Review on the Cause and Effects of Recurrent Drought on Ethiopian Agriculture Productivity

International journal of Horticulture, Agriculture and Food science(IJHAF) Vol-3, Issue-5, Sept-Oct, 2019
https://dx.doi.org/10.22161/ijhaf.3.5.7 ISSN: 2456-8635
www.aipublications.com Page | 292
Review on the Cause and Effects of Recurrent
Drought on Ethiopian Agriculture Productivity
Sena Amsalu
Department of Agricultural economics, Raya University, Ethiopia
senaamsalu9@gmail.com
Abstract— Drought occurs in virtually all climatic zones, but its characteristics vary significantly from one region
to another. Ethiopia characteristically sees three seasons of varying amounts of rainfall. The central western
regions getting a sufficient amount of rain during the rainy season, but the rest of the country, especially towards
the horn being very dry for most time of the year. This also leads that some parts of regions of Ethiopia severely
affected by recurrent drought. Recurrent drought caused by deforestation, high population growth, land
degradation and soil erosion which intern affect agriculture include crop losses, lower yields in both crop and
livestock production, increased livestock deaths and generally it may bring economic, environmental, and social
impacts. Different efforts are made by policy maker and government to reduce or mitigate the impact of drought but
still the impact is there thus this review show the gap.
Keywords— drought; deforestation; land degradation; yield; impact; productivity.
I. INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background of the study
Now a day, most African countries are dealing with a
number of socio-economic and environmental challenges
including poverty, resource degradation, rapid population
growth, and low agricultural productivity. Particularly, deal
with continent which is regularly affected by severe and
often multiyear of drought. However, all areas within Africa
are not equally vulnerable to drought. The sub-Saharan part
of the region is considered to be the most drought-prone.
This region is relatively drier, receiving much lower rainfall
compared with the rest of the region (Sara, 2009).
Ethiopia is one of the sub-Sahara African countries highly
prone to hazards. The main environmental hazard in the
country include land degradation, soil erosion,
deforestation, loss of biodiversity, desertification, recurrent
drought, flood and water and air pollution. Since large part
of the country is dry, sub-humid, semi-arid, and arid, they
are prone to desertification, drought, famine, flood, malaria,
land degradation, livestock disease, insect pests,
earthquakes. Especially, recurrent drought, famine and,
flood are the main problems that affect millions of people in
the country almost every year (NAPA, 2007).Recently
drought has remained the leading cause of disaster and
human suffering in Ethiopia. The magnitude, frequency and
the effects of the droughts have increased since mid-70s.
The severity and persistence of the latest droughts has
produced a wide range of impacts across the country.
Though agriculture was taken as a core sector to solve the
current challenges and to bring future sustainability to the
continent, the sector is recently challenged by climatic
shocks such as prolonged drought, late coming and early
stop of rainfall before and after crop maturity. Agricultural
production has been severely affected and there has been a
significant reduction in livestock populations that are the
mainstay of subsistence. Large population movements due
to drought have aggravated and compounded these miseries
for communities, often with disproportionate impacts across
the country (McCarthy, 2001; Collier et al., 2008; Ngaira,
2007; Adger et al., 2003).
1.2 Objectives
 To review the main causes for drought
and its feature on agriculture productivity
 To show the impact of recurrent drought
on agriculture productivity in Ethiopia
II. LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 Concept and Definitions of Drought
Drought occurs in virtually all climatic zones, but its
characteristics vary significantly from one region to another
and its definition varies from region to region and may
depend upon the dominating perception, and the task for

which it is defined. It originates from a deficiency of
precipitation over an extended period of time, usually a
season or more. It should generally be defined relative to
some long-term average condition in a particular area, a
condition often perceived as “normal”. It is also related to
the timing (i.e., principal season of occurrence, delays in the
start of the rainy season, occurrence of rains in relation to
principal crop growth stages) and the effectiveness (i.e.,
rainfall intensity, number of rainfall events) of the rains.
Other climatic factors such as high temperature, high wind,
and low relative humidity are often associated with it in
many regions of the world and can significantly aggravate
its severity (Sara 2010).
Drought is a temporary deviation; it differs from aridity,
which is restricted to low rainfall regions and is a
permanent feature of climate (Sara, 2009). Based on a
disciplinary perspective, can be found in, where droughts
are related to precipitation (meteorological), stream flow
(hydrological), soil moisture (agricultural) or any
combination of the three (Dracupet al., 1980).
