StockMarketPrediction

Forecasting Stock Price Index in Stock Exchange by Artificial
Neural network
By: Swapnil Agrawal, Swapnil Nilangekar, Sunandan Barman, Jay Jadhav
Abstract— Artificial Neural Network has been shown to be an
efficient tool for non-parametric modeling of data in a variety of
different contexts where the output id non-linear functions of
the inputs. These include business forecasting, credit scoring, bond
rating, business failure prediction, medicine, pattern recognition, and
image processing. A large number of studies have been reported
in the literature with reference to use of ANN in modeling stock
prices in the western countries. However, not much work along these
lines has been reported in the Indian context. This paper presents a
better predictio n model by the use of neural network technique for
the stock index. We will have a look at the Single layer networks and
Multilayer networks and finally, the method used to train a
Multilayer Networks: Backpropogation.
Keywords-Artificial Nueral Network;BackPropogation
1. INTRODUCTION
Recently forecasting stock market return is gaining more
attention, maybe because of the fact that if the direction of
the market is successfully predicted the investors may be
better guided. The profitability of investing and trading in
the stock market to a large extent depends on the
predictability. If any system be developed which can
consistently predict the trends of the dynamic stock market,
would make the owner of the system wealthy. More over the
predicted trends of the market will help the regulators of the
market in making corrective measures.
Many researchers and practitioners have proposed many
models using various fundamental, technical and analytical
techniques to give a more or less exact prediction.
Fundamental analysis involves the in-depth analysis of the
changes of the stock prices in terms of exogenous
macroeconomic variables. It assumes that the share price of
a stock depends on its intrinsic value and the expected
return of the investors. But this expected return is subjected
to change as new information pertaining to the stock is
available in the market which in turn changes the share
price. Moreover, the analysis of the economic factors is
quite subjective as the interpretation totally lays on the
intellectuality of the analyst. Alternatively, technical
analysis centers on using price, volume, and open interest
statistical charts to predict future stock movements. The
premise behind technical analysis is that all of the internal
and external factors that affect a market at any given point
of time are already factored into that market’s price.
Apart from these commonly used methods of prediction,
some traditional time series forecasting tools are also used
for the same. In time series forecasting, the past data of the
prediction variable is analyzed and modeled to capture the
patterns of the historic changes in the variable. These
models are then used to forecast the future prices.
There are mainly two approaches of time series modeling
and forecasting: linear approach and the nonlinear approach.
Mostly used linear methods are moving average,
exponential smoothing, time series regression etc. One of
the most common and popular linear method is the Auto
regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model (Box
and Jenkins (1976)). It presumes linear model but is quite
flexible as it can represent different types of time series, i.e.
Auto regressive (AR), moving average (MA) and combined
AR and MA (ARMA) series.
However, there is not much evidence that the stock market
returns are perfectly linear for the very reason that the
residual variance between the predicted return and the actual
is quite high. The existence of the non-linearity of the
financial market is propounded by many researchers and
financial analyst.
During last few years there has been much advancement in
the application of neural network in stock market indices
forecasting with a hope that market patterns can be
extracted. The novelty of the ANN lies in their ability to
discover nonlinear relationship in the input data set without
a priori assumption of the knowledge of relation between
the input and the output. They independently learn the

