School Enrollment Brief: EPIC

EDUCATION POLICY INITIATIVE at CAROLINA 1
The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Introduction
As the 2020–21 school year approached, North Carolina families
faced tough choices about the schooling of their children.
COVID-19 had closed schools for the final months of the
2019–20 school year and districts were making decisions about
whether to open under a hybrid model or with fully remote
instruction. Shifts to remote instruction in the spring had caused
many problems for families, including a lack of technology
and internet access, worrying about their children’s academic
development, and struggling to balance school, work, and
childcare responsibilities. Against these struggles, families needed
to weigh the health risks of their children returning to in-person
schooling. In this uncertainty, families had to make choices
about whether their children would return to the school they
previously attended, switch to a different school (e.g. a virtual
school, a charter, or a private school), or begin home schooling.
Individually, these schooling decisions are critically important to
students’ academic learning, social-emotional development, and
receipt of social supports. Collectively, these enrollment decisions
have broad implications for educational outcomes. School
enrollment is the largest determinant of school funding, and
although North Carolina did not penalize schools for enrollment
drops in 2020–21, losses of students may result in future funding
challenges for schools. Likewise, shifts away from traditional
public schools may have longer-term impacts on the growth
of charter, private, and home schools in the state. Changes in
enrollments for particular groups of students may also cause
imbalances in certain grade levels (i.e. a small kindergarten class
School Enrollment Changes in North Carolina During the
COVID-19 Pandemic
In this research brief, we examine changes in fall 2019 to fall 2020 enrollment in North Carolina schools. Our analyses consider
changes in enrollment by school sector, the distribution of enrollment changes, and how enrollment is related to characteristics
of districts, schools, and students. From our analyses there are five key takeaways: (1) Traditional public schools saw sizable
enrollment declines in fall 2020, while charter and home schools experienced increased growth; (2) Enrollment losses were
largest in kindergarten with smaller declines in other elementary and middle school grades; (3) Enrollment decreases were
spread broadly across the state, but some districts and schools experienced particularly large declines and may be more at
risk for funding and operational concerns; (4) Enrollment declines were larger among urban and less economically distressed
districts and among schools with higher state report card grades and lower concentrations of economically disadvantaged and
students of color; and (5) Different student subgroups show different patterns of transitions, with white students and non-
economically disadvantaged students more likely to exit public schools, while Hispanic students had fewer entries into public
schools and Black and economically disadvantaged students had more transitions to virtual schools. These findings should
inform policymakers and educators as they address educational concerns created by the pandemic. In particular, policymakers
should be aware of funding and operational challenges among schools with reduced enrollment and the potential for increased
segregation and concentrations of poverty.

