Steve Bashford: Post-recession occupations and sectors in the South West
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The document analyzes the economic structure and future scenarios for the South West economy post-recession, focusing on occupations and sectors. It identifies key drivers of economic change, including globalization, technology, and demographic shifts, while outlining potential growth scenarios based on various influencing factors. The analysis suggests a need for policy design that reconciles economic, social, and environmental aspects to adapt to these changing conditions.
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Steve Bashford: Post-recession occupations and sectors in the South West
- 1. Post-recession occupations and sectors in the South West Stephen Bashford SW Economy Module
- 2. Things to cover Methodology Current structure of SW economy Drivers of economic change Post-recession scenarios Baseline ‘ Global Markets’ ‘ Local Communities’ Summary
- 3. Methodology Economic models developed by the SW Economy module Uses Spring 2009 projections as baseline Median forecast in HM Treasury survey of independent forecasts Historical relationships for Output (GVA) and Employment (FTE) Scenarios A prediction Χ A forecast Χ Feasible future outcomes for contemplation and debate √
- 4. Current structure of SW economy Largest (GVA): ‘Real estate’ (10%), ‘Health & social work’ (8%), ‘Construction’ (7%), ‘Public admin. & defence’ (7%) and ‘Education’ (6%) Largest (FTE): ‘Health & social work’ (12%), ‘Construction’ (9%), ‘Retail distribution’ (9%), ‘Public admin. & defence’ (7%) and ‘Education’ (6%) 31.8% 26.5% Public services 16.9% 26.0% Financial & business services 27.2% 22.8% Distribution & transport 24.1% 24.6% Production Employment (FTE) Output (GVA) 2008
- 5. Specialisation – Industry (2007) Compared to GB economy… GVA Most specialised: ‘shipbuilding & repair’, ‘electronic components’, ‘agriculture, forestry & fishing’, ‘mining & quarrying’ and ‘tobacco manufacturing’ (‘aerospace’ highest when compared to EU25) Least specialised: ‘extraction of energy products’, ‘water transport’, ‘oil refining & nuclear fuel’, ‘basic metals’ and ‘chemicals’ (excl pharmaceuticals) FTEs broadly the same - specialisation in ‘aerospace’ Since 1998, increased employment specialisation in ‘insulated wire’, ‘pharmaceuticals’, ‘shipbuilding’ and ‘research & development’
- 6. Concentration of economic activity
- 7. Specialisation – Occupations (2006) ‘ Top 10’ have similar shares to GB SW specialisation: ‘agriculture & conservation’, ‘hospitality & leisure managers’, ‘other service managers’, ‘hairdressers’ and ‘textile traders’ Since 2002, increased specialisation in ‘science professionals’, ‘public service professionals’ and ‘managers & senior officials’
- 8. Drivers of economic change
- 9. Globalisation Increasing Global economic linkages Shift from ‘West’ to ‘East’ (China & India) Mass market manufacturing & services increasingly competitive High value niche products, High skills Fragmentation of production… ‘ The enduring competitive advantages in a global economy are often heavily localised, arising from concentrations of highly specialised skills and knowledge, institutions, rivalry, related businesses and sophisticated consumers’ (Porter 1998)
- 10. Technology More output from given resources Better quality products and services Geographical patterns of innovation and technology transfer ‘ Enabling technologies’ i.e. ICTs, nano-technologies Mass production -> Customisation?
- 11. Skills Knowledge-based economy Skills for producing and delivering high-value-added products and services Need for ‘soft-skills’ as well as technical Increasing mobility - therefore, need to attract and retain skilled workers
- 12. Consumers Patterns of consumer expenditure and labour supply – longer term Increasing consumption of services Attitudes to health, ethics and the natural environment ‘ Green’ consumption Localised production in response to rising energy costs?
- 13. Demographic Change Continued ageing of population Structure of labour force – skills and experience Structure of demand for goods and services ↑ Health-related products and services ↓ Education services
- 14. Environmental Resources Availability of natural resources as inputs to production Impacts of climate change Environmental policies and regulation Shift to less energy-intensive production methods Transport costs + ICT improvements
- 15. Policy Future patterns of public expenditure will determine employment in public services, education and health Education/training policies will partly determine skills supply Research policies will effect rate of innovation Financial sector regulation
- 16. Post-recession scenarios for the SW Higher skills more widely dispersed Specialisation in high skill occupations Occupations Broader activity base Growth in environmental products Specialisation in high value added products and services Sectors Green/Ethical products Local suppliers preference Niche products Global brands preference Consumers Stronger concern/protection Increase in resource costs (Demand>Supply) Weaker concern/protection Resource supply = demand Environment Weaker Expansion Stronger Expansion Trade Lower Higher Economic Growth Scenario 2: ‘ Local Communities’ Scenario 1: ‘ Global Markets’
- 17. The Baseline case Reflects impact of recession in SW… Real GVA growth around 2.1% per year between 2011-2020 (was 3.4% for 1997-2005) No net growth in total employment (FTEs) between 2009-2020
- 18. SW Employment growth (FTEs) 2007-2020: Baseline
- 19. SW Employment growth by occupation (FTEs) 2007-2020: Baseline Increased shares in knowledge-based occupations i.e. ‘science & research professionals’, ‘librarians’, legal & conservation ‘associated professionals’
- 20. SW Employment in 2020 relative to baseline (Sector): Scenarios
- 21. SW Employment in 2020 relative to baseline (Occupations): Scenarios
- 22. Summary Pre-recession, growth driven by public sector, financial services...etc. Sustainable? Revealed specialisation Different scenarios have implications for future economic structures and areas of specialisation However, scenarios not incompatible i.e. globalisation and localisation Economic, social & environmental - reconciliation is key How should policy be designed?