Metrological drought
According to Dracupet al. (1980), Meteorological drought
is defined usually on the basis of the degree of dryness (in
comparison to some “normal” or average amount) and the
duration of the dry period. It is based on solely on
departures of rainfall from expected amounts. So, the
definition of meteorological drought must be considered as
region specific since the atmospheric conditions that result
in deficiencies of precipitation are highly variable from
region to region.
Agricultural drought
Agricultural drought links various characteristics of
meteorological (or hydrological) drought to agricultural
impacts, focusing on precipitation shortages, differences
between actual and potential evapo-transpiration, soil water
deficits, and so forth. It happens after meteorological
drought but before hydrological drought. A good definition
of agricultural drought should be able to account for the
variable susceptibility of crops during different stages of
crop development, from emergence to maturity. Deficient to
topsoil moisture at planting may hinder germination,
leading to low plant populations per hectares and reduction
of final yields. However, if topsoil moisture is sufficient at
this early stage, it may not affect final yield (Verdin J., 2007
& Sara, 2009).
Hydrological drought
Hydrological drought is associated with the effects of
periods of precipitation on surface or subsurface water
supply (i.e., stream flow, reservoir and lake levels, and
ground water). The frequency and severity of hydrological
drought is often defined on a watershed or river basin scale
(wilhite and Glantz 1985).
2.2 Ethiopia’s Climate Characteristics and Economy
Geographically, Ethiopia can be subdivided into five agro
ecological zones, based on moisture and land use: 1)
drought-prone highlands with insufficient rainfall; 2)
rainfall-sufficient highlands dominated by enset-based
farming; 3) rainfall-sufficient highland areas mainly planted
with cereal-based crops; 4) generally dry, pastoral lowland
areas (bordering on Eritrea); and 5) humid lowland areas
further inland that primarily support crop farming. We
expect that climate change will lead to adaptive shifts in
cultivation patterns in all five regions (World Bank, 2008).
A combination of varied rainfall and temperature patterns
are mostly responsible for Ethiopia’s classification in
Africa’s tropical zone and the country’s assorted
topography. A year in Ethiopia characteristically sees three
seasons of varying amounts of rainfall. These seasons
include: “kremt”(Summer), the main rainy season running
from June- September; “bega”(Winter), the dry season
running from October-January; and “belg”(Autumn), the
small rains season running from February-May. The
average rainfall ranges from about 2000 millimeters in the
Southwest regions to about 100 millimeters in the
Northeastern Lowlands. The average mean of rainfall is 113
millimeters from 1951-1995(Morgan 2012).
According to Adenew (2006), Over 80 percent of the
population of the country derives its livelihood from
agriculture. Of the 4.3 million hectares of potentially
irrigable agricultural land, less than 10 percent is currently
farmed. Smallholder farmers dominate the sector,
generating about 90 percent of agricultural output.
According to Alemuet al., (2011), Agriculture in Ethiopia,
is heavily dependent on rain. Its geographical location and
topography, plus a low adaptive capacity, make the country
highly vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change.
Poverty in Ethiopia is a chronic problem and about two-
thirds of its 72 million people live on less than $2 a day
(World Bank 2008). It is one of the most food-insecure
countries in the world, a situation compounded by droughts
and famine that cycle in and out.

About half of all rural households in the country
experienced at least one major drought from 1999 to 2004.
With agriculture highly dependent on rainfall variability and
amount, weather in general rules the lives and well-being of
many rural Ethiopians. The weather determines whether
they will have enough to eat, be able to provide basic
necessities, and be able to earn a living. Indeed, farmers’
dependence on rainfall and its erratic patterns have largely
contributed to the food shortages and crises with which they
constantly battle (Dercon 2009).
2.3 The Cause and Effects of Recurrent Drought
According to Tagelet al. (2013),the high dependency of the
peasant farmers on rainfall associated with the shortfall and
erratic nature of the rainfall during the last three decades
have resulted in widespread drought and famine. Moreover,
the rising population pressure and clearing of forests to
satisfy its basic demands such as food and energy made the
soil susceptible to wind and water erosion which in turn
bring drought.
Ethiopia has a long history of drought, which greatly
contributed to land degradation. In addition to this, the
combined effects of deforestation, overgrazing, expansion
of cropland and unsustainable use of natural resources has
contributed to land degradation (Descheeet al, 2011).