followed by a very large class), affect racial and socioeconomic
segregation, slow educational progress (e.g. if students are unable
to access needed services), and lead some students to become
disconnected from school.
Motivated by the critical need to understand the impacts of
COVID-19 on schools and students, we use administrative data
from the North Carolina Department of Public Instruction
(NCDPI) to assess enrollment changes in K–12 public schools.
In particular, we address the following questions: (1) What are
the changes in enrollment by education sector? (2) How are
enrollment changes distributed across districts, schools, and grade
levels? (3) How are enrollment changes related to characteristics
of districts and schools? and (4) What are the characteristics of
students no longer enrolled or newly enrolled in public schools
or who transitioned to virtual schools? With these analyses, we
provide a rigorous and nuanced perspective on K–12 enrollment
changes to inform conversations around school funding, student
achievement, and equity.
Background
In this research brief, we focus on fall 2020 enrollment in North
Carolina schools1
and how that differs from expected enrollment.
Specifically, we calculate enrollment changes in two ways. First,
using data from fall 2019 and fall 2020, we calculate enrollment
changes as the percentage difference in enrollment between
the two years. This approach is straightforward and easy to
understand but does not account for trends in enrollment. For
example, certain districts may have been experiencing steady
enrollment increases in recent years. Failing to adjust for such
trends could result in an inaccurate depiction of true enrollment
changes. Therefore, as a second approach, we use five years of
pre-pandemic data2
to identify enrollment trends by district,
school, and grade level. We adjust for these trends by calculating
the percentage change in enrollment from fall 2019 to fall
2020 for each district, school, and grade level. From that basic
calculation, we subtract the average percent change in fall-to-fall
enrollment across the previous five years. With this approach, we
identify differences between fall 2020 enrollment and expected
enrollment had trends continued.
These calculations let us examine enrollment by sector (e.g.
traditional, charter) and how enrollment changes are distributed
across districts, schools, and grade levels. Furthermore, with these
calculations, we assess the characteristics of districts and schools
experiencing enrollment changes. In these analyses, we focus
on rurality (urban versus rural), district opening status (hybrid
versus fully remote), the economic health of the county,3
and
measures of school performance and demographics. Finally, we
use student demographic and program participation data to detail
the characteristics of students who (1) were enrolled in North
Carolina public schools in 2019–20 but are no longer enrolled
in 2020–21;4
(2) are new to North Carolina public schools in
2020–21; and (3) transitioned to district-operated virtual schools
in 2020–21. Overall, these analyses extend prior work in North
Carolina5
by more rigorously calculating fall 2020 enrollment
changes and by assessing the characteristics of districts, schools,
and students experiencing those enrollment changes.
What are the Changes in
Enrollment by Education Sector?
Figure 1 displays fall-to-fall percent enrollment changes across
all public schools in North Carolina, for traditional public schools,
charter schools, and home schools over the last five years.6
Statewide, enrollment in public schools (traditional and charter,
combined) fell by almost 25,000 students (1.6 percent) in the fall
of 2020.This is in contrast to a previous pattern of small year-
to-year enrollment increases (an average increase of about 3,700
students or 0.25 percent annually).
Fall enrollment in traditional public schools was relatively flat
across the 2016–17 through 2019–20 school years. However, in
fall 2020, enrollment in traditional public schools fell by nearly
2.5 percent — from 1.43 million students in fall 2019 to 1.39
million students in fall 2020. By comparison, total enrollment in
charter schools has been on the rise. Over the last five years, fall
enrollment in charter schools has increased by approximately
7–13 percent, annually. In fall 2020, charter school enrollment
increased 9 percent — from approximately 108,000 students in
fall 2019 to 118,000 students in fall 2020.This growth may be
1
Fall 2020 enrollment data, provided by NCDPI, was pulled from the Powerschool data portal at the end of September 2020.This data differs from enrollment data for
the other school years we analyze, which is provided at the end of the school year and may include information on demographics and identification for special programs
from later in the school year.We acknowledge that students enrolling in North Carolina public schools after the beginning of the school year may not be included in
our fall 2020 data.
2
Enrollment data for the 2015-16 to 2019-20 school years is provided at the end of the school year by NCDPI and includes indicators for whether each student was
enrolled in a particular school at six different points in the school year.We limit our data to students who are marked as in membership for “first day fall” in order to
create the greatest comparability to data from fall 2020.
3
Please see nccommerce.com/grants-incentives/county-distress-rankings-tiers for the 100 county economic health ratings.
4
This excludes students in the 12th or 13th grades in 2019-20.
5
For examples, see ednc.org/2020-10-22-adm-enrollment-data-down-across-north-carolinas-public-school-districts, wral.com/wake-county-state-record-k-12-
enrollment-declines/19534546 or ncdemography.org/2021/02/15/understanding-declines-in-nc-public-school-enrollment.
6
These data are simple percent changes in fall-to-fall enrollment and do not adjust for enrollment trends.

