S(3) Maize Growth in East and South-east Asia – Challenges and Opportunities
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The document discusses the growth and challenges of maize production in East and Southeast Asia, highlighting a significant increase in output over the past decades, particularly in East Asia. It notes that while maize yields have improved, growth rates have been slowing down, and regions like Southeast Asia have seen more rapid yield increases since the 1990s. Additionally, the document addresses the changing dynamics of maize trade in the region, with East Asia remaining a net importer, while some Southeast Asian countries have started exporting maize.
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S(3) Maize Growth in East and South-east Asia – Challenges and Opportunities
- 1. Maize Growth in East and South-east Asia – Challenges and Opportunities Zhang Shihuang, Qiu Huanguang, Lu Kaiyv, Ci Xiaoke, Li Mingshun, Zhang Degui, Liang Xiaoling, Xu Jiashun National Maize Industrial Technology RD Center, MOA Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, China [email protected] Chinese Academy of Agricultural
- 2. in Asia We Are Facing the Same Challenges demand and imports production breeding seed industry Chinese Academy of Agricultural
- 3. Maize production in East and SE Asia Chinese Academy of Agricultural
- 4. Maize production in East and SE Asia (1961-2009) 180 Maize production in Asia has been Maize out put (million ton) 160 y = 3.0 x + 6 R2 = 0.96 140 accelerating 120 100 during the past 2 80 y = 3.0 x + 3.9 R2 = 0.96 decades due to 60 y = 0.54x + 1.4 the increasing 40 R2 = 0.91 and diversifying 20 0 demands for maize 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 Eastern Asia South-Eastern Asia China
- 5. Maize Production in East and SE Asia other 31.58 13% SE Asia 36.83 16% E Asia 165.89 71% Asia 29% 71%
- 6. Maize production (million ton) in East and SE Asia (2009) Total maize output in Asia reached 234 million tons in 2009 accounted for one-fourth of the world total production 900.0 818.82 800.0 East Asia is the Maize production (million ton) 700.0 main producer of 600.0 maize in Asia 500.0 400.0 166 million tons 300.0 234.30 in 2009 200.0 165.89 164.11 100.0 36.83 20.2% of the 0.0 world’s total World Asia Eastern South- China maize production Asia Eastern Asia
- 7. Maize production (million ton) in different areas •Maize production in 900.00 800.00 East Asia comes Maize output (million ton) 700.00 600.00 mainly from China 500.00 400.00 •accounted for 99% 300.00 of East Asia’s total 200.00 out put and 20% of 100.00 the world output in 0.00 South- World Asia Eastern Asia China 1961 205.03 31.60 19.40 Eastern Asia 4.71 18.03 2009 1990 483.34 132.47 101.33 16.44 97.21 2009 818.82 234.30 165.89 36.83 164.11
- 8. Maize Production in East and SE Asia • Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam are some other main production countries of maize in Southeast Asia
- 9. Increment of maize production in the world, East and SE Asia during 1961-2009 and 1990-2009 800 755 World the average 682 growth rate of 700 Eastern Asia South-Eastern Asia Increment (%) 600 500 maize 400 299 production in East and SE 300 200 Asia is faster 124 100 69 64 0 than that of the 1961-2009 1990-2009 world average
- 10. Maize Production in East and SE Asia • 1961~2009 • maize production and area increased by 2.99 times and 50% in the world • but by 7.55 times and 101% in East Asia • and by 6.82 times and 88% in SE Asia
- 11. Maize Production in East and SE Asia • The growth rates of both yield and area have been slowing down in the last 2 decades • maize production increased by 69% in the world, but increased by 64% and 124% in East and SE Asia • Maize area increased 21% in the world, but 43% and 7% in East Asia and SE Asia
- 12. Maize yield in East and SE Asia (1961-2009) 6.0 y = 0.03x + 4.58 5.0 The trend of Maize yield ( Ton/ha) 4.0 maize yield y = 0.04x + 4.59 y=0.11x+1.0 change in 3.0 y=0.11x+0.974 East Asia was 2.0 y = 0.1x + 1.64 contrary to 1.0 y=0.03x+0.790 that in SE 0.0 Asia Eastern Asia South-Eastern Asia China
- 13. Maize Yield in East and SE Asia • Maize yield increased faster before 1990, and have been slowing down since then in East Asia (esp in China) • However, it has increased faster in SE Asia after 1990 • So the gap between East and SE Asia has been being narrower after 1990
- 14. Maize Yield in East and SE Asia • Maize yield increment was due to the: – adoption of hybrids – increase of inputs
- 15. Maize Yield in East Asia • In East Asia (especially in China) • maize yield increased by 220% with an annual gain of 104 kg/ha during 1969- 1989 • but increased by 15% with an annual gain of 35 kg/ha during 1990-2009
- 16. Maize Yield in SE Asia • In SE Asia • Maize yield increased by 99% with an annual gain of 31 kg/ha before 1990s • but after that, increased by 110% with an annual gain of 99 kg/ha