=
relationship inherent in the variables. From statistical point
of view neural networks are analogous to nonparametric,
nonlinear, regression model. So, neural network suits better
than other models in predicting the stock market returns.
I. ARTIFICIAL NUERAL NETWORKS-THEORY
A neural network is a massively parallel distributed
processor made up of simple processing unit which has a
natural propensity for storing experiential knowledge and
making it available for use. Neural networks have
remarkable ability to derive meaning from complicated or
imprecise data. They are used to extract patterns and detect
trends that are too complex to be noticed by either humans
or other computer techniques. Neural networks have
remarkable ability to derive meaning from complicated or
imprecise data. They are used to extract patterns and detect
trends that are too complex to be noticed by either humans
or other computer techniques
Artificial Neural Networks were inspired by biological
findings relating to the behavior of the brain as a network of
units called neurons. The human brain is estimated to have
around 10 billion neurons each connected on average to
10,000 other neurons. Each neuron receives signals through
synapses that control the effects of the signal on the neuron.
These synaptic connections are believed to play a key role
in the behavior of the brain.
3. An activation function g (also called a squashing
function) that maps v to g(v) the output value of the
neuron. This function is a monotone function.
While there are numerous different (artificial) neural
network architectures that have been studied by researchers,
the most successful applications in data mining of neural
networks have been multilayer feedforward networks. These
are networks in which there is an input layer consisting of
nodes that simply accept the input values and successive
layers of nodes that are neurons as depicted in Figure 1. The
outputs of neurons in a layer are inputs to neurons in the
next layer. The last layer is called the output layer. Layers
between the input and output layers are known as hidden
layers. Figure 2 is a diagram for this architecture.
The fundamental building block in an ANN is the
mathematical model of a neuron as shown in Figure
.
Fig.2
The three basic components of the (artificial) neuron are:
1. The synapses or connecting links that provide
weights, wj , to the input values, xj for j = 1, ...m;
2. An adder that sums the weighted input values to
compute the input to the activation function
In a supervised setting where a neural net is used to predict
a numerical quantity there is one neuron in the output layer
and its output is the prediction. When the network is used
for classification, the output layer typically has as many
nodes as the number of classes and the output layer node
with the largest output value gives the network’s estimate of
�
� =1 � � � � , where w0 is called the bias (not to
be
the class for a given input. In the special case of two classes
confused with statistical bias in prediction or
estimation) is a numerical value associated with the
neuron. It is convenient to think of the bias as the
weight for an input x0 whose value is always equal
it is common to have just one node in the output layer, the
classification between the two classes being made by
applying a cut-off to the output value at the node.
to one, so that v = �
�
=0
� � � �
;
1.1 Single layer networks
Let us begin by examining neural networks with just one
layer of neurons (output layer only, no hidden layers). The
simplest network consists of just one neuron with the
function g chosen to be the identity function, g(v) = v for all
v. In this case notice that the output of the network is
�
� =0 � � � � , a linear function of the input vector x with
Fig.1
components xj . If we are modeling the dependent variable y
using multiple linear regression, we can interpret the neural
network as a structure that predicts a value _y for a given
input vector x with the weights being the coefficients. If we
choose these weights to minimize the mean square error