attributable to existing charter schools enrolling more students (in
existing grades or new grade levels) and/or new charter schools
opening.Therefore, we also display percent enrollment changes
for existing charter schools and grade levels — i.e. the change
from the previous year within schools and grades within schools
that were operating in both years. For existing charter schools and
grades, enrollment changes were relatively constant (between 2.5
and 3.3 percent) for the previous school years but increased to 4.8
percent for 2020–21.These data reveal that increases in charter
school enrollment are due to both increased enrollment in existing
charter schools/grades and the opening of new charter schools.
While the final numbers are not yet available, preliminary
data from the North Carolina Department of Administration
indicates that the rate of home schooling is also on the rise.7
Between July 1, 2019 and November 1, 2019, the Department
of Administration received 6,220 notices of intent to operate a
home school. By comparison, during the same period in 2020,
they received 16,790 notices of intent.8
Using these data, coupled
with the number of home schools and the estimated number of
home school students for the 2015–16 to 2019–20 school years,
we estimate the number of home school students in the 2020–21
school year.9
This estimate suggests that home school enrollment
increased over 12 percent in the 2020–21 school year compared
to increases between 5 and 8 percent for prior school years.This
represents an increase of approximately 19,000 students in home
school in fall 2020 compared to increases of approximately 8,000
students in prior school years. Overall, the enrollment values in
Figure 1, suggest that some families are pulling their children out
of traditional public schools for other schooling options.This may
have longer-term implications for enrollment in these sectors and
further segregation in schools.
How are Enrollment Changes
Distributed Across Districts,
Schools, and Grade Levels?
In this section, we consider the distribution of enrollment changes
across districts, schools, and grade levels in North Carolina.With
these analyses we assess whether certain districts/regions were
particularly impacted by enrollment declines, provide further details
on the magnitude of enrollment changes for districts and schools,
and examine how enrollment changes varied by grade level.
Figure 2 presents adjusted changes in district-level enrollments
in fall 2020.10
These data are from traditional public schools only
(excluding charters). Overall, this analysis shows that enrollment
losses were widespread across the state and not concentrated in
a few districts.We find that most districts experienced adjusted
enrollment declines between 0–5 percent, with many districts
in theTriangle,Triad, and Charlotte regions experiencing 2.5–5
percent enrollment drops.A small number of districts, in the
northeast and far western parts of the state, experienced adjusted
enrollment declines greater than 5 percent. Lastly, Figure 2 shows
7
The North Carolina Department of Administration also tracks the number of students attending private schools.These data are not yet available for the 2020-21
school year.
8
Data provided by the Department of Administration in response to a public records request.
9
The North Carolina Department of Administration tracks the number of home schools and estimates the number of home school students in each year, but data for
2020-21 are not yet available. In order to estimate the number of home school students for the 2020-21 school year, we assume that the number of new home school
students increased proportionally to the number of notices of intent to operate a home school for the 2019-20 and 2020-21 school years.
10
As districts in different areas of the state are experiencing different rates of ongoing enrollment growth or loss, adjusted changes in enrollment more accurately capture
departures from existing trends.
Figure 1: Enrollment Changes Over Time for Traditional Public Schools, Charter Schools, and Home School
Note: This figure displays percent enrollment changes over time for all North Carolina public schools, traditional public schools only, all charter schools, existing charter schools and
grades, and home schools (estimated).
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
2016–2017 2017–2018 2018–2019 2019–2020 2020–2021
Traditional Public School All Charter Existing Charter School and Grades Home School (estimated)
All Public Schools

that 21 districts experienced adjusted enrollment gains for fall
2020 — mostly between 0–2.5 percent. Many of the districts
experiencing adjusted enrollment gains are small and located in
rural areas.11
Figures 1 and 2 focus on average enrollment changes and do not
consider the variance of such changes across districts and schools.
As such, Figure 3 presents the distribution of enrollment changes
by showing the mean, median, 25th and 75th percentile, and the
range (excluding outliers).12
These distribution data come from
both basic and adjusted enrollment calculations.At the district
level, we find less variance in fall 2020 enrollment changes. For
example, in our adjusted enrollment calculation the median
enrollment change is -1.6 percent and the range into which
nearly all districts fall is -6.4 to 3.5 percent. Given that schools are
much smaller than districts, there is more variation in fall 2020
enrollment changes at the school level.13
In particular, adjusted
enrollment changes for traditional public schools are -4.3 percent
at the median, with a range of -25.7 percent to 16.5 percent.
Lastly, at the far right of Figure 3, we display the variance in fall
11

