Sustainable transporation planning – a systems approach

Sustainable Transporation Planning – A Systems Approach, P.Ponnurangam, A, Dr.G.Umadevi, B,
Journal Impact Factor (2015): 9.1215 (Calculated by GISI) www.jifactor.com
www.iaeme.com/ijciet.asp 187 editor@iaeme.com
1
M.E – Transportation Engineering,
College of Engineering, Guindy Anna University, Chennai – 600 025
2
Professor, Division of Transportation Engineering,
College of Engineering, Guindy Anna University, Chennai – 600 025
ABSTRACT
Chennai is the fourth largest metropolitan city of India which covers an area of 426 sq.km
and recorded a population of 46.81 lakhs in 2011. The Chennai Metropolitan Area which extends
over an area of 1189 sq.km recorded the population of 86.96 lakhs in 2011 and the density is 11,000
per sq.km. The population of Chennai in 1639 was 40,000 and today the city is estimated to have a
population of 7.5 million, which gives a population density of about 6482 per sq. km. This rapid
increase in population leads to traffic congestion and imbalanced supply and demand of transport
facilities. Thus it is important to develop a dynamic model which would exhibit the invention of
various transportation facilities in Chennai and to estimate the travel demand for both present and
future situation. Hence in this study, it is intended to make an attempt to develop the System
Dynamics model using STELLA simulation software. Model is developed for population, transport
demand and supply individually. Also a micro level model is developed to define the V/C ratio of the
different hierarchy of roads. After developing the model collected data are fed into the model and
initial calibration was done. The model has been tested for different scenarios after it is validated.
Hence, from the model results to suggest appropriate course of actions in a phase-wise manner
towards achieving sustainable transportation planning for Chennai city.
Keywords: System Dynamics; Simulation Model; Public Transport; Mode Share; Sustainable
planning.
1. INTRODUCTION
1.1 General
The sustainable development of urban transportation system is a key point to strike the
resource-saving, environment-friendly, and people-oriented society. The conception of sustainable
urban transportation comprises four aspects, namely, economic sustainability, environmental
sustainability, social sustainability, and transportation sustainability. Urban transportation system is a
complex system with multiple variables and feedback loops between subsystems and influencing
factors. It is not appropriate to use the ordinary linear quantitative approach to describe the
SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORATION PLANNING – A
SYSTEMS APPROACH
P.Ponnurangam.A1
, Dr.G.Umadevi.B2
Volume 6, Issue 6, June (2015), pp. 187-195
Article Id: 20320150606019
International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology (IJCIET)
© IAEME: www.iaeme.com/Ijciet.asp
ISSN 0976 – 6308 (Print)
ISSN 0976 – 6316(Online)
IJCIET
© I A E M E

characteristics of this complex system. Therefore, system dynamics (SD) approach is used in this
study to simulate the evolution of urban transportation system; specifically the existing and future
trips performed in the city and the demand and supply of the city.
1.2 Objectives of the Study
 To study and appreciate the trend of transport development in Chennai with regards to
Transportation Demand and Supply.
 To build a Macro level system dynamics simulation model for the existing and predicted
period.
 To build micro level model to evaluate the service volumes for various hierarchies of roads as
well.
 To suggest appropriate course of actions in a phase-wise manner towards achieving sustainable
transportation planning for Chennai city.
2. SYSTEM DYNAMICS
2.1 Principles of System Dynamics
System dynamics has a long history as a modelling paradigm with its origin in the work
(Forrestor 1969), who developed the subject to provide in understanding of strategic problems in
complex and dynamic systems. System dynamics model, by giving insight feedback processes,
provide system uses with a better understanding of the dynamic behaviour of systems. Areas of
application of system dynamics have always been very wide, however, with an emphasis on socio-
economic applications.
2.2 Building Blocks of Model
The system dynamics model has four basic building blocks as listed below:
 Stocks
Stocks or levels are used to represent anything that accumulates. An example of stock would
be population level at one point of time.
 Flows
Flows or rates represent activities that increase and decrease stocks. An example of flow
includes birth rate or death rate.
 Connectors
Connectors are used to establish the relationship among variables in the model. The software
represents them graphically as arrows. They carry information, which can be a quantity, constants,
an algebraic relationship or a graphical relationship.
 Converters
Converters transform input into output. Converters can accept input in the form of algebraic
relationships, graphs and Tables.
2.3 Model Development Life Cycle
The model development process is summarized in the schematic diagrams of a model life
cycle in figure 2.1.

