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![Citations and References
"CCMC Hosted Models at a Glance." Community Coordinated Modeling Center. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), n.d.
Web. 31 July 2013. <http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/models/models_at_glance.php>.
"Details and graphs for CME0070." CACTUS A software package for 'Computer Aided CME Tracking'. Ed. Astronomy and
Astrophysics 425 (2004) and Astrophysical Journal 691 (2009). European Space Agency, 14 Sept. 2011. Web. 31
July 2013. <http://sidc.oma.be/cactus/catalog/LASCO/2_5_0/qkl/2011/09/CME0070/CME.html>.
Eddy, John A. The Sun, the Earth, and Near-earth Space: A Guide to the Sun-earth System. [Washington, D.C.]: National Aeronautics
and Space Administration, 2009. Print.
Solar Physics Group, Trinity College Dublin, and E-INIS, the Irish National e-Infrastructure. "14 September 2011."
SolarMonitor.org. N.p., 14 Sept. 2013. Web. 31 July 2013.
"MODELS AND COUPLING." CISM: Center for Integrated Space Weather Monitoring. National Science Foundation, n.d. Web. 31
July 2013. <http://www.bu.edu/cism/CISM_Thrusts/modelsandcoupling.html>.
NASA Goddard Space Weather Research Center, National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Space Flight Center,
and SPENVIS - Space Environment, Effects, and Education System. "iNTEGRATED SPACE WEATHER ANALYSIS
SYSTEM." iNTEGRATED SPACE WEATHER ANALYSIS SYSTEM. Marlo Maddox, n.d. Web. 31 July 2013.
Richardson, Ian, and Hilary Cane. "Near-Earth Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections Since January 1996." THE ACE SCIENCE
CENTER. N.p., 16 July 2013. Web. 31 July 2013.
<http://www.srl.caltech.edu/ACE/ASC/DATA/level3/icmetable2.htm>.
<http://www.solarmonitor.org/index.php?date=20110914>.
Solar Physics Group, Trinity College Dublin, and E-INIS, the Irish National e-Infrastructure. ”17 September 2011."
SolarMonitor.org. N.p., 17 Sept. 2013. Web. 31 July 2013. http://www.solarmonitor.org/index.php?date=20110917.
Space Weather Prediction Center, comp. Space Weather Highlights 12 September - 18 September 2011. Rept. no. 1881. Boulder:
Space Weather Prediction Center, 2011. Print.](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/eschompspaceweathertalk2-130820081152-phpapp01/75/Space-Weather-Forecasting-Tracking-and-the-Effects-of-Earth-Directed-Solar-Phenomena-35-2048.jpg){kind=tracking}
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Space Weather: Forecasting, Tracking, and the Effects of Earth Directed Solar Phenomena
This document provides an overview of space weather phenomena, their effects on Earth, and how they are forecasted and tracked. It describes various solar events like solar flares and coronal mass ejections that can impact Earth. These events are monitored using instruments in space. Models then use data to predict the speed and arrival of solar material. When events hit Earth, they can cause auroras, radiation storms, and issues for technologies. Continuous research improves understanding and forecasting of space weather, which is important as society increasingly relies on technologies affected by these solar events.
In this document
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Introduction to space weather, its forecasting, tracking, and effects of solar phenomena on Earth.
Definition and description of solar flares, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and solar wind, including their impacts and characteristics.
Various effects of space weather on Earth, including geomagnetic storms, radiation absorption, and realistic concerns for technology and health.
Increasing reliance on technology necessitates research in heliophysics and understanding space weather threats.
Methods for forecasting space weather, including monitoring solar activities, using modeling systems, and tracking solar wind parameters.
Details of tracking solar events, satellite data usage, and evidence of magnetic phenomena during solar wind interactions. Description of forecasting models like WSA-ENLIL and BATS-R-US used in predicting solar wind and related effects.
Summary of solar events' effects on Earth, emphasizing the need for monitoring and improved predictive capabilities.
Session for questions and a list of citations and references used in the presentation.
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Space Weather: Forecasting, Tracking, and the Effects of Earth Directed Solar Phenomena
- 1. Space Weather Forecasting, Tracking,and Effects of Earth Directed Solar Phenomena Photo from Sasilssolutions, Shutterstock
- 2. Overview • Phenomena • Effects • Forecasting • Instrumentation • Events Photo: Aurora Borealis – WP Pack Burning-Liquid
- 3.
