The Future of Learning and Doing:
Cognitive Assistants in Smart Service Systems
Jim Spohrer, IBM
Director, Global University Programs (GUP) and Cognitive Systems Institute Group (CSIG)
UC Santa Cruz, CA USA, Tuesday November 3th, 2015
http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/spohrer-ubi-learn-20151103-v2
11/3/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM UPward - University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
1
Today’s Talk
• What are cognitive assistants?
• What are smart service systems?
• What are better building blocks?
11/3/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
2
History
11/3/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
3
Learning Platform Evolution (1995)
11/3/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
4
What are Cognitive Assistants?
11/3/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
5
360,000 100,000 120,000 60,000 150,000
Four L’s of Cognitive Assistants
• Language
• Learning
• Levels (of confidence in recommendations)
• Limbs
11/3/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
6
What are Smart Service Systems?
11/3/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
7
What are better building blocks?
11/3/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
8
2035
2055
11/3/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
9
1955 1975 1995 2015 2035 2055
2035 one human brain/2055 all human brains
11/3/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
10
Cognitive Assistants for all occupations
are beginning to appear
11/3/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
11
11/3/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
12
Cognitive Assistants
for all occupations
Occupations = Many Tasks
11/3/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
13
Watson Discovery Advisor
11/3/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
14
Simonite, T. 2014. Software Mines Science Papers to Make New Discoveries. MIT. November 25, 2014.
URL: http://m.technologyreview.com/news/520461/software-mines-science-papers-to-make-new-discoveries/
User Models
11/3/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
15
Brief History
of AI
1956 – Dartmouth Conference
1956 – 1981 Micro-Worlds
1981 – Japanese 5th Generation
1988 – Expert Systems Peak
1990 – AI Winter
1997 – Deep Blue
1997 – 2011 Real-World
2011 – Jeopardy! & SIRI
2013 – Cognitive Systems Institute
2014 – Watson Business Unit &
True North Brain Chip
2015 – “Cognition as a Service”
on IBM Bluemix
11/3/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
16
11/3/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
17
11/3/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
18
IBM TrueNorth Chip
11/3/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
19
11/3/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
20
Learning to program:
My first program
11/3/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
21
Early Computer Science Class:
Watson Center at Columbia 1945
Jim Spohrer’s
First Program 1972
11/3/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
22
11/3/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
23
Watson Platform on BlueMix
11/3/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
24
New Era of Computing:
Cognitive Technologies & Componentry
25
 Natural Language
– Reasoning, Logic & Planning
– Symbolic Processing
– Natural Language Processing
– Ranking of Hypotheses
– Knowledge Representations
– Domain-Specific Ontologies
– Information Storage/Retrieval
– Machine Learning, Reasoning
– Von Neumann Componentry
– OpenPOWER Systems
 Pattern Recognition
– Recognition, Sensing & Acting
– Pattern Processing
– Image & Speech Processing
– Ranking of Hypotheses
– Pattern Representations
– Domain-Specific Neural Nets
– Information Storage/Retrieval
– Machine Learning, Perception
– Neuromorphic Componentry
– TrueNorth & Corelets Systems
AI for IA:
Intelligence
Augmentation
(Engelbart’s Visiion)
Cognitive Assistants
(“Cogs”) that boost
creativity and
productivity of people in
smart service systems.
Cognition as a Service
11/3/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
25
IBM Cloud Bluemix
Learning Programming as
Cognitive Team Sport
11/3/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
26
11/3/2015
© IBM 2013 IBM University Programs
worldwide accelerating regional
development (IBM UPward)
27
T-Shaped Makers
Breadth & Depth
sector
region/culture
discipline
Data: From Resource to Service
11/3/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
28
Cloud
Social
Internet of Things
Makers
Cognitive
Security
Analytics
Cyber-Physical Systems
Smarter Planet
Smart Service Systems
Industry 4.0
Mobile
Collaborative Economy
Product-Service Systems
API Economy
Platforms
Barriers: Systems/Interdisciplinary
“The best way to predict the future is to inspire the
next generation of students to build it better”
11/3/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
29
Digital Natives Transportation Water Manufacturing
Energy Construction ICT Retail
Finance Healthcare Education Government
Sciences provide…
• Frameworks for people to ask and answer
questions systematically
• Explanations with instructions on “how to re-do”
11/3/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
30
Kline: Conceptual Foundation of Multidisciplinary Thinking -
“To our children and children’s children,
to whom we elders owe an explanation of the world
that is understandable, realistic, forward-looking, and whole.”