There is growing concern that much of Sub-Saharan
Africa’s natural resource base and ecological environment
are deteriorating mainly due to high loss of vegetative cover
resulting from deforestation and conversion of savanna to
cropland (UNECA, 1993). Among the contributory factors
in the deterioration of the environmental conditions in the
African continent, Drought is one of the utmost important
disasters associated with climate variability, which cause
instability in food production.
Some of the reasons for the fragility of Ethiopian
agriculture were climate change and her dependence on
rain-fed agriculture. In the country there are two distinct
growing seasons, and in recent years, due to climate change,
that has changed. Right now, the short rains have become
delayed and shorter, and the long rains equally have become
unpredictable (Catholic Relief Services report 2011).
According to Tsegaye (2012), recurrent drought shocks,
causing severe harvest failure and loss of livestock, have
adverse impacts on immediate consumption as well as long-
lasting effects (poverty persistence) on household
livelihoods. The drought years were associated with a very
low food grain production. Crop failure due to the severe
drought the warming temperatures and rainfall changes
could diminish the availability of water for crops and
shorten the growing season. The warming of a few degrees,
decrease in rainfall and increase in frequency of extreme
weathers, drought, will have an immediate and direct effect
on the agricultural sector.
By the year 2011, Global Facility for Disaster Reduction
and Recovery reported that, drought impacts include pasture
shortages, overgrazing, land degradation, decreased water
availability, and livestock diseases. All of these impacts
lead to decreased livestock productivity, crop failure in
agro-pastoral areas, food insecurity, and increased conflicts
over scarce resources. Droughts not only bring loss of life,
famine, and hardship to today’s inhabitants (during the 2006
droughts, 25-60% of livestock were killed in some areas),
but they also threaten the country’s future, as children aged
five or less are 36 and 50% (respectively) more likely to be
malnourished if they were born during a drought.
Drought has caused famine in parts of Somalia and killed
tens of thousands of people in recent months. And also
bring an impacts on agriculture include crop losses, lower
yields in both crop and livestock production, increased
livestock deaths, increases in insect infestation and plant
and animal diseases, damage to fish habitat, forest and
range fires, land degradation and soil erosion. Its impacts on
human health include increased risk of food and water
shortages, increased risk of malnutrition and higher risk of
water‐ and food‐borne diseases (Emergency Ministerial –
Level Meeting 2011).
According to National Drought Mitigation Center (2015),
drought affects all parts of our environment and our
communities and they grouped the impact as “economic,”
“environmental,” and “social” impacts. All of these impacts
must be considered in planning for and responding to
drought conditions.
Economic Impacts
Economic impacts are those impacts of drought that cost
people or money. Some examples of economic impacts
include, farmers may lose money if a drought destroys their
crops, if a farmer's water supply is too low the farmer may
have to spend more money on irrigation or to drill new
wells, ranchers may have to spend more money on feed and
water for their animals, businesses that depend on farming,
like companies that make tractors and food may lose
business when drought damages crops or livestock, people
who work in the timber industry may be affected when
wildfires destroy stands of timber, power companies that
normally rely on hydroelectric power (electricity that's

created from the energy of running water) may have to
spend more money on other fuel sources, and if drought
dries up too much of the water supply The power
companies' customers would also have to pay more (NDMC
2015).
Environmental Impacts
Drought also affects the environment in many different
ways. Plants and animals depend on water, just like people.
When a drought occurs, their food supply can shrink and
their habitat can be damaged. Sometimes the damage is
only temporary and their habitat and food supply return to
normal when the drought is over. But sometimes drought's
impact on the environment can last a long time, maybe
forever. Examples of environmental impacts include:
Losses or destruction of fish and wildlife habitat, lack of
food and drinking water for wild animals, increase in
disease in wild animals, because of reduced food and water
supplies, migration of wildlife, increased stress on
endangered species or even extinction, lower water levels in
reservoirs, lakes, and ponds, loss of wetlands, more
wildfires, wind and water erosion of soils as well as poor
soil quality (NDMC 2015).
Social Impacts
Social impacts of drought are ways that drought affects
people’s health and safety. Social impacts include public
safety, health, conflicts between people when there isn't
enough water to go around, and changes in lifestyle.