Fig 2.1 System Dynamics model development lifecycle
2.4 Phases of Model Building Process
It is the process of defining a problem out of a situation, developing various relationships
quantitatively, testing the model with several policy options and analyzing the behaviour of the
model. The various phases in model building process are:
 Problem definition
 System conceptualization
 Model representation
 Model behaviour
 Model evaluation
 Policy analysis and model use
3. METHODOLOGY
Primary data like volume count, road geometrics and secondary data including different
modes of transport supply provided by the government are collected from the respected departments
/ institutions like CMDA, Metropolitan Transport Corporation (Chennai) Ltd, MRTS Division,
Southern Railway, Chennai. Causal loop diagrams are developed in order to found the relationship
between different components related to transportation. And then System Dynamics STELLA model
is developed for population, transport demand and supply individually. Also a sub model is also
developed to define the V/C ratio of the different hierarchy of roads. After developing the model
collected data are fed into the model and initial calibration was done. The model has been run for
different scenarios and it is validated. From the model results a desirable scenario is suggested in
order to attain sustainability in terms of transportation.
Define purpose (goal) of system
Specific System boundaries
Identify key variable
Describe behaviour of key variables
Identify stocks and flows in the system
Run model to test system
Map system structure in modelling
Apply model for simulation

4. DATA COLLECTION
4.1 Primary Data Collected
On all the three roads hourly flow is calculated based on the collected data. In that Rajiv
Gandhi salai towards Adyar from Tidel Park, the vehicle flow is more (7705.1) during 6pm to 7pm.
The other hourly flow variations on all the three roads (with respect to time) are discussed in the
table 4.1.
4.2 Secondary Data Collected
Some of the secondary data which are collected for the scenarios analysis are number of private
and public trips, average daily passengers carried by both train and bus, future project details like
Metro and BRT etc. These details are collected from the respective departments/ institutions and
have been used in the model.
4.3 Metro Details
The Chennai Metro is a mass-transit rail system in the Indian city of Chennai. The metro rail
work split in to 7 corridors and presently work is under construction in Corridor 1 & 2.
Table No 4.1 Hourly flow on All Three Roads
PERIOD
HOURLY FLOW
IT Corridor(towards)
Sardar Patel Road
(towards)
LB Road (towards)
Adyar IT Adyar Rajbhavan Adyar Thiruvanmiyur
3.30 - 4.30 2696 4284.15 2981.95 3176.9 2366.7 1973.35
3.45 - 4.45 2759.75 4518.35 3183.3 3291.05 2419.8 1995.45
4.00 - 5.00 2805.8 4501.95 3487.25 3400.5 2445.2 2019.7
4.15 - 5.15 2919.15 4530.7 3613.9 3501 2444.65 2018
4.30 - 5.30 3123.3 4764.45 3719.4 3589.7 2433.15 1998.2
4.45 - 5.45 3420.7 5169.3 3772.9 3668.85 2470.6 2035.9
5.00 - 6.00 3590.5 5127.75 3668.05 3721.45 2475.65 2058.2
5.15 - 6.15 4226.95 5244.5 3808.05 3770.8 2529.35 2070.6
5.30 - 6.00 4967.55 5002.6 3871.8 3747.35 2620.85 2124.65
5.45 - 6.45 6139.85 4705.95 3855.35 3741.35 2623.65 2154.55
6.00 - 7.00 7705.1 4511.7 3899.15 3742.75 2692.6 2156.45
6.15 - 7.15 7326.45 4264.1 3813.95 3593.6 2733.2 2166.95
6.30 - 7.30 6322.05 3986.35 3682.8 3539.95 2683.9 2190.15
Table No 4.2 MTC Strength Details
S. No Different Components of MTC Strength
1 Depots 25
2 Fleet 3257
3 Route 622
4 Passengers per day 43.55 Lakhs
5 Collection per day 181.58 Lakhs
Source: Metropolitan Transport Corporation (Chennai) Ltd.

Table No 4.3 Types of Bus Services
S.No Type of Service Number of Buses
1 Single floor 2253
2 Semi low floor buses 874
3 Vestibule buses 100
4 Volvo A/C buses 30
5 Total 3257
Source: Metropolitan Transport Corporation (Chennai) Ltd.
Table No.4.4 MRTS Details
1 Total Length 25 km
2 No. of stations 17
3 No of Runs(Up and Down) 62 Pairs
4 Frequency 20 minutes
5 Average number of persons used daily 80,000
Source: MRTS Division, Southern Railway, Chennai.
4.4 Model Development
The most crucial part of the study is the model development.The Steps involved in the
development of model are the following:
 Formation of Causal loop diagram
 Identification of key variables involved in the process.
 Model Development
 Calibration of Model
 Validation of model
 Simulation of various scenarios
 Model results
4.4.1 Formation of causal loop diagram
A causal loop diagram shows the cause and effect of each variable with respect to other
variables. Usually a positive effect is indicated using the ‘+’ sign and negative effect with ‘–‘effect.
The causal loop diagrams are represented separately for the individual sectors and as a whole and
depict the fig 4.1 and fig 4.2.
Fig 4.1 Causal Loop Diagram for Population Sector