Proenneke:
Alone in the Wilderness -
To do a thorough testing,
should each generation
be required to rapidly rebuild
from scratch?
A re-makers movement?
11/3/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
31
Physics Chemistry Biology
Neuroscience Psychology Artificial
Intelligence
Engineering Management Public
Policy
Education Design Humanities
Natural Systems
Cognitive Systems
Service Systems
11/3/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
32
Explain external
phenomena
11/3/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
33
Explain internal
phenomena
11/3/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
34
Explain
value co-creation
phenomena
11/3/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
35
11/3/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
36
Smart Service System:
All entities’ in network
use cognitive mediators
to enhance
value co-creation interactions
Cognitive Mediators:
Cognitive systems
with deep knowledge of both
customer (user) and provider (expert)
as co-creators of win-win value
Entity augmentation boosts both creativity and productivity of interactions
In Summary
11/3/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
37
“A service science
perspective considers
the evolving ecology of
service system entities,
their value co-creation and
capability co-elevation
interactions, and their
capabilities, constraints,
rights, and responsibilities.”
Cognitive Systems
Entities
Service
Systems
Entities With
Cognitive
Mediators
Add Rights &
Responsibilities
CSIG: Cognitive Systems Institute Group
 LinkedIn discussion
 Cognitive-Systems-Institute-6729452
 Web site for resource
sharing
 cognitive-science.info
 Bluemix
 ibm.biz/HackBluemix
 ibm.biz/LearnBluemix
 $0.07 per GB-Hour (*)
11/3/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
38
* = check online for current pricing info
Assisting individuals and organizations
to close their service innovation skills gap
and co-create smarter service systems
empowering employees, customers, citizens
with cognitive mediators
in the collaborative service economy
11/3/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
40
11/3/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
41
IBM operates in 170 countries
around the globe
Acquisitions contribute significantly
to IBM’s growth ; ~120 acquisitions in
last decade
Number 1 in patent
generation for more
than two decades
More than 40% of IBMs
workforce does
business away from an
office
5 Nobel Laureates10 time winner of the
President’s National
Medal of Technology &
Innovation – latest for
LASIK laser refractive
surgical techniques
The Smartest Machine On Earth
100 Years of Business &
Innovation in 2011
New Era in IBM’s Leadership
IBM Growth Initiatives
IBM has
~400,000
employees
worldwide
Dedication: Doug Engelbart
Father of the mouse and
augmentation theory
11/3/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
42
11/3/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
43
Brief History of Knowledge and Making: Personbyte and Peoplebyte
What can one person know and make?
11/3/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
44
The Maker Movement &
Open Source Ecology
11/3/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
45
So what does this have to do with
programming and computation?
11/3/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
46
Both Turing and von Neumann dreamed of universal machines and constructors
11/3/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
47
11/3/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
48
11/3/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
49
Information & Computer Science
• “The single strongest impulse for introducing
computers on campuses in the mid-1950s did
not come from the schools themselves or
from any federal agency, but instead from
IBM.”
And Beyond… Utility Fog
• Ultimate vision of
material and energy
flows inseparable with
information flows
• Universal Building
Block
– Utility Fog:
Manufactured Things
– Cells:
Living Things

Spohrer ubi learn 20151103 v2

  • 1.
    The Future ofLearning and Doing: Cognitive Assistants in Smart Service Systems Jim Spohrer, IBM Director, Global University Programs (GUP) and Cognitive Systems Institute Group (CSIG) UC Santa Cruz, CA USA, Tuesday November 3th, 2015 http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/spohrer-ubi-learn-20151103-v2 11/3/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM UPward - University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 1
  • 2.