Many of the districts experiencing adjusted enrollment gains have experienced downward trends in enrollment for the previous years, so the change in enrollment in fall
2020 may not represent a gain in actual raw numbers of students.
12
Outliers are excluded from the range using the standard definition of a data point as an outlier if it is more than 1.5 times the interquartile range from the boundary of
the interquartile range (i.e. the 25th or 75th percentile).At the district level there are 5 and 3 outliers, among traditional public schools there are 122 and 164, and
among charter schools there are 27 and 24.This means that for charters fewer than 15% of schools are outside the range shown and for traditional public schools and
districts fewer than 10% are outside the range shown.
13
Some schools may experience enrollment losses due to the opening of new schools in their district or nearby charter schools.The new schools report for the 2020-21
school year on the NC Educational Directory and Demographical Information Exchange (EDDIE) shows the opening of 8 charter schools, 11 traditional public schools,
and 11 virtual schools within LEAs.
Figure 2:The Distribution of Enrollment Changes at the District Level (Traditional Public Schools Only)
Note: This figure displays adjusted enrollment changes for each school district in North Carolina. These data are for traditional public schools only and do not consider charter schools
in the calculations.
Figure 3:The Distribution of Enrollment Changes at the District and School Level
Note: This figure displays the distribution of enrollment changes — 25th percentile, median, 75th percentile, and the range (excluding outliers) — for school districts (traditional public
schools only), traditional public schools, and existing charter schools/grades. We present basic percent changes in enrollment and percent changes adjusted for recent enrollment trends.
30%
-30%
0%
20%
10%
-10%
-20%
District Level Adjusted
School Level: Traditional Public
District Level
School Level: Charter – Existing
Grades/Schools Adjusted
School Level: Charter – Existing
Grades/Schools
School Level: Traditional Public Adjusted
0 to 2.5% increase
0 to 2.5% decrease
2.5 to 5% increase
5 to 10% decrease
2.5 to 5% decrease
PERCENTAGE
CHANGE
FROM
PREVIOUS
YEAR
-2.62%*
-1.56%*
-4.69%* -4.31%*
2.58%*
0.34%*
*Indicates Median Percentage

2020 enrollment changes for existing charter schools and grade
levels.14
Without adjustments for enrollment trends, the median
enrollment change is 2.6 percent, with a range from -12.8 to
22.4 percent.After adjusting for enrollment trends over time, the
median enrollment change for existing charter schools/grades is
-0.3 percent, with a range of -18.7 to 16.3 percent.These analyses
show that even where overall enrollment losses were smaller (e.g.
charter schools, districts overall) some schools and districts saw
large enrollment losses that, if sustained, may cause future funding
and operational concerns.
Figure 4 presents changes in fall 2020 enrollment — pooling
data for traditional and charter schools — by grade levels.
Whether calculating simple percent changes or percent changes
adjusted for recent enrollment trends, we find sharp declines
of approximately 9.5 percent in kindergarten enrollment.This
translates to approximately 11,000 fewer students enrolled in
kindergarten in fall 2020.To the extent that these families delayed
kindergarten entry, rather than completing kindergarten in
private or home school settings, this indicates that the 2021–22
kindergarten cohort may be especially large. Schools may need to
prepare for increased staffing and other needs at the kindergarten
level for the 2021–22 school year. Other grade levels show more
modest enrollment changes. Enrollment in grades 1–5 is down
approximately three percent, while adjusted enrollment in grades
6–8 is down two percent.
Conversely, enrollment in high school grades (9–12) is up nearly
two percent. Compared to earlier grade levels, high schoolers
may be more affected by the secondary effects of the COVID-19
pandemic on grading and graduation requirements. Perhaps as a
result, there is considerable variation in the changes in enrollment
across high school grades.Taking into account differences in
cohort sizes,15
9th grade had very little change in enrollment,
while 10th and 11th grades saw an increase in enrollment between
2 and 4 percent. Finally, enrollment in 12th grade fell in the fall of
2020. More evidence is needed to more fully understand the effect
of the COVID-19 pandemic and various accommodations made
in spring 2020 on the grade progression and enrollment of
high schoolers.
How are Enrollment Changes
Related to Characteristics of
Districts and Schools?
To deepen our understanding of enrollment changes, we assess
whether certain types of districts and schools experience larger
enrollment declines.At the district level, Figure 5 displays adjusted
changes in fall 2020 enrollment by rurality, economic designation
(i.e.Tier 1, 2, and 3 counties), and whether the district opened
the 2020–21 school year with Plan B (hybrid) or Plan C (fully
remote) instruction. Overall, there are two key takeaways from
these data. First, urban and economically stronger districts (Tier
3) experienced larger adjusted enrollment declines. For example,
adjusted enrollment was down -0.60 percent inTier 1 counties
and -2.55 percent inTier 3 counties.This suggests that decisions
about whether to exit or delay entry into traditional public
schools may be related to economic well-being and/or a greater
14