Fig 4.2 Causal Loop Diagram for Transport Sector
4.4.2 Identification of key variables
The key variables are necessary for development of the model. The following are some of the
key variables identified for model development.
 Existing Population
 Population Growth rates
 Immigration Trends
 Per Capita Trip Rate
 Mode Share of Trips
 Demand and supply of transportation
4.4.3 Model development
After the identification of important variables, the model is developed. The model is divided
into three major sectors namely
 Population Sector
 Transport Demand Sector
 Transport Supply Sector
4.4.4 Calibration of Model
There is no universal model that can run for all conditions with an unaltered set of
parameters. Parameters must be checked and adjusted within the known range to avoid unrealistic
projections.
4.4.5 Validation of Model
The Validation is an important step in model development, which determines the realistic
feature of model. The model is validated for the demand and supply of transportation facilities using
the previous data.
4.3.6 Simulation of various scenarios
The various scenarios for which the model was run are as follows:
 Do-minimum Scenario
 Completion of current projects – As per plan Scenario
 Project Delay Scenario
 Achievement of Desirable Demand Supply Scenario.

4.5 Description of the Model
4.5.1 Population Sector
In this sector, population of the base year, birth rate, death rate, immigration and
outmigration are considered. The size of the population is influenced by both the net birth rate and
net migration rate. The net birth rate equals the total number of births per year minus the total
number of deaths. Similarly, the net migration rate equals the number of immigrants minus the
number of out migrants. However, the number of births and deaths as well as net immigrants can be
defined as a yearly percentage of the population. It is represented in the figure 4.3.
4.4.1 Transport Demand and Supply Sector
The main sector is the total trips sector in which the total trips, motorised trips and non-
motorised trips are calculated. The sub sectors include the motorised trips sector, non motorised trips
sector and public transport supply sector.
In the total trips sector, the total number of trips generated from the area is calculated from
the population and the per capita trip rate. The motorised and non-motorised trips are calculated
simultaneously from the total trips with the help of respective trip fractions.
Fig 4.3 Population Model
Fig 4.4 Transport Demand Sector Model
Population
Birth Rate Death Rate
In Migration Rate
~
Birth Normal
~
In Migration Normal
~
Death Normal
Out Migration Rate
~
Out Migration Normal
POPULATION MODEL
Total Trips
Trip Inc
~
Per Capita Trip rate
Mot Trips
Veh Inc
~
Veh Mode Share
Non Motor Trips
NM Inc
~
Non Mtr
Mode Share
Mot Trips
Per Trips
Per Trips Inc
Rail Trips
Rail Trip Inc
Bus Trips
Bus Trip Inc
IPT Trips
IPT Trip Inc
~
Bus Trip
Fraction
~
IPT Trip
Fraction
~
Per Trip
Fraction
~
Rail Trip Fraction
POPN
Transport Demand Sector