    Today’s Talk • Whatare cognitive assistants? • What are smart service systems? • What are better building blocks? 11/3/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 2
  • 3.
    History 11/3/2015 © IBM 2015,IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 3
  • 4.
    Learning Platform Evolution(1995) 11/3/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 4
  • 5.
    What are CognitiveAssistants? 11/3/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 5 360,000 100,000 120,000 60,000 150,000
  • 6.
    Four L’s ofCognitive Assistants • Language • Learning • Levels (of confidence in recommendations) • Limbs 11/3/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 6
  • 7.
    What are SmartService Systems? 11/3/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 7
  • 8.
    What are betterbuilding blocks? 11/3/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 8 2035 2055
  • 9.
    11/3/2015 © IBM 2015,IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 9 1955 1975 1995 2015 2035 2055 2035 one human brain/2055 all human brains
  • 10.
    11/3/2015 © IBM 2015,IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 10
  • 11.
    Cognitive Assistants forall occupations are beginning to appear 11/3/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 11
  • 12.
    11/3/2015 © IBM 2015,IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 12 Cognitive Assistants for all occupations
  • 13.
    Occupations = ManyTasks 11/3/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 13
  • 14.
    Watson Discovery Advisor 11/3/2015 ©IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 14 Simonite, T. 2014. Software Mines Science Papers to Make New Discoveries. MIT. November 25, 2014. URL: http://m.technologyreview.com/news/520461/software-mines-science-papers-to-make-new-discoveries/
  • 15.
    User Models 11/3/2015 © IBM2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 15
  • 16.
    Brief History of AI 1956– Dartmouth Conference 1956 – 1981 Micro-Worlds 1981 – Japanese 5th Generation 1988 – Expert Systems Peak 1990 – AI Winter 1997 – Deep Blue 1997 – 2011 Real-World 2011 – Jeopardy! & SIRI 2013 – Cognitive Systems Institute 2014 – Watson Business Unit & True North Brain Chip 2015 – “Cognition as a Service” on IBM Bluemix 11/3/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 16
  • 17.
    11/3/2015 © IBM 2015,IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 17
  • 18.
    11/3/2015 © IBM 2015,IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 18
  • 19.
    IBM TrueNorth Chip 11/3/2015 ©IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 19
  • 20.
    11/3/2015 © IBM 2015,IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 20
  • 21.
    Learning to program: Myfirst program 11/3/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 21 Early Computer Science Class: Watson Center at Columbia 1945 Jim Spohrer’s First Program 1972
  • 22.
    11/3/2015 © IBM 2015,IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 22
  • 23.
    11/3/2015 © IBM 2015,IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 23
  • 24.
    Watson Platform onBlueMix 11/3/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 24
  • 25.
    New Era ofComputing: Cognitive Technologies & Componentry 25  Natural Language – Reasoning, Logic & Planning – Symbolic Processing – Natural Language Processing – Ranking of Hypotheses – Knowledge Representations – Domain-Specific Ontologies – Information Storage/Retrieval – Machine Learning, Reasoning – Von Neumann Componentry – OpenPOWER Systems  Pattern Recognition – Recognition, Sensing & Acting – Pattern Processing – Image & Speech Processing – Ranking of Hypotheses – Pattern Representations – Domain-Specific Neural Nets – Information Storage/Retrieval – Machine Learning, Perception – Neuromorphic Componentry – TrueNorth & Corelets Systems AI for IA: Intelligence Augmentation (Engelbart’s Visiion) Cognitive Assistants (“Cogs”) that boost creativity and productivity of people in smart service systems. Cognition as a Service 11/3/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 25 IBM Cloud Bluemix
  • 26.
    Learning Programming as CognitiveTeam Sport 11/3/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 26
  • 27.
    11/3/2015 © IBM 2013IBM University Programs worldwide accelerating regional development (IBM UPward) 27 T-Shaped Makers Breadth & Depth sector region/culture discipline
  • 28.
