Some key considerations relating anastas
- 1. Some Key Considerations RelatingSome Key Considerations Relating to the Deployment of Nuclearto the Deployment of Nuclear Powerplants in AustraliaPowerplants in Australia Presented at the 35Presented at the 35thth Annual Meeting of theAnnual Meeting of the Australasian Radiation Protection SocietyAustralasian Radiation Protection Society Adelaide, South AustraliaAdelaide, South Australia October 2010October 2010 George Anastas, ConsultantGeorge Anastas, Consultant PE, CHP, FHPS, DEE, FARPSPE, CHP, FHPS, DEE, FARPS PastPast--President, Health Physics SocietyPresident, Health Physics Society 11021 BridgePointe, NE11021 BridgePointe, NE Albuquerque, NM 87111Albuquerque, NM 87111 USAUSA
- 2. 22 Ye Olde DisclaimerYe Olde Disclaimer • The views expressed herein reflect only the views and opinions of the author. These may or may not represent or reflect the views and opinions of any past, current or future employer(s), professional societies, my wife, children, sons-in-law, daughter-in- law, present and future grandchildren, friends or colleagues. • George Anastas, Albuquerque, New Mexico October 2010
- 3. 33 Some FactsFacts • The fissioning of atoms produces energy which can be used to generate steam, to drive a turbine generator to produce electricity. • There are hundreds of operating nuclear powerplants worldwide. • There are over 100 nuclear powerplants in the construction or planning process.
- 4. 44 Additional Facts • kWhr (energy) is growing in Australia (?4%/yr since 1990). • Peak electrical load (in MegaWatts) is growing in Australia.
- 5. 55 More Facts • There are advantages to using nuclear power to produce electricity. (reduced “greenhouse gases”, diversity of fuel mix, displace additional coal fueled units, brown and black coal =70% of electricity generation, …) • Australia emits ~1.5% of the world’s GHG. • There are disadvantages to using nuclear power to produce electricity. (capital costs, infrastructure needs, dis-economies of scale, …)
- 6. 66 A Quote from George (Not Anastas) • As George Santanya (Jorge Agustín Nicolás Ruiz de Santayana y Borrás) a Spanish-American philosopher, essayist, poet, and novelist once said, “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”
- 7. 77 Prelude • If, for a variety of reasons, it is in the “public interest” to pursue the development of nuclear powerplants in Australia, then…
- 8. 88 Australia Is in a Unique (and envious) Situation • Australia can critically evaluate the path forward, learning from the mistakes/errors missteps of others. One does not have to be first, but one should try to be the best. George Anastas, October 2010
- 9. 99 Suggestions/Considerations (1) • Select one or two vendors/types of reactors (proven track record for design, construction and operation, do not go for a large size, unique design, etc.). • Assure management has experience overseeing massive projects over a long time horizon. • Train/educate utility staff (assignment overseas, particularly for operators). • Select a turbine generator that “fits” with the characteristics of the steam produced by the NSSS. • Be wary of language and culture of vendor(s).
- 10. 1010 Suggestions/Considerations (2) • Insurance (limit liability?, property) • Size of powerplant (operating reserve {single largest generator + fraction of peak load}, sharing reserves, transmission constraints, cooling water, market forces, baseload, etc.). • Siting considerations (bank sites, ?Jervis Bay?) • Financing/Capital cost (Loan Guarantees?). • Construction time
- 11. 1111 Suggestions/Considerations (3) • Begin to develop the infrastructure (education, training, nuclear engineering, assignment to similar nuclear powerplants). • Begin to develop the INDEPENDENT regulatory structure (and training for the regulatory staff). • Regulatory Agency = Absolutely and Unambiguously, No Promotion. • Regulatory Agency=Transparent, Arms Length (do not let the dingoes tend the sheep!).
- 12. 1212 Suggestions/Considerations (4) • Enticing offshore experienced human resources with nuclear power project experience to support available Australian human resources (?) • Turnkey arrangements • Russia’ recent arrangements with Turkey – Finance – Operation
- 13. 1313 The Ugly Difficult, The BadThe Ugly Difficult, The Bad and The Goodand The Good (Apologies to(Apologies to Clint Eastwood, et al)Clint Eastwood, et al)
- 14. 1414 Chaos (?) at the Vendor LevelChaos (?) at the Vendor Level • KEPCO, PWR • AREVA, PWR • Westinghouse, PWR • General Electric, BWR • Toshiba • Hitachi • Mitsubishi Heavy Industries • AECL, CANDU • Numerous Joint Ventures • Russia (?) VEER • China (?) • India (?)
- 15. 1515 NotNot--SoSo--Minor Reliability ItemsMinor Reliability Items • Turbine generator supplier (have to match NSSS steam conditions with TG, so TG supplier and NSSS vendor have to talk) • Forced Outage Rates for NSSS • Forced outage rates for TG
- 16. 1616 Other NotOther Not--So Minor ItemsSo Minor Items • Enrichment Services (?) • Low/Intermediate level waste disposal (Ngapa land at Muckaty Station??) • Spent Fuel Storage/Disposal • Financing (1000 MWe, $US 5-10 B, 5-10 years construction time period)
- 17. 1717 Additional NotAdditional Not--SoSo--Minor ItemsMinor Items • A/E Services • Construction (QA) • Outage management • Cooling water (cooling towers, perhaps: fresh water cooling, don’t think so: that leaves once through sea water) • Then because of the above, thermal discharge
- 18. 1818 The BadThe Bad • Anything that is not UGLY Difficult and not Good
- 19. 1919 The GoodThe Good • Do it right (correctly) the first time.
- 20. 2020 EpilogueEpilogue • Beware the regulator that promotes. • Beware the promoters. • Base decisions on facts, not wishful thinking. • If it is too good to be true, then … • Since there may be VAST HUGE sums involved at an unknown financial risk, perhaps proceed carefully in an incremental risk adverse approach.
- 21. 2121 Epilogue (2)Epilogue (2) • What organization owns/operates the power reactor? – Australian Private industry – Foreign entity (like Russian/Turkish arrangement) – Australian Federal government • Federal Authority • Federal Company – Some combination
- 22. 2222 Ye Olde DisclaimerYe Olde Disclaimer • The views expressed herein reflect only the views and opinions of the author. These may or may not represent or reflect the views and opinions of any past, current or future employer(s), professional societies, my wife, children, sons-in-law, daughter-in- law, present and future grandchildren, friends or colleagues. • George Anastas, Albuquerque, New Mexico October 2010