using observations in a training set, these weights would
simply be the least squares estimates of the coefficients. The
weights in neural nets are also often designed to minimize
mean square error in a training data set. There is, however, a
different orientation in the case of neural nets: the weights
are‖learned‖. The network is presented with cases from the
training data one at a time and the weights are revised after
each case in an attempt to minimize the mean square error.
This process of incremental adjustment of weights is based
on the error made on training cases and is known as
’training’ the neural net. The almost universally used
dynamic updating algorithm for the neural net version of
linear regression is known as the Widrow-Hoff rule or the
least-mean-square (LMS) algorithm. It is simply stated. Let
x(i) denote the input vector x for the ith
case used to train the
network, and the weights before this case is presented to the
net by the vector w(i). The updating rule is w(i+1) =
w(i)+η(y(i)−_y(i))x(i) with w(0) = 0. It can be shown that if
the network is trained in this manner by repeatedly
presenting test data observations one-at-a-time then for
suitably small (absolute) values of η the network will learn
(converge to) the optimal values of w. Note that the training
data may have to be presented several times for w(i) to be
close to the optimal w. The advantage of dynamic updating
is that the network tracks moderate time trends in the
underlying linear model quite effectively. If we consider
using the single layer neural net for classification into c
classes, we would use c nodes in the output layer. If we
think of classical discriminant analysis in neural network
terms, the coefficients in Fisher’s classification functions
give us weights for the network that are optimal if the input
vectors come from Multivariate Normal distributions with a
common covariance matrix. For classification into two
classes, the linear optimization approach that we examined
in class, can be viewed as choosing optimal weights in a
single layer neural network using the appropriate objective
function. Maximum likelihood coefficients for logistic
regression can also be considered as weights in a neural
network to minimize a function of the residuals called the
deviance. In this case the logistic function g(v) =(𝑒�
/1+𝑒�
)
is the activation function for the output node.
1.2 Multilayer Neural networks
Multilayer neural networks are undoubtedly the most
popular networks used in applications. While it is possible
to consider many activation functions, in practice it has been
found that the logistic (also called the sigmoid) function g(v)
=(𝑒�
/1+𝑒�
) as the activation function (or minor variants such
as the tanh function) works best. In fact the revival of
interest in neural nets was sparked by successes in training
neural networks using this function in place of the
historically (biologically inspired) step function (the
‖perceptron‖). Notice that using a linear function does not
achieve anything in multilayer networks that is beyond what
can be done with single layer networks with linear
activation functions. The practical value of the logistic
function arises from the fact that it is almost linear in the
range where g is between 0.1 and 0.9 but has a squashing
effect on very small or very large values of v. In theory it is
sufficient to consider networks with two layers of neurons–
one hidden and one output layer–and this is certainly the
case for most applications. There are, however, a number of
situations where three and sometimes four and five layers
have been more effective. For prediction the output node is
often given a linear activation function to provide forecasts
that are not limited to the zero to one range. An alternative
is to scale the output to the linear part (0.1 to 0.9) of the
logistic function. Unfortunately there is no clear theory to
guide us on choosing the number of nodes in each hidden
layer or indeed the number of layers. The common
practice is to use trial and error, although there are schemes
for combining optimization methods such as genetic
algorithms with network training for these parameters. Since
trial and error is a necessary part of neural net applications it
is important to have an understanding of the standard
method used to train a multilayered network:
backpropagation.
ALGORITHM:
Forward propagation is a supervised learning algorithm
and describes the "flow of information" through a neural net
from its input layer to its output layer.
The algorithm works as follows:
1. Set all weights to random values ranging from -1.0 to
+1.0
2. Set an input pattern (binary values) to the neurons of the
net's input layer
3. Activate each neuron of the following layer: - Multiply
the weight values of the connections leading to this neuron
with the output values of the preceding neurons - Add up
these values - Pass the result to an activation function,
which computes the output value of this neuron.
4. Repeat this until the output layer is reached.
5. Compare the calculated output pattern to the desired
target pattern and compute an error value.
6. Change all weights by adding the error value to the (old)
weight values.
7. Go to step 2
The algorithm ends, if all output patterns match their target
patterns.
Example:
Suppose you have the following 2-layered Perceptron:

