Idiro Analytics - What is Rotational Churn and how can we tackle it?
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This document discusses rotational churn, also known as spinning, where a customer gets a new subscription and SIM from a provider without informing them, making it appear as though the customer both left and joined. Rotational churn wastes resources and distorts metrics like churn rates. It is triggered by things like broken phones or desire for new phones. The document presents Idiro Fingerprinting as the most comprehensive method to measure rotational churn by analyzing stable communication patterns and identifying when a newcomer's patterns match a leaver's. Idiro then provides probability scores and consulting support to help providers address different types of spinners to ultimately reduce true churn rates.
Idiro Analytics - What is Rotational Churn and how can we tackle it?
- 1. Confidential. Copyright © Idiro Analytics, all rights reserved. 1 What is rotational churn – and how can we tackle it?
- 2. Confidential. Copyright © Idiro Analytics, all rights reserved. 2 What we’ll cover 1. Definition 2. The problem of rotational churn 3. Effects 4. Causes & categories 5. Combating spinning
- 3. Confidential. Copyright © Idiro Analytics, all rights reserved. 3 What is rotational churn? (also known as spinning) • One of your customers gets a new subscription from you • …and gets rid of the old SIM (and sometimes the phone too) • …without telling you So this customer appears on your systems as 2 people: •A leaver •A new joiner
- 4. Confidential. Copyright © Idiro Analytics, all rights reserved. 4 Rotational Churn in Context How a typical spinner is likely to behave when they change their handset Spin Churn or spin, to best new customer offer Upgrade Churn and bring their number or upgrade Brand loyalty High Low Loyaltyto phonenumber HighLow
- 5. Confidential. Copyright © Idiro Analytics, all rights reserved. 5 The Cost of Rotational Churn 1. Spinning wastes money and resources on: • Welcome packs, welcome calls… • Save / winback, 1. The Churn rate is overstated 2. Acquisition campaign success rates are overstated 3. Spinning can increase churn - many spinners are potential true churners 4. Valuable customer history data for spinners is lost.
- 6. Confidential. Copyright © Idiro Analytics, all rights reserved. 6 What Triggers Rotational Churn? All manner of things... 1. The customer’s phone is stolen or permanently lost. 2. The customer’s phone is broken. 3. The customer gets a new phone with work, from the same operator as they are currently on. 4. The customer receives a phone as an unsolicited gift 5. The customer wants a new phone e.g. because he / she perceives her phone is out of date. 6. The customer decides to change her number 7. The customer wishes to avoid a debt and stay on the same network
- 7. Confidential. Copyright © Idiro Analytics, all rights reserved. 7 Measuring Rotational Churn 4 methods: 1. IMSI / IMEI matching 2. Market research (calling customers) 3. Name & address matching 4. Idiro Fingerprinting Of the 4 methods, Idiro Fingerprinting is by far the most comprehensive. The other 3 should also be use where possible.
- 8. Confidential. Copyright © Idiro Analytics, all rights reserved. 9 Idiro Fingerprinting: the solution Communication patterns in communities are relatively stable over time.
- 9. Confidential. Copyright © Idiro Analytics, all rights reserved. 10 Idiro Fingerprinting: the solution However, if someone were to leave the community…
- 10. Confidential. Copyright © Idiro Analytics, all rights reserved. 11 Idiro Fingerprinting: the solution They leave a structural hole in the community.
- 11. Confidential. Copyright © Idiro Analytics, all rights reserved. 12 Idiro Fingerprinting: the solution If a newcomer fills this structural hole and re-establishes many of the links of the person who departed then the newcomer is very likely to be the same person who departed.
- 12. Confidential. Copyright © Idiro Analytics, all rights reserved. 13 How Idiro Identifies Spinners Principle 1: • A subscriber may change the phone number as a spinner, but this would not change his community. Principle 2: • Social networks are fairly stable over time. • The community is stable over time and everyone has his unique community.
- 13. Confidential. Copyright © Idiro Analytics, all rights reserved. 14 Output of Idiro Fingerprinting Churner Newcomer Probability that Churner and Newcomer are the same person 7941 111111 7941 222222 99.3% 7941 345345 7941 369369 98.3% 7941 191191 7941 239111 95.0% 7941 909909 7941 897722 94.6% 7941 888111 7941 349922 82,1% 7941 167167 7941 224444 76.8% 7941 611009 7941 300011 71.1% 7941 171411 7941 800022 71.0% • The Idiro Fingerprinting model matches customers to new joiners – and gives a probability score • Idiro also provides consulting support in tackling the problem of rotational churners
- 14. Confidential. Copyright © Idiro Analytics, all rights reserved. 15 Exploiting the results of Idiro Fingerprinting Measure Focus Change •Correct the headline churn rate •Correct the acquisition rate and cost per subscriber •MIS / market research on spinners to segment by: •Acquisition offer (MIS) •Retail channel (MIS) •Trigger (mkt research) •Etc. •Develop improved upgrade propositions / care strategy / communications to address different types of spin -> reduce spin and true churn rates
- 15. Confidential. Copyright © Idiro Analytics, all rights reserved. 16 For more information on rotational churn and how to tackle it, contact Idiro [email protected] www.idiro.com