- 4. Phenomena Anything powerful andEarth directed! Events of interest to forecasters: • Solar Flares • Coronal Mass Ejections • Ongoing Solar Wind
- 5. o Explosive brighteningsin magnetically active regions in chromosphere and corona o Root cause of space weather o highly energetic electromagnetic radiation o solar energetic particles (SEPs) o Often initiate CMEs o Energy of several hydrogen bombs and temperature of sun's core! Solar Flares ZAPP!! Photo from SDO 7/4/2012
- 6. Coronal Mass Ejection(CME) • Expulsions of large segments of outer corona • Expand to be larger than sun itself • Typical carries about a billion tons of plasma • Typical speed 400 km per second • 2-4 days to arrive at 1 AU Photo: Sun Stroke NASA
- 7. Solar Wind • Ambientsolar wind always present, slow or fast • Fast streams usually originate at poles and coronal holes • Spiral towards Earth due to sun's rotation (called The Parker Spiral) • Fast and slow streams can interact and cause compression and rarefaction zones Photos: Solar Wind junkdrome.org Schematic illustration of a fast stream interacting with a slow stream Hundhausen 1972
- 8. Incoming! • Preceding CMEmaterial o SEPs and high speed electrons (MeV) o x-ray, EUV, and radio wave radiation • ICMEs (plasma from sun) o Create shockwaves interacting with solar wind o Magnetic structures – you shall see! § dynamic pressure sheath § magnetic clouds/flux ropes • Varies every time Photo from NASA
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- 10. How can spaceweather affect us?
- 11. That's probably notgoing to happen though, in case I worried you...
- 12. Earth’s Shield isUp • Magnetosphere repels most charged matter • Geomagnetic storms result from magnetic reconnection • Plasma particles from ICME (protons/electrons) held in radiation belts • Ionospheric O2 and N2 absorb far spectrum x-ray and EUV radiation • Stratospheric ozone absorbs UV radiation
- 13. Results/Realistic Concerns • AuroraBorealis! (and Australis) • Compass fluxuations • Expansion of thermosphere (atmospheric drag, ionization of atmosphere) • Single Event Upsets (SEU) • cumlative radiation and astronaut safety o Extra-vehicular activity for extended time o Mars or other space travel out of magnetosphere • Flight delays over poles
- 14. Fund Us! Our increasingdependence on microtechnology, satellite transmissions and electronics will make the effects of space weather a greater threat to our society and make heliophysics research of quintessential importance.
- 15.
- 16. Forecasting- What atWhere? Monitor sun for flares, CMEs, and SEP events Measure parameters of events Predict speed and direction of event based on sun’s magnetic field 27 day cycle forecast of solar conditions Monitor solar wind and plasma parameters density, velocity, B field orientation Spacecraft ahead to anticipate arrival times Monitor Magnetosphere and radiation belt conditions Predict expected onset, intensity and duration of geomagnetic storm
- 17. Programs and Facilities NationalSpace Weather Program (NSWP) interagency initiative to speed improvement of space weather services partnership among academia, industry, and government National Science Foundation National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Departments of Defence, Energy, Transportation, and Interior Space Radiation Analysis Group (SRAG) Johnson’s Space Center NASA monitor space radiation environment for astronaut exposure Track cumulative radiation EVA planning Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) National Weather Service (NWS) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admin (NOAA) occurrence of magnetic storms and auroral displays
- 18. Space Weather Modeling Hostedby Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) community access to modern space science simulations situated at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) slew of Agencies The integrated Space Weather Analysis System (iSWA) web-based dissemination system for NASA combines forecasts and observational data specify and forecast space environment’s and impacts for NASA missions situated within CCMC Magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) Codes used in Forecasting Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model ENLIL model SWMF
- 19. Solar Heliophysics Observatory LASCOCMEs solar wind AIA solar imager stereoscopic and “rear sun” data Images and Multimedia in Support of AGU 2011 Fall Briefing Dr. Daniel Baker
- 20. Tracking an Event FunnySolar Pictures: Solar Flares from Sun Spots Freaking News.com
- 21. Event • Detected bySDO AIA and HMI imagery • Region 1289 • 9/13 23:32-23:46 • (max at 23:33) • Potential Field Source Surface Model • GOES spacecraft X-ray flux SDO HMI at 235906 C B B
- 22. SDO AIA 193Å 2011 9/13 22:00 – 9/14 1:30
- 23. Earth Directed HaloCME at 9/14 T000000 First detected by LASCO at 23:36
- 24. WSA-ENIL Forecast Model PredictedUnremarkable Event Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) • Nick Arge at Wright Patterson Air Force Base • Semi empirical - approximates the outflow at the base of the solar wind • Uses magnetogram data over solar rotation • Creates synoptic map Enlil • D. Odstrcil at University of Colorado • 3D MHD numerical model • Computes ambient solar wind outflow Storm Predictions • Earth-directed CME is measured in coronagraph (speed, direction, and size) • "cone" representation is injected into model • basis for CME's arrival time at Earth, its intensity, and its duration
- 25.
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- 27.
- 28. Evidence of MagneticCloud/Flux Rope? Zurbuchen & Richardson 2006 Dasso et al. 2006, 2007, Ruffenach et al. 2012
- 29. ACE Solar WindData Time Plot Sept 16-19th Magnetic Field (°) Latitude/Longitude Velocity (km/s) Density (N/cm-3) Temperature (K) Magnetic Field Strength (nT) Total BT Azimuthal BY Distance BX Elevation BZ Shock Dynamic Pressure Sheath Magnetic Cloud! End?
