Strategic Air Planning:
Is the time for a PAL here?
                        John Egan
                          All4 Inc.
       NCASI 2011 Northern Regional
                        Wausau, WI

                       May 19, 2011
Agenda
       Mounting air pressures
       Mill needs and expectations
       Major new source review struggles
       Importance of strategic planning
       Considerations for an advantage




2
Air Pressure
       NAAQS
       Boiler MACT/CISWI/NHSM
       Pulp & Paper MACT/Residual Risk
       GHG Regulation
       BART/Regional Haze
       Utility MACT/NSPS
       Multi-pollutant Rules
       Black Carbon
       More…

3
Air Pressure
       Common theme:
         For most facilities future emissions
         will decrease from historic actual
         levels as a result of new and
         developing air regulations and
         standards, regardless of growth in
         productivity.




4
Mill Needs
       Ability to change operations/equipment
        quickly and as needed
       Long range targets for planning:
         • Internal - production/energy/economics
         • External - rule driven costs to comply
       Clarity in regulatory requirements
        particularly for permitting



5
New Source Review
       NSR reminder:
        • Attainment Area = Prevention of
          Significant Deterioration (PSD), allowed
          to increase actual emissions but always
          a challenge
        • Non-attainment Area = Non-attainment
          New Source Review (NNSR), project
          has to improve area air quality



6
PSD Implementation
       Quick PSD implementation history for mill
        changes:
         • Old/old way (pre-reform)
         • Old/new way (post-reform)
         • New/new way (current & post 1-hr
           NAAQS)




7
Old/Old PSD
       Pre-NSR reform:
        • Actual-to-potential test
        • New limits to reduce PTE and avoid PSD
        • BACT main driver if PSD triggered
        • Air modeling a challenge for some
          pollutants but manageable
        • Implementation evolved over 25 years



8
Old/New PSD
       Post-NSR reform:
        • Actual-to-projected actual test
        • Better baseline/no new limits
          (supposedly)
        • Required to track relative to projections
        • Formal guidance evolved but limited
        • If PSD - BACT still a driver and air
          modeling still a challenge for some


9
New/New PSD
        Current & post 1-hr NAAQS:
         • Still actual-to-projected actual test
         • Concern w/excluded emissions
         • How to handle project on project
         • Watch out for netting
         • If PSD - air modeling more critical than
           BACT and can alter project design



10
Future Planning
        Strategic planning for facility future must
         consider implications of both new air rule
         applicability and air permitting implications:
          • New rules likely require facility changes
          • No exemption for pollution control
            projects
          • Permitting issues can impact project
            design


11
Future Planning
        Air issues must be integrated into facility
         operations planning
        Result will be same old push/pull for mill
         projects whether needed or required:
          • PSD applicability analysis
          • Potential impacts to project design, cost,
            schedule
          • Confusion and frustration


12
PAL Option
        “Plantwide Applicability Limitation” (PAL) is
         an available regulatory option that can
         potentially ease air permitting PSD cycle
        Federal PSD rule provides for PALs based
         on historic actual emissions
        PALs are pollutant specific and could be a
         critical part of a Mill strategic plan




13
PAL Advantages
        For a facility with a PAL permit that
         maintains emissions below PAL, physical
         changes and changes in method of
         operation are not major modifications and
         do not require approval under PSD




14
Why a PAL Now?
        PALs historically worked for relatively
         simple industries with limited sources and
         where technology was driving emissions
         lower per unit of production
        New air quality world we are in is forcing
         mills to realization that future emissions will
         be lower per unit of production driven by
         rules, standards, permitting, technology…



15
Why a PAL Now?
        Must be able to track and report emissions
         against PAL
        Historically mills saw too many sources
         and not enough data to justify a PAL
        Data and tools now available for
         demonstrating compliance due to other
         rule activities (e.g., ICR work)




16
Establishing a PAL
        Same baseline actual emissions used in
         PSD applicability assessment:
         • Adjust for current applicable
           requirements
         • Add PSD significance threshold
         • Justify PAL and provide method of
           compliance




17
PAL Concerns
        PAL established for 10 year period
        PAL can be adjusted down to account for
         new applicable requirements
        Getting out of a PAL can have serious
         ramifications
        State/local air construction permits may
         still be required




18
PAL Planning Approach
        Develop historic mill-wide baseline
         emission rates and potential PAL levels
        Address potential NAAQS issues
        Consider new rules, mill operations plans,
         potential energy efficiency improvements,
         new technologies, low hanging fruit for
         emissions reductions
        Weigh value of PAL for each pollutant


19
Final Thoughts
        For typical mill projects PSD is no longer a
         consideration under a PAL
        For planning mill now has a clear bright
         line it can manage operations to
        Project timing may result in competitive
         advantage
        Future second guessing by agency of PSD
         applicability decisions and potential
         enforcement issues off the table

20
Questions?


       jegan@all4inc.com

             All4 Inc.
       2393 Kimberton Road
           P.O. Box 299
       Kimberton, PA 19442
     610.933.5246 x14 and x20

         www.all4inc.com




21

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Strategic Air Planning: Is the time for a PAL here?