Forwardpropagation in a 2-layered Perceptron
Patterns to be learned:
inputtarget
0 1 0
1 1 1
First, the weight values are set to random values (0.35 and
0.81).
The learning rate of the net is set to 0.25.
Next, the values of the first input pattern (0 1) are set to the
neurons of the input layer (the output of the input layer is
the same as its input).
The neurons in the following layer (only one neuron in the
output layer) are activated:
Input 1 of output neuron: 0 * 0.35 = 0
Input 2 of output neuron: 1 * 0.81 = 0.81
Add the inputs: 0 + 0.81 = 0.81 (= output)
Compute an error value by subtracting output from target:
0 - 0.81 = -0.81
Value for changing weight 1: 0.25 * 0 * (-0.81) = 0
(0.25 = learning rate)
Value for changing weight 2: 0.25 * 1 * (-0.81) = -0.2025
Change weight 1: 0.35 + 0 = 0.35 (not changed)
Change weight 2: 0.81 + (-0.2025) = 0.6075
Now that the weights are changed, the second input pattern
(1 1) is set to the input layer's neurons and the activation of
the output neuron is performed again, now with the new
weight values:
Add the inputs: 0.35 + 0.6075 = 0.9575 (= output)
Compute an error value by subtracting output from target:
1 - 0.9575 = 0.0425
Value for changing weight 1: 0.25 * 1 * 0.0425 = 0.010625
Value for changing weight 2: 0.25 * 1 * 0.0425 = 0.010625
Change weight 1: 0.35 + 0.010625 = 0.360625
Change weight 2: 0.6075 + 0.010625 = 0.618125
That was one learning step. Each input pattern had been
propagated through the net and the weight values were
changed.
The error of the net can now be calculated by adding up the
squared values of the output errors of each pattern:
Compute the net error: (-0.81)2
+ (0.0425)2
=
0.65790625
By performing this procedure repeatedly, this error value
gets smaller and smaller.
Back propagation is a supervised learning algorithm and is
mainly used by Multi-Layer-Perceptrons to change the
weights connected to the net's hidden neuron layer(s).
The backpropagation algorithm uses a computed output
error to change the weight values in backward direction.
To get this net error, a forwardpropagation phase must have
been done before. While propagating in forward direction,
the neurons are being activated using the sigmoid activation
function.
The formula of sigmoid activation is:f(x)=
1
1+𝑒−� � 𝑝� �
The algorithm works as follows:
1. Perform the forwardpropagation phase for an input
pattern and calculate the output error
2. Change all weight values of each weight matrix using the
formula weight (old) + learning rate * output error * output
(neurons i) * output (neurons i+1) * (1 - output (neurons
i+1))
3. Go to step 1
4. The algorithm ends, if all output patterns match their
target patterns
Example:
Suppose you have the following 3-layered Multi-Layer-
Perceptron:
Backpropagation in a 3-layered Multi-Layer-Perceptron
Patterns to be learned:
inputtarget
0 1 0
1 1 1
First, the weight values are set to random values: 0.62, 0.42,
0.55, -0.17 for weight matrix 1 and 0.35, 0.81 for weight
matrix 2.
The learning rate of the net is set to 0.25.
Next, the values of the first input pattern (0 1) are set to the
neurons of the input layer (the output of the input layer is
the same as its input).

The neurons in the hidden layer are activated:
Input of hidden neuron 1: 0 * 0.62 + 1 * 0.55 = 0.55
Input of hidden neuron 2: 0 * 0.42 + 1 * (-0.17) = -0.17
Output of hidden neuron 1: 1 / ( 1 + exp(-0.55) ) =
0.634135591
Output of hidden neuron 2: 1 / ( 1 + exp(+0.17) ) =
0.457602059
The neurons in the output layer are activated:
Input of output neuron: 0.634135591 * 0.35 + 0.457602059
* 0.81 = 0.592605124
Output of output neuron: 1 / ( 1 + exp(-0.592605124) ) =
0.643962658
Compute an error value by subtracting output from target: 0
- 0.643962658 = -0.643962658
Now that we got the output error, let's do the
backpropagation.
We start with changing the weights in weight matrix 2:
Value for changing weight 1: 0.25 * (-0.643962658) *
0.634135591*0.643962658*(1-0.643962658)=-.023406638
Value for changing weight 2: 0.25 * (-0.643962658) *
0.457602059*0.643962658*(1-0.643962658)=-.016890593
Change weight 1: 0.35 + (-0.023406638) = 0.326593362
Change weight 2: 0.81 + (-0.016890593) = 0.793109407
Now we will change the weights in weight matrix 1:
Value for changing weight 1:
0.25* (-0.643962658) * 0* 0.634135591 * (1-0.634135591)
= 0
0.25* (-0.643962658) * 0* 0.457602059 * (1-0.457602059)
= 0
0.25* (-0.643962658) * 1* 0.634135591 * (1-0.634135591)
= -0.037351064
0.25*(-0.643962658) * 1* 0.457602059 * (1-0.457602059)
= -0.039958271
Change weight 3: 0.55 + (-0.037351064) = 0.512648936
Change weight 4: -0.17+ (-0.039958271) = -0.209958271
The algorithm is successfully finished, if the net error is
zero (perfect) or approximately zero.
Note that this algorithm is also applicable for Multi-Layer-
Perceptrons with more than one hidden layer.
METHODOGY:
Let's outline the steps that we need to take to use the Neural
Network .
1. First of all, we need data. Here we are taking Stock Index
as the data. The only criteria is - the data must be sequential
(a table with numbers in it's cells is a good example).
2. These data need to be fed to the artificial neural networks
application one row in a time. Let's say, we want to do stock
trading .To use a "one row in a time" approach, we need to
make sure that this row contains all the historical data we
need, for example, it can contain the today's data in the
row one, the yesterday's data in a row two, and so on.
3. We need to choose a Neural Network configuration -
number of neurons, activation type and so on. The
GUI presents a simple visual interface that allows us to do
just that