    Data: From Resourceto Service 11/3/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 28 Cloud Social Internet of Things Makers Cognitive Security Analytics Cyber-Physical Systems Smarter Planet Smart Service Systems Industry 4.0 Mobile Collaborative Economy Product-Service Systems API Economy Platforms Barriers: Systems/Interdisciplinary
  • 29.
    “The best wayto predict the future is to inspire the next generation of students to build it better” 11/3/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 29 Digital Natives Transportation Water Manufacturing Energy Construction ICT Retail Finance Healthcare Education Government
  • 30.
    Sciences provide… • Frameworksfor people to ask and answer questions systematically • Explanations with instructions on “how to re-do” 11/3/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 30 Kline: Conceptual Foundation of Multidisciplinary Thinking - “To our children and children’s children, to whom we elders owe an explanation of the world that is understandable, realistic, forward-looking, and whole.” Proenneke: Alone in the Wilderness - To do a thorough testing, should each generation be required to rapidly rebuild from scratch? A re-makers movement?
  • 31.
    11/3/2015 © IBM 2015,IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 31 Physics Chemistry Biology Neuroscience Psychology Artificial Intelligence Engineering Management Public Policy Education Design Humanities Natural Systems Cognitive Systems Service Systems
  • 32.
    11/3/2015 © IBM 2015,IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 32 Explain external phenomena
  • 33.
    11/3/2015 © IBM 2015,IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 33 Explain internal phenomena
  • 34.
    11/3/2015 © IBM 2015,IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 34 Explain value co-creation phenomena
  • 35.
    11/3/2015 © IBM 2015,IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 35
  • 36.
    11/3/2015 © IBM 2015,IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 36 Smart Service System: All entities’ in network use cognitive mediators to enhance value co-creation interactions Cognitive Mediators: Cognitive systems with deep knowledge of both customer (user) and provider (expert) as co-creators of win-win value Entity augmentation boosts both creativity and productivity of interactions
  • 37.
    In Summary 11/3/2015 © IBM2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 37 “A service science perspective considers the evolving ecology of service system entities, their value co-creation and capability co-elevation interactions, and their capabilities, constraints, rights, and responsibilities.” Cognitive Systems Entities Service Systems Entities With Cognitive Mediators Add Rights & Responsibilities
  • 38.
    CSIG: Cognitive SystemsInstitute Group  LinkedIn discussion  Cognitive-Systems-Institute-6729452  Web site for resource sharing  cognitive-science.info  Bluemix  ibm.biz/HackBluemix  ibm.biz/LearnBluemix  $0.07 per GB-Hour (*) 11/3/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 38 * = check online for current pricing info
  • 39.
    Assisting individuals andorganizations to close their service innovation skills gap and co-create smarter service systems empowering employees, customers, citizens with cognitive mediators in the collaborative service economy
  • 40.
    11/3/2015 © IBM 2015,IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 40
  • 41.
    11/3/2015 © IBM 2015,IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 41 IBM operates in 170 countries around the globe Acquisitions contribute significantly to IBM’s growth ; ~120 acquisitions in last decade Number 1 in patent generation for more than two decades More than 40% of IBMs workforce does business away from an office 5 Nobel Laureates10 time winner of the President’s National Medal of Technology & Innovation – latest for LASIK laser refractive surgical techniques The Smartest Machine On Earth 100 Years of Business & Innovation in 2011 New Era in IBM’s Leadership IBM Growth Initiatives IBM has ~400,000 employees worldwide
  • 42.
    Dedication: Doug Engelbart Fatherof the mouse and augmentation theory 11/3/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 42
  • 43.
    11/3/2015 © IBM 2015,IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 43 Brief History of Knowledge and Making: Personbyte and Peoplebyte
  • 44.
    What can oneperson know and make? 11/3/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 44
  • 45.
    The Maker Movement& Open Source Ecology 11/3/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 45
  • 46.
    So what doesthis have to do with programming and computation? 11/3/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 46 Both Turing and von Neumann dreamed of universal machines and constructors
  • 47.
    11/3/2015 © IBM 2015,IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 47
  • 48.