Many charter schools continue to add new grade levels after opening. Focusing on existing grade levels within existing charters better reflects enrollment changes that
may be influenced by the pandemic rather than planned growth in the grade ranges served by schools.
15
Variation in cohort size can result in differences in the number of students enrolled in a particular grade year to year. In particular, North Carolina changed the cut-off
date for kindergarten entry in 2009 resulting in a smaller cohort of students in 11th grade during the 2020-21 school year.We calculated a set of enrollment changes
that adjust for these differences in cohort size to more accurately reflect the changes in enrollment in high school due to COVID-19.
Figure 4: Enrollment Changes in Fall 2020 by Grade Level (Traditional and Charter Schools)
Note: This figure displays percent enrollment changes in fall 2020 by grade level. We display basic percent changes and adjusted percent changes (adjusting for recent enrollment
trends). The data include traditional public schools and charter schools.
Percentage Change Adjusted Percentage Change
Kindergarten
1st – 5th
6th – 8th
9th – 12th
PERCENTAGE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS YEAR
-12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4%
-9.62%
-9.54%
-3.45%
-2.93%
-0.40%
-2.25%
1.79%
1.72%

Figure 5: Enrollment Changes in Fall 2020 by District Characteristics (Traditional Public Schools Only)
Note: This figure displays percent enrollment changes in fall 2020 by characteristics of districts, including rural vs. urban, economic tier, and school reopening plan. We display adjusted
percent changes (adjusting for recent enrollment trends). The data include traditional public schools only.
Rural
Urban
Rurality
Tier 1
Tier 2
Economic
Tier
Tier 3
Plan B
Plan C
Reopening
Plan
-3.0% -2.5% -2.0% -1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0%
-1.31%
-2.08%
-0.60%
-1.71%
-2.55%
-1.52%
-1.41%
availability of other educational options (e.g. charter schools
and private schools). Second, there was a minimal difference in
adjusted enrollment changes between districts opening with Plan
B versus Plan C instruction. Here, it is important to remember
that these results are based on enrollment data pulled at a particular
point in fall 2020. It is possible that enrollment data from later in
the school year, as districts changed their opening status, would
show greater differences in adjusted enrollment.
To extend these district-level analyses, Figure 6 (page 7) presents
adjusted changes in fall 2020 enrollment by school characteristics:
the percent students of color, the percent economically
disadvantaged, and the school performance grade.16
These data are
for traditional public schools and charter schools.The top panel
of Figure 6 indicates that adjusted declines in fall 2020 enrollment
were smallest in schools with the highest concentrations of
students of color — approximate declines of 4.5 percent versus
more than 6 percent for schools with fewer students of color.The
middle panel of Figure 6 shows that adjusted enrollment declines
were larger for schools with the lowest and highest concentrations
of economically disadvantaged students. Finally, the bottom panel
of Figure 6 illustrates sharp differences in adjusted enrollment
declines by school performance grades. Schools earning an ‘A’
performance grade experienced adjusted enrollment declines
of nearly 7.5 percent in fall 2020. By comparison, adjusted
enrollment declines were less than 5 percent in schools rated
‘B-F’.These patterns are largely consistent with patterns among
districts, suggesting that more advantaged schools saw larger losses
in enrollments, possibly due to a greater availability of other
enrollment options for their students.
What are the Characteristics of
Students No Longer Enrolled
or Newly Enrolled in Public
Schools or Who Transitioned
to Virtual Schools?
In this section, we extend our analysis by describing the
students who either exited North Carolina public schools,
entered North Carolina public schools, or transitioned
to a virtual option within their district. For each of these
transitions, we examine the percent of students within
subgroups of Black, Hispanic, white, Limited English
Proficiency (LEP), exceptional, economically disadvantaged,
and non-economically disadvantaged students who exited,
entered, or transitioned to virtual schools.17
Figure 7 (page 7) shows the percent of students, overall and
within each subgroup, who attended North Carolina public
schools in the 2019–20 school year but were not enrolled
in the fall of 2020.We compare these values to the percent
16

Percent students of color and percent economically disadvantaged come from the 2019-20 school year. Because there were no standardized tests (EOGs/EOCs) in
2019-20, school performance grades come from the 2018-19 year.
17

Data on economic disadvantage is not available for the 2020-21 school year so is not displayed for students who entered North Carolina public schools in 2020-21.

