and cache your data accordingly

Vertical Caching: Netflix Full Movie Data

Horizontal Caching: Netflix Basic Data

Combining horizontal and vertical caching may be the best approach when building for multiple geographies

Design for where you’re going

You don’t need to implementfor massive scale

But you must design for it or you will follow your successful ocean crossing with a massive shipwreck.

Navigation also means constantly adjusting your course to ensure you arrive at your final goal

Sometimes adjusting course on an API means you must change your version

Versioning means supporting multiple applications, all of which basically do the same thing

Versioning1.01.52.03.0?4.0?5.0?Today

Version-less API1.01.52.0Here there be dragonsversionlessToday

Rules for going versionless in your production APIs

Extend your API by extending data typesAddition is not version-worthyBetter to be incomplete than inaccurateWithhold implementation if you are unsure

With APIs emerging, we need better tools help us navigate

The service level agreement is your sextant

Set reasonable service level agreements

What is reasonable will vary by API and use casebut you must communicate them to your users.

Measure average latencies, error rates and types,and respond when SLAs are broken

Having visibility into performance means you can tack immediatelyrather than after your users threaten to mutiny.

Longer-term navigation requires higher-level metrics

Request-based metrics such as what endpoints were called and what parameters were passed can show you what aspects of your API are popular.Response-based metrics such as what was delivered, how quickly, and whether the response was valid can show you what aspects of your API need work.

System trace metrics that track what underlying systems were called and how they responded can show you where you need to evolve your internal architecture.Business performance metrics such as how much revenue or how much customer engagement is occurring through the API show you how close you are to delivering on the business plan.

Domain-specificData APIsPrivate Cloud DBsCaching DBsData APIDataWarehousingMainframeRDBMSFlat fileSharedSilosData

Punctuated equilibrium in data sharing

AppOrgCross-orgCross-businessMainframeDatabasesMiddlewareAPIs

So we are evolving to cross-business sharing

There are a few challengesin making this journey

Sharing your data via an API entails a different set of considerations than APIs which expose your services

loss of controlonly recourse is legalenforcement is expensive

That said, it may be time to get overyour control issues

Be honest about the value you could get from sharing your data outside your corporation

instead of just the costs and risks of sharing it.

In opening up its movie data warehouse

Netflix found that the cost was the same as any API, the risks could be managed through rate limits and access control,but that now others could build great movie discovery experiences that led to increased Netflix viewing hours.

Sharing data as a service means making a few course corrections on your API

enable larger downloads for fewer queriesmore liberal retention policies means less API traffic, higher performance, and less costpush incremental updateslimited access to richer queries

Looking forward, how are we going to work through this wave of shared data?

Two different dimensions are apparent

First, no one wants all of your data, just some of it.Just the right parts of it for their particular need.

Where have we seen this before?

Last time the right solution was a query languagePerhaps it’s the right solution now

Instead of a static REST call, we could pose a query like “what are the highest rated movies from the 1980s?”http://odata.netflix.com/Catalog/Titles?$filter=ReleaseYear le 1989and ReleaseYearge1980and AverageRatinggt4&$expand=Awards

Caveat structor does applyThis is new ground and we haven’t seen anyone do this at massive scale

Second, people want just the right parts of your data for their particular needBut they need the right parts of other people’s data to have a complete context

Last time the right solution was middleware for distributed queriesPerhaps it’s the right solution now

But the rules have changed a bit since the data is laying all over the Internet

[{ "id": null, "name": null, "type": "/dining/restaurant", "/business/business_location/address": [{ "street_address": [], "citytown": { "id": "/en/toronto" } }], "cuisine": [{ "/dining/cuisine/region_of_origin": [{ "!/film/film/featured_film_locations": [{ "id": "/en/the_italian_job" }] }]Instead of a single domain query, we could ask for a list of “Toronto restaurants with cuisine from a filming location of ‘The Italian Job’”

Caveat structor still applies.This is very new terrain indeed.

The bigger question than what should you be sharing outIs what should you be sharing in

What data APIs should your business be using?

What could you offer your customers if you knew which of them were friends with each other?

What does that logo mean to you today?Perhaps it’s time to think differently.Facebook is a massive data API that lets you correlate your customers with their true context

You could move beyond a flat-earth view where all your customers are their own islands of dataAnd each of them were connected in ways that makes your business more valuable to them

What could you offer your customers if you knew where they like to go?

The more of your customer’s context that you can understandThe more time you can save themAnd that makes your business more valuable to them

The good news is that there are already data APIs to get this contextNow you need to focus on sharing in

We are going through a period of rapid change in business models, architecture, and data

Navigating based strictly on the stories of others

Will not give you the clear map that you need

Develop instruments around your APIthat help you understand where you’re going

so that you can correct your course and beat your competition in the race for the future.

THANK YOUQuestions and ideas to:@michaelhart@daniel_jacobson@sramji

Punctuated Equilibrium, Celestial Navigation, and APIs

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