Examples of social impacts include: Anxiety or depression
about economic losses caused by drought, health problems
related to low water flows and poor water quality, health
problems related to dust, loss of human life, threat to public
safety from an increased number of forest and range fires,
reduced incomes, people may have to move from farms into
cities, or from one city to another, and also fewer
recreational activities become common (ibid)
2.4. Effort to Overcome Drought in Ethiopia
Ethiopia is experiencing the effects of climate change.
Besides the direct effects such as an increase in average
temperature or a change in rainfall patterns, climate change
also presents the necessity and opportunity to switch to a
new, sustainable development model. Therefore the
Government of Ethiopia initiated the Climate-Resilient
Green Economy (CRGE) to protect the country from the
adverse effects of climate change and to build a green
economy that will help realize its ambition of reaching
middle-income status before 2025(Green economy strategy
2011).
The country Development Cooperation Strategy between
the year 2011 – 2015 states that, response to the drought has
been good, with the government of Ethiopia. As a result of
the drought in 2011, plans to build the DRM (Disaster Risk
Management) work further, particularly in pastoralist areas,
are being linked to the already strong support incorporated
in the Feed the Future plan.
Integrated and sustainable development and utilization of
water resources by creating interconnection among different
sectors and users, ensuring fair and equitable utilization of
the resources taking into consideration the demand and
benefit of the future generation, contribute to fast and
sustainable social and economic development of the nation
through sound development strategies, mitigating the
impacts of runoff, drought and other natural hazards stand
amongst the priorities of Ethiopian water resources
management policies(MoFED,2010).
UNICEF (2015), continue to support the Government of
Ethiopia to build disaster risk management capacity in
regions affected by food insecurity and has prepositioned
emergency life-saving supplies in Addis Ababa as well as
three regional hubs to address the humanitarian needs of
125,000 people in a timely manner. Some of these supplies
are being used to initiate an immediate response in drought
affected areas.
Report from agriculture and social protection in Ethiopia
(2009), develop integrated drought risk management plan.
The plan is to apply coordinated financial instruments
tailored to different levels of risk that farmers face, thereby
enabling the government and donor agencies to respond to
livelihood stress and emergencies as effectively and
efficiently as possible – that is, to save lives and livelihoods
at the lowest cost possible (WFP, 2007).
According to Amdissaet.al, (2004) recently, the government
has promoted “livelihoods packages” that aim to support
secondary sources of income (such as beekeeping) by
smallholder households, as a way of supplementing and
diversifying household incomes against drought and other
production shocks.
Study conducted by Thomas, (2015) found that climate
variability with unexpected droughts and floods causes
serious production losses and worsens food security,
especially in Ethiopia. As a result he brought different
adaptation option and promotes new maize and wheat
varieties to be accompanied by policy interventions such as
credit and fertilizer subsidy and the result shows that the

effectiveness of available adaptation options is quite
different across the heterogeneous smallholder population
in Ethiopia. As a result, he suggest that policy assessments
based on average farm households may mislead
policymakers to adhere to interventions which are beneficial
on average albeit ineffective in addressing the particular
needs of poor and food insecure farmers.
Ethiopia country programming framework (2010-2050),
expressed four strategic objectives including achieving a
sustainable increases agriculture productivity, and
production, accelerating agriculture commercialization and
agro-industrial development, reducing degradation and
improving productivity of NR(natural resource),and
achieving universal food security and protecting vulnerable
HH from natural disasters( USAID 2011).
2.5 Empirical Evidence
A study conducted by Assefa, (2011) in East Gojjam of
Ethiopia, found that there is an expansion of farmlands to
the rangelands and cultivation of the steep and very steep
slopes. This is because of large population pressure in the
area characterized by low socio economic condition and
have low adaptive capacity if climatic hazards occurred and
also the result show that all patterns of climatic element
trends are on the position of increasing or very increasing
except the amount and duration of rainfall become on the
trend of decreasing and very decreasing position. This
demonstrated that there is a disturbance and a change in
amount, duration, intensity, and variability of rainfall
together with an increase pattern of drought. Moreover,
increased drought and flood frequency, rainfall comes early
or lately, dry up of water bodies, shortening of plants
growing period become the common phenomena.