- 17. Maize Yield in East and SE Asia • Both the growth rate and the absolute growth of maize yields in decades showed a clear difference between East and SE Asia
- 18. Yield gains of maize decreasing in China SE Asia 4.4% 3.8% 2000 East Asia 2.7% 1990 2.3% 5.9% 1980 1.9% 1960 1970 4.5% 1960 1970 3.2% 1980 0.2% 1990 1.7% 2000 (Data from FAO) Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences
- 19. Maize production in China Chinese Academy of Agricultural
- 20. kg/ha Maize yields since 1950s Single-cross hybrids b=23 b=126 Stress tolerance OPVs b=14 b=89 Double-cross hybrids Year Chinese Academy of Agricultural
- 21. Maize Production in China • Maize yield in China increased by 3.4 times, with an annual gain of 93 kg/ha during the past 5 decades
- 22. Maize Production in China(略) • It should be noted that maize yield in China increased at 104 kg/ha/year before 1990s, which was even higher than that in Argentina • but after 1990, maize yield increased at 38 kg/ha/year which was much lower than the growth of 152 kg/ha/year in US and 180 kg/ha/year in Argentina • it was even lower than the gains in Vietnam, Myanmar, Indonesia and Brazil (more than 100 kg/ha/year)
- 23. Maize yields in US, Argentina and China 12 10 y=0.15x+7.0 8 y=0.11x+4.0 y=0.18x+3.8 6 4 y=0.7x+1.6 y=0.04x+4.6 2 y=0.11x+1.0 0 America Argentina China
- 24. Maize Production in SE Asia • On the contrary, maize yields have increased sharply since the mid-1990s in several SE Asian countries • the annual gains of maize yield in Indonesia, Vietnam and Myanmar are 4.1%，4.6% and 6.7% • and annual gains of 107 kg/ha，143 kg/ha and 110 kg/ha
- 25. Maize Trade in the Region
- 26. Maize Trade in the Region • Over the past half-century, the world maize trade has increased significantly • East Asia has been importing maize for a long time, and the imports continue to increase • but some of the SE Asian countries turned into maize exporters in the mid- 1980s
- 27. East Asia is a Net Importer (2009) 2008 54970- other part of the word 9021- Korea 16460- Japan 220 China -60000 -50000 -40000 -30000 -20000 -10000 0 10000 2008
- 28. East Asia is a Net Importer (2009) South-east Asia 7% 13% Japan 52% South Korea 28%
- 29. Maize Trade in the Region （略） • Japan, Korea and China were the main importers • Maize imports in Japan (16-17 million tons annually) accounted for more than half of Asia’s total imports • Korea (8-9 million tons) accounted for 28% of Asia’s total imports
- 30. Maize Trade in the Region • Imports of Japan and South Korea have been relatively stable since 1990s • China was a net export country in most years • but its export has been steadily declining in the last decade • China has become a net importer of maize in 2010 (1.5 million tons)
- 31. Conclusion--1 • Asia is a big importer of maize • Demand for maize will continue to increase in Asia
- 32. Increase the Maize Production to meet tremendous challenges
- 33. Soil Improvement Small tractors for more than 20 years and made the soil hardpan top fertility soil is 16.5 cm only Prof. Zhang Dongxing
- 34. Improve the Soil soil deep loosing tillage to use subsoiler to break soil hardpan to increase top fertility soil to return farm residue and crop straw to the soil
- 35. Population density and machine increase the population density in maize production 45,000/ha 60,000/ha farming machine new hybrids with stress tolerance and suitable to harvest machine irrigation works farmer collectives
- 36. Maize Yield and Population Density t/ha bu/ac plants/ha plants/ac 1 16 10,000 4,047 2 32 20,000 8,094 3 48 30,000 12,141 4 64 40,000 16,188 5 80 45,000 18,211 6 96 50,000 20,235 7 112 55,000 22,258 8 128 60,000 24,282 9 144 65,000 26,305 10 160 70,000 28,329 11 176 75,000 30,352 12 192 80,000 32,376 13 208 85,000 34,399 14 224 90,000 36,423 Lamkey, 2007, Beijing 36
- 37. Maize Breeding Strategies in East and SE Asia Stress tolerance Suitable to harvest with machine
- 38. Maize Breeding in China • The rate of maize yield gains in China has been reducing although the yield potential has been increasing since 1960 when single cross hybrids were introduced
- 39. What is Yield? • What is yield? -- questioned by Duvick • Yield is stress tolerance ! • Stress tolerance of hybrids has been ignored for almost three decades due to the central planning economic constitution of RD management
- 40. Risky variety Breeders tend to develop hybrids with tall stature, too much leafy, late maturity or full season, and big ears most of this kind of hybrids are risky under stress 40
- 41. Plant and ear height (Beijing and Wulumuqi， 2007-2008) 280 130 y = 3.71x + 249.5 270 R2 = 0.50 120 Plant height (cm) Ear height(cm) 260 110 y = 1.15x + 105.4 250 R2 = 0.10 240 100 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year of release Year of release Linear regression suggested that plant and ear height increased.