  • 1. Strategic Air Planning: Is the time for a PAL here? John Egan All4 Inc. NCASI 2011 Northern Regional Wausau, WI May 19, 2011
  • 2. Agenda  Mounting air pressures  Mill needs and expectations  Major new source review struggles  Importance of strategic planning  Considerations for an advantage 2
  • 3. Air Pressure  NAAQS  Boiler MACT/CISWI/NHSM  Pulp & Paper MACT/Residual Risk  GHG Regulation  BART/Regional Haze  Utility MACT/NSPS  Multi-pollutant Rules  Black Carbon  More… 3
  • 4. Air Pressure  Common theme: For most facilities future emissions will decrease from historic actual levels as a result of new and developing air regulations and standards, regardless of growth in productivity. 4
  • 5. Mill Needs  Ability to change operations/equipment quickly and as needed  Long range targets for planning: • Internal - production/energy/economics • External - rule driven costs to comply  Clarity in regulatory requirements particularly for permitting 5
  • 6. New Source Review  NSR reminder: • Attainment Area = Prevention of Significant Deterioration (PSD), allowed to increase actual emissions but always a challenge • Non-attainment Area = Non-attainment New Source Review (NNSR), project has to improve area air quality 6
  • 7. PSD Implementation  Quick PSD implementation history for mill changes: • Old/old way (pre-reform) • Old/new way (post-reform) • New/new way (current & post 1-hr NAAQS) 7
  • 8. Old/Old PSD  Pre-NSR reform: • Actual-to-potential test • New limits to reduce PTE and avoid PSD • BACT main driver if PSD triggered • Air modeling a challenge for some pollutants but manageable • Implementation evolved over 25 years 8
  • 9. Old/New PSD  Post-NSR reform: • Actual-to-projected actual test • Better baseline/no new limits (supposedly) • Required to track relative to projections • Formal guidance evolved but limited • If PSD - BACT still a driver and air modeling still a challenge for some 9
  • 10. New/New PSD  Current & post 1-hr NAAQS: • Still actual-to-projected actual test • Concern w/excluded emissions • How to handle project on project • Watch out for netting • If PSD - air modeling more critical than BACT and can alter project design 10
  • 11. Future Planning  Strategic planning for facility future must consider implications of both new air rule applicability and air permitting implications: • New rules likely require facility changes • No exemption for pollution control projects • Permitting issues can impact project design 11
  • 12. Future Planning  Air issues must be integrated into facility operations planning  Result will be same old push/pull for mill projects whether needed or required: • PSD applicability analysis • Potential impacts to project design, cost, schedule • Confusion and frustration 12
  • 13. PAL Option  “Plantwide Applicability Limitation” (PAL) is an available regulatory option that can potentially ease air permitting PSD cycle  Federal PSD rule provides for PALs based on historic actual emissions  PALs are pollutant specific and could be a critical part of a Mill strategic plan 13
  • 14. PAL Advantages  For a facility with a PAL permit that maintains emissions below PAL, physical changes and changes in method of operation are not major modifications and do not require approval under PSD 14
  • 15. Why a PAL Now?  PALs historically worked for relatively simple industries with limited sources and where technology was driving emissions lower per unit of production  New air quality world we are in is forcing mills to realization that future emissions will be lower per unit of production driven by rules, standards, permitting, technology… 15
  • 16. Why a PAL Now?  Must be able to track and report emissions against PAL  Historically mills saw too many sources and not enough data to justify a PAL  Data and tools now available for demonstrating compliance due to other rule activities (e.g., ICR work) 16
  • 17. Establishing a PAL  Same baseline actual emissions used in PSD applicability assessment: • Adjust for current applicable requirements • Add PSD significance threshold • Justify PAL and provide method of compliance 17
  • 18. PAL Concerns  PAL established for 10 year period  PAL can be adjusted down to account for new applicable requirements  Getting out of a PAL can have serious ramifications  State/local air construction permits may still be required 18
  • 19. PAL Planning Approach  Develop historic mill-wide baseline emission rates and potential PAL levels  Address potential NAAQS issues  Consider new rules, mill operations plans, potential energy efficiency improvements, new technologies, low hanging fruit for emissions reductions  Weigh value of PAL for each pollutant 19
  • 20. Final Thoughts  For typical mill projects PSD is no longer a consideration under a PAL  For planning mill now has a clear bright line it can manage operations to  Project timing may result in competitive advantage  Future second guessing by agency of PSD applicability decisions and potential enforcement issues off the table 20
  • 21. Questions? [email protected] All4 Inc. 2393 Kimberton Road P.O. Box 299 Kimberton, PA 19442 610.933.5246 x14 and x20 www.all4inc.com 21