4. What we do next is training neural network. To do it, we
run it against part of the data in the "back propagation"
mode, using another part of the data to test the performance
of the network.
Here we can train the network for open, low, high, & close
Indexes.
5. After the neural networks optimization (training) is
completed, we can predict the indexes for next day.
To do it we need to generate a ―.xls‖ file.
Advantages and disadvantages:
• Neural networks are very suitable for
noisy or partial data sets. Transfer
functions, such as sigmoid functions
normally smoothen the variations
• ANNs can process and predict numeric
as well as categorical outcome.
• Neural networks have performed well in
certain domains where rules are not
defined and there is no structure.
• The network can be trained for
supervised and unsupervised
clustering.
 Weaknesses:
• The learning algorithms are not
guaranteed to converge to an optimal
solution. However, you can
manipulate with various learning
parameters.
• Neural networks can be easily over-
trained (memorize) to a point of
working well with training data but
perform poorly on test data. You
have to monitor this problem
carefully.
 The accuracy of prediction is not
100%. Therefore, there is always
a risk factor.
 It takes lots of training data and they
train slowly.
CONCLUSION
The predicted and the actual values are showing more than
95% accuracy in their values. Thus we conclude that the
network is sufficiently trained and can predict stock
market indexes accurately.

ACKNOWLEDGMENT
We gratefully acknowledge the able guidance of Mr.
Soumitra Das , Assistant Professor in Maharastra Academy
of Engineering without whose help the work done was not
possible.
REFERENCES
[1] Abhyankar, A., Copeland, L. S., & Wong, W.
(1997). Uncovering nonlinear structure in real-time
stockmarket indexes: The S&P 500, the DAX, the
Nikkei 225, and the FTSE-100. Journal of Business &
Economic Statistics, 15, 1–14.
[2] Austin, M. Looney, C., & Zhuo, J. (1997). Security
market timing using neural network models. New
Review of Applied Expert Systems, 3, 3–14.
[3] Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1970). Time series
analysis: Forecasting and control, Holden Day.
[4] Brownstone, D., (1996). Using percentage accuracy
to measure neural network predictions in stock market
movements. Neurocomputing, 10, 237–250.
[5] Goutam Dutta, Pankaj Jha, Arnab Kumar Laha and
Neeraj Mohan Artificial Neural Network Models for
Forecasting Stock Price Index in the Bombay Stock
Exchange Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Vol. 5,
No. 3, 283-295.
[6] Kuvayev Leonid, (1996) Predicting Financial
Markets with Neural Networks

StockMarketPrediction

More Related Content

What's hot (17)

Viewers also liked (9)

Similar to StockMarketPrediction (20)

StockMarketPrediction