    11/3/2015 © IBM 2015,IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 48
  • 49.
    11/3/2015 © IBM 2015,IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 49
  • 50.
    Information & ComputerScience • “The single strongest impulse for introducing computers on campuses in the mid-1950s did not come from the schools themselves or from any federal agency, but instead from IBM.”
  • 51.
    And Beyond… UtilityFog • Ultimate vision of material and energy flows inseparable with information flows • Universal Building Block – Utility Fog: Manufactured Things – Cells: Living Things

Editor's Notes

  • #2 UBI-Learn: http://ubi-learn.com/the-conference/program-and-events/schedule-of-sessions The Eighth International Conference on e-Learning and Innovative Pedagogies "The Future of Education: Advanced Computing, Ubiquitous Learning, and the Knowledge Economy" University of California, Santa Cruz Santa Cruz, California, USA 2-3 November 2015 Submit a Proposal Conference Focus The e-Learning Conference investigates the uses of technologies in learning, including devices with sophisticated computing and networking capacities which are now pervasively part of our everyday lives. The Conference explores the possibilities of new forms of technology-mediated learning devices not only in the classroom, but in a wider range of places and times than was conventionally the case for education. These are the key themes and scope and concerns of the conference and its companion journal. We are inviting proposals for paper presentations, workshops/interactive sessions, posters/exhibits, or colloquia (See Proposal Types) addressing e-learning and innovative pedagogies through one of the following themes: Pedagogies Institutions Technologies Social Transformations The Future of Education: Advanced Computing, Ubiquitous Learning, and the Knowledge Economy The Future of Learning & Doing: Cognitive Assistant for All Occupations in Smart Service Systems Abstract: For the first time in history ten Forbes Global 2000 publically traded companies have commercial offerings of cognitive assistants for their customers.   To more naturally augment the users' intelligence, unlike cognitive tools of the past, the current generation of cognitive assistants have natural language, often spoken natural language, interfaces and come equipped with varying degrees of machine learning to improve their performance over time, as well as ways of calculating levels of confidence in alternative responses.  Nevertheless, these commercially available assistants have many capability limitations, and fall short of being trusted collaborators with adequate levels of social skills.   The implications for the future of learning and doing are explored.  In conclusion, the best way to predict the future is to inspire the next generation of students to built it better.  The building blocks are getting better, and this has many implications for students, faculty, professionals, and policy makers. Reference: Spohrer, J (2015) The Future of Learning and Doing: Cognitive Assistants in Smart Service Systems. UC Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA USA. Tuesday November 3, 2015. URL http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/spohrer-ubi-learn-20151103-v2
  • #3 Today’s talk will explore two questions What should we know how to make? What might programming education become? If we look at history we see a time when people could make only simple things, and often a single person could make them. Would it ever be possible for a single person to know and make complex things? And what role might programming education play? Will the cognitive era – the coming era of smart machines – make people more capable or less capable to know and make complex things?
  • #4 EOE = Educational Object Economy (circa 1990’s Apple) CSU Merlot http://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007%2F978-94-011-0445-6_3
  • #5 URL: http://service-science.info/archives/2060
  • #6 Many intelligent assistants or cognitive assistants are beginning to appear. (the numbers indicate approximate number of employees at each companuy). More and more companies are working on cognitive assistants – and each month a new company shows up working on their version of an intelligent personal assistant. Make no mistake, like “magnetism” – the company the can first provide all its employees with intelligent personal assistants/cognitvie assistants will have done something quite historic! Prediction 1 – more than half of the Forbes Global 2000, and equally many new startups, will have cognitive assistant projects for their customers within ten years Prediction 2 – by 2035 we will be symbiotic with our cognitive assistants Prediction 3 – by 2055 (in part due to the coaching of our cognitive coaches) an average adult will have the ability to rapidly rebuild from scratch societal infrastructure Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligent_personal_assistant
  • #9 If Moore’s Law continues, by 2035 and by 2055, we are projected to have unimaginably large amounts of cheap computing…. 2035 one human brain level, and by 2055 all human brains level(10 billion people). Based on Kurweil’s graph of how much compute power $1000 will buy, it seems that by 2030, for $1000 you should be able to buy the compute power of one person’s brain, and that by 2060 for $1000 you should be able to buy the computer power of 10***10, or 10B people, the compute power of the world’s population for $1000. Source: http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-1.html Was Moore’s Law inevitable? http://kk.org/thetechnium/was-moores-law/
  • #10 By 2035 the phone may have the power of one human brain – by 2055 the phone may have the power of all human brains. Before trying to answer the question about which types of sciences are more important – the ones that try to explain the external world or the ones that try to explain the internal world – consider this, slide that shows the different telephones that I have used in my life. I grew up in rural Maine, where we had a party line telephone because we were somewhat remote on our farm in Newburgh, Maine. However, over the years phones got much better…. So in 2035 or 2055, who are you going to call when you need help?