The study conducted by Amsalu et.al, (2017) found that
economy-wide and regional effects of climate change
induced productivity and labor supply shocks in agriculture
in Ethiopia. The effects on national GDP may add up to -
8% with uneven regional effects ranging from -10% in
agrarian regions (e.g. Amhara) to +2.5% in urbanized
regions (e.g. Addis Ababa). Nevertheless, given the role of
agriculture in the current economic structure of the country
and the potency of biophysical impacts of climate change,
adaptation in the sector is indispensable. Otherwise, climate
change may hamper economic progress of the country, and
make rural livelihood unpredictable.
According to Kassaet.al, (2012) found that in the country
land productivity declined in the last 20 years. The
reduction was related to changes in rainfall. The rainfall
was extremely unpredictable and erratic with a coefficient
of variation ranging from 18 percent in the midlands to 42
percent in the lowlands. Livestock holding size and crop
yield showed a positive correlation with rainfall amount.
However, the number of pack animals significantly
increased regardless of the decreased rainfall amount. This
increase was due to farmers’ shift to off-farm activities.
Climate change has turned to be a major economic threat in
many developing countries. It severely affects poor
households in a given country and low-income countries in
general. Climate change induced productivity and labor
supply in agriculture in Ethiopia and this brought falling in
agricultural output but increasing prices for agricultural
commodities. The net effect is declining real consumption
by households. Therefore, climate change and its likely
impacts shall be accounted along with proactive measures
in national economic plans of the country (Amsalu, 2016)
Study conducted by Defferew, (2011) on the impact of
drought on livelihoods, in North Shoa, Ethiopia, reveal that
drought increases from time to time in the zone even if there
is variation between and among years and it challenges the
livelihood of the whole region. To cope up with the
impacts, societies use savings, migration, credits, selling
own assets (who own asset) and on-farm and off-farm
diversification as strategy. The coping mechanisms
provided by institutions is very weak and at its early stage
in the zone. And the coping mechanisms available in the
zone are not equally important and practiced and are
insufficient to cope with drought impacts. Though all
households in the zone are vulnerable to the disaster, the
problem is more acute on the poor, women, large size
family, and children, old and disabled. Vulnerability is
further aggravated by the decline in the fertility of land,
landlessness, unemployment, unavailability and inability of
most farmers to afford agricultural inputs, fertilizer and
selected variety of crop.
Study in Borana pastoralist area by Gezu, (2008) found that
the drought in 2007/8 was said to have started with the
comparative failure of the “belg” rains in March to May
2007. Between April 2007 and July 2008, the cattle
populations were declined from 2880 to 1297, being a
45.03% reduction of which 44.06% was due to death
reason. The drought-affected pastoralists have had to sell
around 13% of their herd in order to buy feed and veterinary
medicines for the remaining and day-to-day necessities for
their family. Furthermore, calf mortality in this area was
estimated to 69.2% (505/730) of the claves existed at onset
of the drought. Milk yield – in the study herds, initially

59.9% (266/377) of the cows fed by CARE either returned
to milk production, or began milk production following the
birth of calves while in feeding centers, however, as death
of calf always leads to a virtual cessation of milk, reportedly
only 113 were producing milk at time of the study.
According to Sara, (2010) study in Tigray region of
Ethiopia revealed that recurrent cycle of drought has an
impact on crop production, women health and education.
Furthermore, with a rapid population growth about 2.8%
per annum prevailing in the region, this pressure on the
limited natural resource for increased agricultural
production has been mounting, causing encroachment in
marginal areas. Rapid population growth, an increasing
livestock population, overstocking and restlessness cutting
down of trees have all exposed the environment to great risk
during times of drought. It is observed that there are
encouraging activities carried out by the government to
address cause and impacts of drought. It is also founded that
government intervention are effective solution in mitigating
the root cause of drought in the study region.
III. CONCLUSION
Drought can define as the deficiency of precipitation over
an extended period of time and it is related to precipitation
(meteorological), stream flow (hydrological), soil moisture
(agricultural) or any combination of the three. Ethiopia
characteristically sees three rainy seasons with varying
amounts of rainfall. Most of the region of Ethiopia severely
affected by recurrent drought which is caused by different
reasons including deforestation, high population growth,
land degradation and soil erosion. These factors mostly
aggravate the situation and this in return affect countries
agriculture production and productivities in a bad way.
Even though, the countries develop different mitigation and
cop up strategies but still the effect is there especially some
part of the region including Borena, Somalia. Thus there is
a need to address the root causes and need to shift rain fed
agriculture in to irrigated agriculture.
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