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The Impact of Social Media on the 2010 US Elections
The document discusses the significant impact of social media on the 2010 U.S. elections, highlighting how it allowed the Democratic Party, particularly Obama, to effectively mobilize and engage supporters. It compares previous election cycles, noting the rise of social media tools and their influence on voter turnout, especially among younger demographics. Key examples include the successes of online campaigns and the discrepancies in social media presence between candidates, indicating potential electoral implications.
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The Impact of Social Media on the 2010 US Elections
- 1. The Impact of Social Media on the 2010 US Elec8ons Jonathan Kopp Partner & Global Director, Ketchum Digital 31 August 2010
- 2. 2 In thelast two cycles, Dems added 55 House seats & gained a majority. The question isn’t whether GOPs will pick up seats in 2010, but how many. Latest Horserace Polls
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- 4. campaigns or commerce: it’s all COMMUNICATIONS
- 5. PAST IS 5 Produced by Roy Disney PROLOGUE Ike, 1952. The “Living Room Candidate” Eisenhower Answers America
- 6. PENDULUM 6 swings BACK LBJ, 1964. “Daisy” (Change = Risk) Produced by Doyle, Dane Birnbach
- 7. 40 years later, the world awoke to SOCIAL MEDIA 7 In Q3 2003, Dean raised about $15 million (mostly small dona8ons), a record for a Democra8c presiden8al candidate. By mid-‐November, the Howard Dean Meetup group boasted more than 140,000 members.
- 8. 8 Were it not for the Internet, Barack Obama would not be president. -‐Arianna Huffington The tools changed between 2004 & 2008. Obama won… every single caucus state that maFers… because he was able to move thousands of people to organize. -‐Joe Trippi
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- 11. 11 I amlearning to get online myself, and I will have that down fairly soon, getting on myself…. I don’t e-mail. I’ve never felt the particular need to e-mail. John McCain, as quoted in the New York Times, 13 July 2008
- 12. 12 “MyBO” “Thecampaign’s official stuff they created for YouTube was watched for 14.5 million hours. To buy 14.5 million hours on broadcast TV is $47 million.” Joe Trippi
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- 14. 2008 2009 14 The SINCEREST form of FLATTERY
- 15. 15 GOPs now HILL TWEETS Dominate the • 60% of Couse, GHill eslected lose to 5users many tOPs. as Dems. • In the H apitol OPs end c Twi3er X as are G weets Major SoMe • Senate GOPS out tweet Dems by 35%. Media Pladorms HILL VIDEO • 89% of congressional GOPs have YouTube channels (only 74% of all Hill Dems). • GOPs own 8 of the top 10 most viewed and subscribed congressional YouTube channels.” HILL FACEBOOK • House Minority Leader John Boehner has 75,443 FB fans; • Majority Leader Pelosi has a mere 20,445. • The "Impeach Pelosi” page has 80,000+.
- 16. 16 The 2010 US Tool Kit Facebook TwiTer Hidden Party AffiliaUon Blogs YouTube Share E-‐mail sign up Text sign up Video The 2010 Flickr Social Media Less Commonly Google Buzz FourSquare Toolkit Used MulUlingual Campaign Site
- 17. Spanish Language 17 TwiTer Obscured Facebook Party YouTube AffiliaUon Flickr RSS Blog & Toolbar Email & SMS Sign-‐up Rapid Response Donate Act 2010 Video Embedded Social Media Toolkit Share
- 18. NEVADA 18 Will WASHINGTON Harry Sharron PaTy Dino COLARADO Ken Michael SOCIAL MEDIA Reid Angle Murray Rossi Buck Bennet Facebook x x x x x x be the TwiTer x x x x x x DIFFERENCE Campaign Site x x x x x x Spanish Site x x MAKER Blog x x x x in 2010 YouTube x x x x x x Flickr x x x x Google Buzz x Share x x x x x x E-‐mail sign up x x x x x x Text sign up x x x x x Video x x x x x x FourSquare x Hidden Party x x x x x AffiliaUon
- 19. 19 Scof Brown (R-‐MA), Special Elec8on & Social Media BROWN BEAT COAKLEY ACROSS SOCIAL MEDIA 10:1 In Web traffic 3:1 in TwiTer followers 10:1 YouTube views 4:1 in Facebook followers in SOCIAL MEDIA AS PREDICTOR? The 1st poll to correctly predict Brown’s January 19 win was a social media poll on January 14, when tradiUonal polls were sUll showing a close race.
- 20. Gordon David Nick 20 UK Conserva8ves Facebook Brown x Cameron x Clegg x Dominate Social Media TwiTer Site Campaign x x x x x x Cameron Bounces Brown Blogs x x YouTube x x Flickr x Share x x E-‐mail sign up x x x Text sign up x x x Video x x Download x Incumbent ignores YouTube & Flickr (10 Downing page censored viewer comments)
- 21. Juan Manuel Santos Antanas Mockus Facebook x x 21 Turning the Tide TwiTer x x in Colombia Campaign Site My Space x x x YouTube x x Santos: Flickr Share x x x x From 12% down to a win E-‐mail sign up x Text sign up X in final 50 days Video x x Mockus: Loss afributed to social media presence that lacked authenHc engagement http://www.networkworld.com/news/2010/080510-social-media-aids-the-election.html
- 22. 22 Have We Learned Anything
- 23. the POWER of • Obama outspent McCain 10-‐1 online. digital + social media: – esUmated $8 million MICROTARGETING, – ≥ 50% of all 2008 online poliUcal ad EMPOWERMENT & spending MOBILIZATION
- 24. but OLD MEDIA s8ll RULES • Obama spent $250MM+ on general elecUon ads, versus $130MM by McCain. • Secret weapon: Radio – Obama outspent McCain 5-‐1.
- 25. • 24mm youth (18-‐29) voted in 2008 • 2.2mm more youth than in 2004 In hindsight, • Highest youth turnout ever (est. 49-‐55%) • About 66% of them voted for Obama it seems inevitable…
- 26. • 24mm youth (18-‐29) voted in 2008 • 2.2mm more youth than in 2004 In hindsight, • Highest youth turnout ever (est. 49-‐55%) • About 66% of them voted for Obama it seems inevitable… DIFFERENCE MAKERS: VISION STRATEGY MESSAGE DISCIPLINE AUTHENTIC ENGAGEMENT INNOVATION & INTEGRATION
- 27. • Did one side’s consistent usage of 27 social media have an electoral impact? • Did it increase youth turn out? • Did it maTer in the midterms, where the tradiUonal turnout is small numbers of seniors? • Did it help less funded candidates? Some Ques8ons • Did it widen the gap for well-‐heeled for Amer the candidates? Polls Close • What’s next?
- 28. The Impact of Social Media on the 2010 US Elec8ons Jonathan Kopp Partner & Global Director, Ketchum Digital 31 August 2010