  • #11 What could possibly go wrong? Social technology makes us less social. Image Source: https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/1d/eb/5c/1deb5c1cf49a5dbb7689131f3cc8b9a9.jpg
  • #13 O*NET Online is the occupation network online, started by the US Dept of Labor in the 1990’s – it now represents one of the most comprehensive lists of occupations along with a great deal of information about each occupation, including skills, tasks, certifications, demand for these jobs, etc. O*NET lists about 1000 occupations from Accountants to Zoologists – and many job families in between. O*NET updates the descriptions of the occupations as well as adding new occupations over time. Source: http://www.onetonline.org/find/family?f=0
  • #19 Modha’s Brain - Goal 1KW and 2 Litres…. Dharmendra Modha and his design for a brain chip playing pong: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gQ3HEVelBFY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tqeINGOzIZo https://twitter.com/dharmendramodha/status/545693986149511168
  • #20 Programming the IBM TrueNorth chip is like building a neural network, not much like traditional programming.
  • #22 In the 1940’s IBM started teaching computer science at Columbia. My first program – punch cards 1972.
  • #23 Bluemix free access – http://www.ibm.com/university – see academic intiatives
  • #24 Interested faculty, students, really anyone with a credit card can get 750 GB-Hours a month free http://www.ibm.com/smarterplanet/us/en/ibmwatson/developercloud/services-catalog.html
  • #27 Image Sources: http://www.danabrahams.com/blog/2015/01/28/cognitive-acceleration-in-practice/ https://mratkinsalevel.wordpress.com/ http://think2perform.co.uk/ http://www.axonsports.com/ http://thepurposeisprofit.com/startup-success-is-a-team-sport/
  • #28 From I to T to Pi-shapes … and beyond! IBM needs graduates who can work on multidisciplinary, multisector, multicultural teams… T-shapes have depth and breadth … Disciplines from computer science to marketing to social sciences to arts & humanities Sectors from transportation to energy to healthcare to government Cultures from US to Europe to China to India to Latin America to Africa to Middle East and more!!
  • #29 2x GDP, and more justice
  • #30 By 2036, there will be an accumulation of knowledge as well as a distribution of knowledge in service systems globally. We need to ensure as there is knowledge accumulation that service systems at all scale become more resilient. Leading to the capability of rapid rebuilding of service systems across scales, by T-shaped people who understand how to rapidly rebuild – knowledge has been chunked, modularized, and put into networks that support rapid rebuilding.