Figure 7: Students Exiting within Subgroups for 2018–19 to 2019–20 and 2019–20 to 2020–21 (Traditional and Charter Schools)
Overall Enrollment
Black Students
Hispanic Students
White Students
LEP Students
Exceptional Students
Economically Disadvantaged
Non-economically Disadvantaged
Note: This figure displays the percent of students within each student subgroup in the 2018–19 and 2019–20 school years who were not enrolled in North Carolina public schools in
the subsequent school year. Students in grades 12 or 13 in the initial year are excluded. The data include traditional public schools and charter schools.
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%
PERCENT OF EXITING STUDENTS WITHIN SUBGROUP
5.24%
5.16%
5.37%
3.77%
4.25%
4.96%
6.47%
4.94%
6.14%
5.01%
5.01%
5.64%
4.52%
5.38%
5.81%
4.97%
2019–20 to 2020–21 2018–19 to 2019–20
Figure 6: Enrollment Changes in Fall 2020 by School Characteristics (Traditional and Charter Schools)
Lowest Quartile
Second Quartile
Third Quartile
Highest Quartile
Percent
Students
of
Color
Percent
Low
Income
Students
A
B
C
D
F
School
Performance
Grades
-9% -8% -7% -6% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0%
Note: This figure displays percent enrollment changes in fall 2020 by characteristics of schools. Based on school level data from 2019–20, we divide schools into quartiles based on
the percent of students of color and percent of low-income students. School performance grades come from 2018–19. We display adjusted percent enrollment changes (adjusting for
recent enrollment trends). The data include traditional public schools and charter schools.
Lowest Quartile
Second Quartile
Third Quartile
Highest Quartile
-6.06%
-6.01%
-6.37%
-4.53%
-6.27%
-4.86%
-5.37%
-6.41%
-7.42%
-4.87%
-4.32%
-4.91%
-4.64%

of students who attended in the 2018–19 school year but
were not enrolled in the fall of 2019.18
By comparing to the
percent of students exiting between 2018–19 and 2019–20, we
can assess the extent to which the number of exits between
2019–20 and 2020–21 were unusual. Overall, the percent of
students exiting is very similar across the two pairs of years
examined — 5.24 percent between 2019–20 and 2020–21
versus 5.16 percent between 2018–19 and 2019–20. However,
there are notable differences between student subgroups. Black,
Hispanic, LEP, exceptional and economically disadvantaged
students were all less likely to exit between 2019–20 and
2020–21 (relative to between 2018–19 and 2019–20), with
differences in the percent exiting between -0.63 and -1.60
percentage points. In contrast, white students are 1.53
percentage points more likely to exit and non-economically
disadvantaged students are 0.84 percentage points more likely
to exit between 2019–20 and 2020–21. Similar to the analysis
of changes within districts and schools, this analysis suggests
that more advantaged students may be more likely to exit
public schools.
Figure 8 shows the percent of students, overall and within
each subgroup, who entered North Carolina public schools
in the fall of 2020 compared to students who entered in
the fall of 2019.19
Overall, there was a 2.5 percentage point
decrease in the percent of students who entered in the fall
of 2020 compared to the fall of 2019.This decrease translates
to more than 26,000 fewer new students in fall 2020.This
change varies somewhat across student subgroups, with Black
and white students both seeing decreases of approximately 2
percentage points in the percent of entering students. Hispanic
students saw a 4.08 percentage point decrease in the percent
of entering students.We also present changes in the percent
of newly entered students among those identified as LEP and
exceptional.However, we present these changes with caution
as they may represent reductions in the number of students
being identified as eligible for these services rather than
actual reductions in enrollments.We observe a 1.5 percentage
point decrease in the percent of entering students who are
identified as exceptional20
and a greater than 13 percentage
point decrease in the percent of entering students among
those identified as LEP.This large change in the number of
18

Students in 12th or 13th grade in the 2019-20 and 2018-19 school years, respectively, are excluded from this analysis as they would not be expected to remain enrolled
in school in the subsequent year.
19

Students were considered to “enter” if they did not attend North Carolina public schools in the previous school year (2019-20 and 2018-19, respectively). Some of these
students may have attended North Carolina public schools previously.
20

