Sask Poly The Future - a Jig-Saw August 2018

SomeBig Patterns WhichWill
Impact Us All…
Stephen Murgatroyd, PhD FBPsS FRSA

Agenda
 A Brief History of the Future – The Big Picture
 Developments in Higher Education
 Five Big Questions

TheFuture
 “The future isn’t what it used to be..” Yogi
Berra
 “Predictions are very difficult, especially
if they are about the future”. Niels Bohr
 “The future will be better tomorrow..”
Dan Quayle

National
Demographics
 Canada’s birthrate is below replacement
 Ageing population – more seniors than children in
school / Increased lifespan.
 Dependency ratio shifting from 4:1 to 2:1 by 2036
 Indigenous youth growing at a faster rate than the rest
of Canada
 Immigration needs to double for the economy to
continue to grow.

Saskatchewan
Demographics
 Fertility rates in Saskatchewan are amongst the
highest in Canada.
 1.17 million people in the Province in 2018 and the
Premier says he’d like to get to 1.5million by 2030
 Indigenous Peoples and Skilled immigrants key to
growth – currently 10.5% (with a significant number of
second generation immigrants)
 Declining rural population – growing urbanization
 Ageing population – over 100 over 100 in
Saskatchewan.

GlobalShifts
 Global population to reach 9.5 billion by 2050 (or
sooner) – major implications for the environment
(especially water).
 New middle class – 2.2 billion new middle class –
mainly in India, Asia and parts of Africa
 Economic power shifting from US / Northern Europe to
Asia – already 50% of the world’s $1 billion companies
are located in Asia.
 Worlds major cities – there are 424 major cities
generating +50% of world GDP – 325 are in Asia

Environment
 More frequent severe weather events
 Climate change dynamics
 Water supplies for 9.5 billion people fragile
 Degradation of oceans
 Consumption – the 3 planets problem
 Ensuring that 9.5 billion people can be fed

Technology
Shifts
 Artificial Intelligence
 3D Printing enabling adaptive manufacturing
 Stem-Cell Therapies and Gene Splicing
 Robotics
 Blockchain
 Human Implants – Cognitive Implants
 Neuroplasticity and Cognitive Science

NewKindsof
Organizations
 Aggregators – amazon.ca / eBay / Etsy
 “Ubers” – Uber, 99Designs
 “Pop-Up’s” - Pop up Restaurants, Performance Spaces,
Artworks, Maker-Spaces
 Uber more dominant future model than the
Hierarchical organization

NewFormsof
Work
 Gig economy now 40% of the Canadian, Australian and
New Zealand economies
 75% of all jobs advertised in Australia since 2015 have
been part-time
 Universities and colleges run on their gig workers

Globalization
BMW MINI
 Supply chains are global – look at the BMW Mini. 300
options for exterior trim - 15,000,000,000,000,000
possible combinations.
 Parts delivered to Oxford Just in Time 0 – enough for 1
shift.
 3,600 parts in a standard Mini (up to 4,875 in a Mini
Cooper S) – from 47 countries.
Nespresso
 Coffee from 24 countries available
Penn State MBA
 Professors online from 18 countries

Austerity
 US, UK, Netherlands, Japan, Australia, and Canada)
and two emerging markets (China and India) have a
$400 trillion retirement savings shortfall that will
become growingly evident and at crisis point in 2050.
 Total government debt from all governments is
currently (June 2018) US$23.9 trillion.
 In the US, to deliver current levels of public services
(everything from education to health care to pensions)
to the projected population in 2030, taxpayers will need
to find an additional US$940 billion. In the UK, they’ll
need to find another US$170 billion, and in Canada
they’ll need to find another US$90 billion.

Inequality
 Canada is experiencing growing inequality – our top 100
CEO’s earn the average Canadian wage ($49,510) by 11:47
a.m. on January 3—the first working day of the year.
 Fewer than 90 families in Canada hold roughly as much
wealth as everyone living in Newfoundland and Labrador,
New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island collectively
owns.
 1 in 7 Canadian residents live in poverty and 1.3 million
children live in poverty.
 UNICEF rated Canada 17thout of 29 wealthy
countries due to the number of children living in poverty
in Canada and 26th out of 35 wealthy countries for overall
child inequality.

Identity
 iGen experiencing significant identity issues showing
in mental health challenges and issues around
meaning and purpose – suicide levels are up and
mental health issues are significant:
 An estimated 1.5 million Canadian children and youth
(aged 5-24) are affected by mental health issues
 Approximately 6% of young people experience and
anxiety disorder serious enough to warrant treatment
 Suicide is the second leading cause of death for
Canadians between the ages of 10 and 24
 Seniors – who are now living longer – are questioning
the meaning of their life while experiencing loneliness

KeyDevelopmentsin
HigherEducation

Steve’sCurrent
TopTen
1. Blended learning is now the norm in F2F teaching
2. Online learning is growing 2-3 times faster than F2F
in the developed world
3. MOOC’s are a big deal
 81 million people took one/more of 9,400 courses from
850+ colleges and universities in 2017
 Growing offer of degrees through MOOCs
 Rapid growth of micro-credentials offered via MOOC
platforms
4. Micro-Credentials – modular, stackable learning –
key to emerging current landscape, especially for
skills and trades
5. Growth of assessment only qualifications / degrees

6. Rapid growth of online program management
companies (OPM’s) like 2U, Pearson, Coursera –
enabling F2F institutions and others to have high
quality, online courses and programs rapidly produced
and deployed.
7. Growth of OER based offers – e.g. OUUK – and IBM
Watson’s use of OER as the basis of their free offer to
school teachers (Teacher Advisor)
8. Predictive analytics increasingly used for recruitment,
retention work.
9. Learner mobility as a policy driver – EU and Australia
strongly focused on transferability, trans-national
qualifications, portability of qualifications.
10. Growth of collaborative programs – partnership based
certificates, diplomas and degrees (with other
educational institutions or private sector)

Steve’sNext10
1. Assessment as the “new black” – using automated
item generation, automated marking systems and
”on demand” assessment to create new ways of
recognizing learning – competence, understanding
and capability based.
2. Growing use of automated content generation
systems – “smart” writing – and AI technologies
3. Significant growth of responsive/ adaptive /
automated student advising and support systems.
4. Rich accountability for learning organizations –
legally defensible assessment of capabilities will be
the “acid” test.
5. Shift from current transcript / student record
systems to blockchain based systems.

6. Explosion of modular, stackable, competency-based
learning – learners creating their own programs
reflecting their learning needs.
7. Emerging systems of global transferability – an
engineer is an engineer.
8. Growth of uber-like learning organizations – e.g.
Woolf University (AI and Blockchain enabled)
9. Public: Private Partnerships will spur the growth of
work-based accreditation of learning.
10. New forms of accountability for performance of
schools, colleges, polytechnics and universities from
Government and Industry – the skills agenda

FourScenariosfortheFuture
Winners
and
Losers
Winner
Takes All
A
Designed
Future
Status
Quo with
Less
Open Enclosed
Stasis
Turbulence

5Big
Questions
 How fast can you as a Polytechnic adapt to fast
changing circumstances? How agile are you?
 How will you deal with rapid changes in the nature of
skills and competencies – technology and population
changes will drive it. What looks like a defined trade
now may not look the same five years from now – e.g.
construction trades.
 How good are you at enabling First Nations learners to
be outstanding? Similarly, how equipped are you to
deal with a significant growth in demand from 1st
generation immigrants for competency recognition and
learning?
 Who do you want to partner with in the world?
 How can you strengthen the core notion of being a
polytechnic?

Sask Poly The Future - a Jig-Saw August 2018

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