  • #31 These concerns about what could possibly go wrong with cognitive mediators are real, so how can science help provide answers to help us make good choices in creating our future? Image sources: http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/51oBLyAHXzL._SX327_BO1,204,203,200_.jpg Alone in the Wilderness (1968) – Dick Proenneke - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iYJKd0rkKss
  • #32 However, at the end of the day, even with more creative and productive people…. With the 2035 symbiosis of people and their cognitive assistants, we are left trying to explain external phenomena and internal phenomena, as well as to create possible future worlds… The natural sciences of course include physics, chemistry, and biology. The cogntive science are not as well understood, but people are increasing aware of neuroscience (brain science), psychology, and artificial intelligence – which inform cognitive science. Finally, the least understood and newest is service science. Service science is the study of the evolving ecology of service sytem entities with capabilities, contraints, rights, and responsibilities – but also importantly with imagination! The humanities and fiction are a great source of possible future worlds. We just have to design and edcuate the next generation to engineer, manage, and set in place public policy that allows us to realize possible future worlds that we would like to live in. Source: Regis Lemmes http://www.slideshare.net/SalesCubes/sales-cocreation-35336385
  • #33 Which is more important to explain external phenomena or internal phenomena? Physics is the science that helps us understand the the external world – across many scales. Picture of star formation https://www.bnl.gov/science/physics.php
  • #34 Which is more important to explain external phenomena or internal phenomena? Cognitive science, including brain science, neuroscience, psychology and other areas, is the study of the internal world. Artificial intelligence is the science and engineering discipline trying to build smart machines – or what we at IBM call cognitive systems. Cognitive assistants are cognitive systems with capabilities of natural language, learning, and levels (of confidence) in recommendations to people trying to use them to make decisions, and some cognitive assistants have more than 3 L’s, they also have a 4th L – limbs – those cognitive assistants are robots. Picture of physics and the brain... http://medimoon.com/2014/04/drayson-foundation-donation-to-tackle-the-girls-in-physics-conundrum/
  • #36 Obvious things to do….. With the mission of cognitive assistants for all occupations in smart service systems. http://www.cognitive-science.info https://www.linkedin.com/groups/Cognitive-Systems-Institute-6729452
  • #37  Images Sources: http://www.preventionjustice.org/potent-partnerships-networks-of-people-living-with-hiv/
  • #43 One of my heroes and mentors – Doug Engelbart (1925-2013) Doug and I had several conversations about the relationship between augmentation theory and service science. I wish we could have had many more. Before connecting augmentation theory to service science, I have to travel through some technical areas that are closer to my first two degrees physics at MIT and artificial intelligence at Yale university – but I promise you, I will connect this to service science and smarter service system research agenda….
  • #44 Cesar Hidalgo of MIT Media Lab talks about Personbyte and Peoplebyte knowledge – what a single person can know and make (personbyte), and what a population of people can know and make (peoplebyte). The growth of knowledge and the ability to make more and more complex things – (1) what a person can make - fire, (2) what a city of people can make – buildings, (3) what a factory can make – complex products, (4) what global networks can make – huge things. MIT Media Lab Youtube: Networks Understanding Networks, Pt. 1: Welcome by Nicholas Negroponte, Joi Ito, and César Hidalgo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mwIjcv7OWMo
  • #45 No single person can make a pencil – it is too complex. A design student did try to make a toaster – and if you have not seen the TED Talk, I encourage you to watch it – it is very funny. Toaster Project: http://www.ted.com/talks/thomas_thwaites_how_i_built_a_toaster_from_scratch?language=en https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I,_Pencil "I, Pencil" is written in the first person from the point of view of a pencil. The pencil details the complexity of its own creation, listing its components (cedar, lacquer, graphite, ferrule, factice, pumice, wax, glue) and the numerous people involved, down to the sweeper in the factory and the lighthouse keeper guiding the shipment into port.
  • #46 Open Source Ecology is one branch of the Makers Movement with the goal of making it easier for individual to make the industrial machines most needed in civilization… “Open Source Blueprints for Civilization. Build Yourself. We’re developing open source industrial machines that can be made for a fraction of commercial costs, and sharing our designs online for free. The goal of Open Source Ecology is to create an open source economy – an efficient economy which increases innovation by open collaboration. “ Source: http://opensourceecology.org/
  • #47 You can tell famous computer scientists and mathematicians, because they end up on stamps… Von Neumann was one of the first to make the connection to computation and self-replicating automata…. Both Turing and von Neumann dreamed of universal machines, universal constructors, kinematic machines, self-replicating machines, and more…. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-replicating_machine
  • #52 Utility Fog: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Utility_fog Utility Fog: The Stuff That Dreams Are Made Of: http://www.kurzweilai.net/utility-fog-the-stuff-that-dreams-are-made-of