We also note that a larger percentage of exceptional students who remained enrolled between the 2019-20 and 2020-21 school year were not identified as exceptional
in the second year compared to the previous pair of years (24% no longer identified as exceptional in fall 2020 compared to 9% no longer identified in fall 2019).
Figure 8: Students Entering within Subgroups for 2018–19 to 2019–20 and 2019–20 to 2020–21 (Traditional and Charter Schools)
Note: This figure displays the percent of students within each student subgroup in the 2019–20 and 2020–21 school years who were not enrolled in North Carolina public schools in
the previous school year. The data include traditional public schools and charter schools. ‘*’The numbers for LEP students and exceptional students should be interpreted with caution
as the data for 2020–21 was collected early in the school year and students may not yet have been identified for services.
Overall Enrollment
Black Students
Hispanic Students
White Students
LEP Students
0% 5%
PERCENT OF ENTERING STUDENTS WITHIN SUBGROUP
10.46%
12.96%
10.28%
2019–20 to 2020–21 2018–19 to 2019–20
10% 15% 20% 25%
12.27%
10.78%
14.86%
10.21%
12.25%
8.81%*
22.02%
6.50%*
8.01%

entering students among those identified as LEP may reflect
that entering students simply have not been identified as
needing services at the point in the 2020–21 school year at
which our data was recorded.These data identify a role for
policymakers and educators to ensure that students in need
of English language services are being properly identified
and supported in remote and hybrid settings.This analysis
suggests that the losses in enrollment in North Carolina public
schools are driven primarily by fewer new entrants rather than
increased exits, except among white and non-economically
disadvantaged students, for whom both an increase in exits and
a decrease in entry are factors.
The final analysis in this section, shown in Figure 9, examines the
percent of students within each subgroup who transition into
virtual schools.21
These data are only available within districts
that opened a new virtual school for the 2020–21 school year.
Eleven stand-alone virtual schools were opened in nine districts
for the 2020–21 school year.22
Within these districts, 6.22 percent
of students who were enrolled in the 2019–20 school year
transitioned to district operated virtual schools in fall 2020.The
percent of students making this transition was higher among
Black and economically disadvantaged students — greater than 7
percent of each group transitioned to virtual schools. Conversely,
fewer LEP, white, non-economically disadvantaged, and Hispanic
students made this transition, with the lowest percentage among
LEP students (3.59 percent).This pattern is notably different
from the pattern for students who exited North Carolina public
schools, with white and non-economically disadvantaged students
more likely to exit North Carolina public schools and less likely
to attend district operated virtual schools than other student
groups. It is unclear whether this pattern of transitions to virtual
options will generalize to other districts where the virtual option
is associated with a base school or whether these patterns of
virtual enrollment will sustain after the pandemic. However, taken
with the other results in this section, these results suggest that
enrollment changes during the pandemic may increase racial/
ethnic and socioeconomic segregation with different subgroups
of students making different enrollment choices.
21

Students in 12th or 13th grade in the 2019-20 and 2018-19 school years, respectively, are excluded from this analysis as they would not be expected to remain enrolled
in school in the subsequent year.
22

Many districts operated virtual options associated with their traditional in person schools as part of district wide participation in Plan C or as an option available to
families in districts with hybrid learning plans.
Figure 9: Students Transitioning toVirtual Schools within Subgroups 2019–20 to 2020–21 (Traditional Public Schools in
Districts with New Stand AloneVirtual Schools)
Overall Enrollment
Black Students
Hispanic Students
White Students
LEP Students
Economically Disadvantaged
Non-economically Disadvantaged
0% 1%
6.22%
7.57%
5.83%
5.22%
3.59%
5.98%
7.14%
Note: This figure displays the percent of students within each student subgroup in the 2019–20 school year who entered a virtual school in the 2020–21 school year as a percentage
of the number of students within that subgroup in districts with new virtual schools. Students in grades 12 or 13 in the initial year are excluded. The data include traditional public
schools only in districts opening a new virtual school in the 2020–21 school year.
PERCENT TRANSFERING TO VIRTUAL SCHOOL WITHIN SUBGROUP
2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8%
5.34%