- 42. Maturity of hybrids delaied 72.0 Low 71.0 Mid High Maturity (day) 70.0 69.0 68.0 67.0 66.0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Era (Year)
- 43. Shelling percentage（2008） 85.0 Shelling (%) 80.0 y = -0.19x + 82.2 R2 = 0.03 75.0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year of release Shelling percentage showed a trend to reduction during 1950s-2000s, especially reduced greatly during 1980s-2000s.
- 44. 1.40 1.20 y = 0.0889x + 0.6097 Barrent tip (cm) 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 1950s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 秃尖长度 Year 44
- 46. Pioneer hybrids 2006 46
- 47. Stine Seeds, Iowa 150,000/ha Sept. 2011 have to change row spacing from 76 cm to 50 cm, to increase the population density redesigning the farming machine 47
- 48. Risky variety • Breeders also tend to develop hybrids with excessive stay green and late maturity during the past 4 decades • caused application of chemical fertilizers in a non-judicious manner • reducing the efficiency of N utilization
- 49. Heterosis • The contribution of heterosis to yield gains is higher in China than that reported in American hybrids • the contribution of heterosis to yield gains showed weak increase with the year of hybrids release
- 50. Heterosis incerased (1970-2000) 90 Het(%) 80 70 Relative heterosis (%) 60 66% 69% 50 40 y = 0.09x - 107 R2 = 0.02 30 20 10 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year of release (11 environments, 2007-2009) Chinese Academy of Agricultural
- 51. Schnell, F.W. 1974. Trends and problems in breeding methods for hybrid corn. p. 86–98. In Proc. of the British Poultry Breeders Roundtable, 16th. Birmingham, England. 51
- 52. Duvick, D.N. 1999. Heterosis: Feeding people and protecting natural resources. p. 19–29. 52 J.G. In Coors and S. Pandey (ed.) The genetics and exploitation of heterosis in crops. ASA, Madison, WI.
- 53. Campbell, B.T., D.T. Bowman, and D.B. Weaver. 2008. Heterotic eff ects in topcrosses of modern and obsolete cotton cultivars. Crop Sci. 48:593–605. 53
- 54. Reorienting the Strategy • Maize breeders both in China and SE Asian countries are now actively reorienting the strategy of maize breeding, and develop stress resilient and input responsive hybrids
- 55. Reorienting the Strategy • increase yield potential • enhance stress tolerance • increase population density in both crop production and breeding nursery
- 56. Strategies for breeding in Asia--1 • continue to introduce, improve and utilize exotic germplasm to broaden the genetic base in maize breeding programs • to enhance genetic variance in breeding populations • strengthen the pre-breeding efforts
- 57. Strategy --2 • germplasm should be divided into 2 heterotic groups or 2 alignments • based on the current genetic backgrounds, which will keep the SCA effects in two groups
- 58. Duvick, 2005 NSS SS 58
- 59. Strategy --3 • improve the germplasm within each group and push them to the opposite directions in terms of gene frequency • which will enhance and accumulate GCA effects in breeding populations of germplasm
- 60. Strategy -- 4 • improve germplasm and select inbred lines under high population density and other stress conditions based on G×E effects to enhance stress tolerance • double density for inbred line development • plus 15,000/ha for evaluation of new hybrids (Troyer,1981)
- 61. Strategy -- 5 • multi-location testing and information management • science and art • data and experience • modern machine and IP technology • pipeline and profolio
- 62. Conclusion--2 • public • private • pre-breeding • pipeline • profolio
- 63. Conclusion--3 • improve the soil and infrastruture • improve hybrids to meet challenges • stress tolerance is more important than heterosis for hybrid yields • GCA is more important than SCA • reorient the strategy of maize breeding programs
- 64. Chinese Academy of Agricultural
- 65. Demand for maize in China - 2020 • 230 million tons by 2020 • Processing 58 mt (26%) • Feeding stuff 151 mt (70%) Chinese Academy of Agricultural
- 66. Three concepts of yield • Genetic yield (maximum) —The highest yield record • Attainable yield —average yield in Maize Variety Regional Evaluation Trials • Actual yield — statistic data issued by MOA
- 67. The differences between yields and yield potential great Genetic yieldyield Genetic yield Genetic yield Genetic Attainable yield Attainable yield Attainable yield Actual yield Actual yield Actual yield Attainable yield Attainable yield Attainable yield Actual yield 227/120/127 860/95/30 Dr. RF Hu