In the non motorised trips sector the walk trips and cycle trips are estimated. In the motorised
trips sector the personal vehicle trips, IPT (Intermittent Para Transit) trips and bus trips are
estimated. In the scenarios, the supply sector is used to calculate the supply of public transport
against the demand of the area i.e. the supply-demand ratio is calculated. The model is shown in
figures 4.4 and 4.5.
Fig 4.5 Transport Supply Sector Model
5. RESULTS
The following are the summary of results obtained from the analysis of the models through
various scenarios.
 In the do minimum scenario of the city model, population reaches only 53 lakhs due to the
reduction in the birth rate.
 Birth rate is decreased from 0.23 in the base year to 0.15 in the projected year.
 Demand supply ratio for the do minimum scenario decreases from 1.71 to 1.45 even if the
existing trend continues.
 But in the second scenario, demand supply ratio further drops to 1.21 due to the execution
major projects like Metro and BRT because the two alone would take 20% of the vehicular
travel demand.
 In the project delayed scenario, if the proposed projects get delayed by 3 years then it again
increases the demand supply ratio to 1.34.
 The ideal demand supply ratio should be arrived from the desirable scenario. Here bus
augmentation is increased from 0.1 to 0.2 and MRTS is augmented at the rate of 0.15 with the
likes of Metro and BRT, the demand supply ratio reached the desirable value of 0.73
 In the do minimum scenario for the CMA model, the population crosses the 1 crore nos. during
the projected period. As differ from the city model, instead of decreasing in demand supply
ratio, here it headed in increasing trend. It reaches almost 2 at the final year.
 In the desirable scenario, mode share of motorized trips is decreased from 54% to 40%, bus
augmentation is increased by 0.01 and MRTS by 0.05 rate then the demand supply ratio
decreased to 0.80
 Bus augmentation rate, MRTS augmentation rate and per capita trip rate are the three sensitive
variables in the city model
 V/C ratio gets increased in all the roads, if the existing trend in mode share continues upto the
projected year. It reaches 2.55 in Sardar Patel road, 1.90 in Rajiv Gandhi Salai and 1.80 in LB
road.
 In order to reduce the V/C ratio, the mode share of the vehicles are taken as per the master plan
i.e. 70% public mode and 30% of private mode. Now the mode share is decreased to 0.7
BUS CAP
BUS AUG
BUS
AUG RTE
SUB
CAP
SUB AUG
SUB
AUG RTE
MRTS
CAP
MTRO
CAP
MRTS
CAP AUG
MRTS
AUG RTE
METRO
CAP AUG
METRO
AUG RTE
TOTAL
RAIL SUPPLY
Mot Trips
TOTAL PUB
SUPPLY
DEMAND
SUPPLY RATIO
TOTAL BUS SUPPLY
BRT CAP
BRT AUG
BRT AUG RTE
TRANSPORT SUPPLY SECTOR

6. RECOMMENDATIONS
The following are the conclusions and recommendations made by this study.
 Demand for transport facilities keeps on increasing both in City and CMA region due to
significant improvement in socioeconomic factors of the people.
 Per capita trip rate is accelerating at much faster rate.
 Existing supply of transport facilities by the government doesn’t meet with the requirements of
public demand.
 To bring down the demand supply ratio to 1, government should augment the existing facilities
at a higher rate than normal.
 Government should encourage the public to use the public transport by providing more supply in
terms of both quantity and quality.
 When the desired public private share of 70:30 is achieved, congestion on the roads reduces
drastically, thereby reducing the travel time of passengers.
 Transportation alone contributes 80% of air pollution in urban areas.
 If the desirable mode share is achieved as per the plan, air pollution will reduce significantly.
 It not only makes the environment good, but also it saves more energy resources.
 Thus increase in public transport facilities will provide a sustainable solution to urban
transportation problems.
7. REFERENCES
1. Charles Raux, (2003) “A System dynamics model for the urban travel system” Association for
European Transport, France.
2. Kadiyali.L.R. (1985), “Traffic and Transportation Planning” Khanna Publishers, New Delhi.
3. National Urban Transport Policy (2003), India.
4. National Urban Health Policy (2002), India.
5. Second Master Plan for Chennai Metropolitan Area 2026, Chennai Metropolitan Development
Authority.
6. Suresh.V (2008) “Characterization of Heterogeneous Traffic Flow on Divided Urban Roads”
Ph.D Thesis, Anna University, Chennai.
7. Thiagaraj.N (2008) “Transit Oriented Land Use Development along MRTS Phase II” M.E
Thesis, Anna University, Chennai.
8. Umadevi.G (2001) “Land Use and Transport Interaction Model - System Approach” Ph.D
Thesis, Anna University, Chennai.
9. Vijayalakshmi.M (2009) “Transits Oriented Land Use Development using STELLA 9.1.1”
Ph.D Thesis, Anna University, Chennai.
10. Vishnu Vardhan.J (2009) “System Dynamics Modeling for Chennai City” M.E Thesis, Anna
University, Chennai.
11. Wang Jifeng and Lu Huapu (2008), “System Dynamics Model of Urban Transportation
System”
12. Yuri V. Yevdokimov, (2004) “Sustainable Transportation in Canada” Assistant Professor,
Departments of Economics and Civil Engineering University of New Brunswick, Canada.
13. Arindam Banerjee and Prof. Siladitya Sen, “Statistical Performance Analysis of Wireless
Communication In Public Transports & Improving Performance Through Integrated
Heterogeneous Network” International Journal of Civil Engineering & Technology (IJCIET),
Volume 4, Issue 2, 2013, pp. 290 - 299, ISSN Print: 0976 – 6308, ISSN Online: 0976 – 6316.

Sustainable transporation planning – a systems approach

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