Key Findings and Implications
The COVID-19 pandemic continues to have wide ranging,
disruptive effects on schools across the state and the nation.
Amidst health concerns, the balancing of work and parental
responsibilities, and the new challenges of fully remote or hybrid
instruction, many families have been forced to rethink decisions
about the schools their children attend.These decisions matter to
the educational success of individual students and have broader
implications for school funding, achievement, and equity.To
better understand these schooling decisions, we investigated
enrollment changes in North Carolina schools in the 2020–21
school year.These analyses reveal several noteworthy findings
with implications for policy and practice.
Enrollment changes in fall 2020 varied considerably across
different school sectors.Traditional public schools enrolled nearly
35,000 fewer students in fall 2020 than in fall 2019. In contrast,
between fall 2019 and fall 2020, enrollments in charter schools
grew by nearly 10,000 students and enrollments in home schools
increased by approximately 19,000 students.These shifts suggest
that COVID-19 may exacerbate existing enrollment declines for
traditional public schools and accelerate growth in other sectors.
Exploring the distribution of enrollment changes, we found
that enrollment losses affect most districts and schools in North
Carolina.While many of these losses were relatively small, certain
districts and schools experienced much larger enrollment declines.
If sustained, these enrollment losses may cause funding and
operational concerns.The largest enrollment declines occurred
in kindergarten, with more modest enrollment drops in other
elementary (1–5) and middle grades (6–8).These results may
have longer-term implications if younger students do not return
to public schools in future years. Conversely, these results also
suggest that public schools may need to prepare for an influx of
new students, especially kindergarteners, in 2021–22.
Geographically, these enrollment losses were spread across the
state, with a pattern of slightly larger losses in the Triangle,Triad,
and Charlotte regions where more of the state’s urban districts
are located. In keeping with this result, an analysis of enrollment
losses by district and school characteristics suggests that changes
in enrollment are related to characteristics of the population.
Urban districts and districts that were the least economically
distressed (Tier 3 counties) experienced larger enrollment losses
than other districts. Likewise, schools with the fewest students
of color, the fewest low-income students, and the highest
state report card grades had larger enrollment declines.These
differential losses may worsen school segregation and lead to
higher concentrations of students from historically marginalized
populations in schools.
Finally, student level analyses show that subgroups exited and
entered public schools at different rates in 2020–21. Similarly,
subgroups had different rates of transferring to virtual schooling
options.White and non-economically disadvantaged students
were more likely to exit public schools, whereas Hispanic students
experienced a decrease in new entries into public schools and
Black and economically disadvantaged students had an increased
likelihood of transitioning to virtual options. Once again, these
differential patterns of movement create concerns about increased
racial/ethnic and socioeconomic segregation in schools. In
particular, the loss of non-economically disadvantaged students may
contribute to concentrations of poverty and reductions in school
funding associated with average daily membership. Policymakers
should monitor the effects of these enrollment shifts to ensure
that schools have the necessary resources to provide an adequate
education for all students as they recover from the pandemic.

Authors: Sarah C. Fuller and Kevin C. Bastian (March 2021)
EPIC is an interdisciplinary team that conducts rigorous research and evaluation to inform education policy and practice.We produce evidence to guide data-driven
decision-making using qualitative and quantitative methodologies tailored to the target audience. By serving multiple stakeholders, including policy-makers, administrators
in districts and institutions of higher education, and program implementers we strengthen the growing body of research on what works and in which context.
Our work is ultimately driven by a vision of high quality and equitable education experiences for all students, and particularly students in North Carolina.
publicpolicy.unc.edu/epic-home
For More onThisTopic
Sorrells,A. (2020, October 22).Average daily membership
is down 5% since last year across North Carolina’s public
school districts. Education NC. ednc.org/2020-10-22-
adm-enrollment-data-down-across-north-carolinas-public-
school-districts
Tippett, R. (2021, February 15). Understanding declines
in NC public school enrollment. Carolina Demography.
ncdemography.org/2021/02/15/understanding-declines-in-
nc-public-school-enrollment
Walkenhorst, E. & Arthur, K. (2021, February 18).Wake
County, state record K-12 enrollment declines.WRAL.
wral.com/wake-county-state-record-k-12-enrollment-
declines/19534546
Bassok, D. & Shapiro,A. (2021, February 22). Understanding
COVID-19-era enrollment drops among early grade
public school students. Brown Center Chalkboard.The
Brookings Institution. brookings.edu/blog/brown-center-
chalkboard/2021/02/22/understanding-covid-19-era-
enrollment-drops-among-early-grade-public-school-students

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