- 30. ICME Hits Magnetosphere GOESspacecraft at geosynchronous orbit rotate with Earth (35786 km) Major proton flux and electron emptying in radiation belts Kp at high altitudes skyrocket Kp Index Electron Flux Proton Flux
- 31. Block-Adaptive-Tree-Solar wind-Roe-Upwind-Scheme (BATS-R-US) Y-CutSWMF Magnetosphere • Dr. Tamas Gombosi et al. At University of Michigan • Models near-earth space environment (magnetosphere) • 3D MHD Roe's Approximate Riemann Solver • Input is solar wind plasma magnetic field measurement propagated from monitoring satellite's position • Output is magnetospheric plasma parameters (density, pressure, velocity, magnetic field, electric currents) and ionospheric parameters • Backbone of Space Weather Modeling Framework
- 32. Aurora From Karen C.Fox at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Taken from international space station crossing over southern Indian Ocean Sept 17th 12:22 to 12:45 ET Auroral light Atmospheric Optics What Causes an Aurora? Rachelle Oblack
- 33. Summary • Comes froma variety of large scale, earth directed events • Radiation, particles, and magnetic fields from plasma, and solar activity, affect earth’s atmosphere, space environment, and technologies • Ever increasing modeling, research, and instrumentation for monitoring solar activity, have improved our ability to predict and track solar phenomena’s propagation and effects on earth
- 34.
- 35. Citations and References "CCMCHosted Models at a Glance." Community Coordinated Modeling Center. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), n.d. Web. 31 July 2013. <http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/models/models_at_glance.php>. "Details and graphs for CME0070." CACTUS A software package for 'Computer Aided CME Tracking'. Ed. Astronomy and Astrophysics 425 (2004) and Astrophysical Journal 691 (2009). European Space Agency, 14 Sept. 2011. Web. 31 July 2013. <http://sidc.oma.be/cactus/catalog/LASCO/2_5_0/qkl/2011/09/CME0070/CME.html>. Eddy, John A. The Sun, the Earth, and Near-earth Space: A Guide to the Sun-earth System. [Washington, D.C.]: National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 2009. Print. Solar Physics Group, Trinity College Dublin, and E-INIS, the Irish National e-Infrastructure. "14 September 2011." SolarMonitor.org. N.p., 14 Sept. 2013. Web. 31 July 2013. "MODELS AND COUPLING." CISM: Center for Integrated Space Weather Monitoring. National Science Foundation, n.d. Web. 31 July 2013. <http://www.bu.edu/cism/CISM_Thrusts/modelsandcoupling.html>. NASA Goddard Space Weather Research Center, National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Space Flight Center, and SPENVIS - Space Environment, Effects, and Education System. "iNTEGRATED SPACE WEATHER ANALYSIS SYSTEM." iNTEGRATED SPACE WEATHER ANALYSIS SYSTEM. Marlo Maddox, n.d. Web. 31 July 2013. Richardson, Ian, and Hilary Cane. "Near-Earth Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections Since January 1996." THE ACE SCIENCE CENTER. N.p., 16 July 2013. Web. 31 July 2013. <http://www.srl.caltech.edu/ACE/ASC/DATA/level3/icmetable2.htm>. <http://www.solarmonitor.org/index.php?date=20110914>. Solar Physics Group, Trinity College Dublin, and E-INIS, the Irish National e-Infrastructure. ”17 September 2011." SolarMonitor.org. N.p., 17 Sept. 2013. Web. 31 July 2013. http://www.solarmonitor.org/index.php?date=20110917. Space Weather Prediction Center, comp. Space Weather Highlights 12 September - 18 September 2011. Rept. no. 1881. Boulder: Space Weather Prediction Center, 2011. Print.
- 36. Other Images Radiation EffectsChildren of the Atomic Bomb: UCLA School of Medicine Failed Russian Mars Probe Crashes into Pacific Ocean Michael Carroll Sandy’s Blackouts Pressure Utilities to Bury Power Lines Tina Fineberg/AP Photo Saints of the Apocalypse Matt Stewart Sci Fi – Post Apocalyptic Wallpaper Alpha Coders BLT 3/2 TRAP exercise vr033 Space and Space Travel News harsi Day space on surface effects: Photo of the damaged transformer windings John Kappennman, Meta Tech. 4g phones disrupting gps webby Prevalent Pipeline Repair Methods and Their Drawbacks Underground Solutions (UGSI) Re: Is it time to start prepping Twinkies? majorhavoc Stock Photo - empty wallet - woman with no money in purse shopping. Female shopper in clothes store upset crying as she is out of money. Funny image of mixed race Caucasian / Asian woman. ariwasabi Distress Signal Jajasoon