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Ted Jones Economic Outlook 2018
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- 3. Immediate Impact • Lossof Jobs • Declining Home Sales 6-12 Months Later • Strong Job Growth • Rising Home Sales Disaster Economic Impact
- 4. 400 450 500 550 600 650 '02 '03 '04'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 New Orleans MSA Employment Thousands – Seasonally Adjusted Hurricane Katrina
- 5. 35 38 40 43 45 48 50 '02 '03 '04'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 Punta Gorda MSA Employment Thousands – Seasonally Adjusted Hurricane Charlie
- 6. Cape Coral-Ft MyersMSA Home Sales 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 Closings Per Months Hurricane Charlie August 2004 12,281 Aug 2003- July 2004 13,646 +11.1% Sep 2004- Aug 2005 +11.1%
- 7. U.S. Existing HomeSales 0 200 400 600 800 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 Closings Per Months Thousands Hurricane Charlie August 2004 6.609 Million Aug 2003- July 2004 7.027 Million +6.3% Sep 2004- Aug 2005 +6.3%
- 8. 125 130 135 140 145 150 '07 '08 '09'10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 U.S. Jobs Jobs (Millions) Seasonally Adjusted 1.45% Prior 12 Months 2.11 Million Net New Jobs in Past 12-Months
- 9. U.S. Leisure &Hospitality Jobs 0 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 12.5 13.0 13.5 14.0 14.5 15.0 15.5 16.0 16.5 Recession Millions of Jobs Seasonally-Adjusted +2.15% Past 12 Months The Blood Pressure Test of the U.S. Economy
- 10. Percent Percent Gain Percent AverageActual of U.S. Year- Current of All 12-Month Monthly Monthly Monthly Over- Job Segment Thousands Jobs Gain Gain Gain Gain Year- Total U.S. Jobs 147,380 100.0% 2,055 171.25 148.0 100.0% 1.41% Mining & Logging 727 0.5% 59 4.92 - 0.0% 8.83% Construction 6,993 4.7% 210 17.50 30.0 20.3% 3.10% Manufacturing 12,539 8.5% 196 16.33 25.0 16.9% 1.59% Trade, Transportation & Utilities 27,448 18.6% 74 6.17 (10.0) -6.8% 0.27% Wholesale Trade 5,959 4.0% 71 5.90 9.8 6.6% 1.20% Retail Trade 15,815 10.7% (67) (5.54) (20.3) -13.7% -0.42% Information 2,722 1.8% (40) (3.33) 7.0 4.7% -1.45% Financial Activities 8,498 5.8% 134 11.17 6.0 4.1% 1.60% Professional & Business Services 20,943 14.2% 527 43.92 19.0 12.8% 2.58% Other Services 5,810 3.9% 109 9.08 12.0 8.1% 1.91% Leisure & Hospitality 16,050 10.9% 306 25.50 29.0 19.6% 1.94% Government 22,341 15.2% 42 3.50 2.0 1.4% 0.19% Raw Data U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 2017 U.S. Job Performance Jobs - Thousands
- 11. U.S. Net JobGains – Trailing 12-Months 0 1 2 3 4 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 Jobs - Millions
- 12. $23 $24 $25 $26 $27 '12 '13 '14'15 '16 '17 '18 U.S. Average Hourly Earnings $US Per Hour Up 2.9 Percent in Past 12-Months To $26.94 Per Hour
- 13. Nevada 3.31% Wisconsin1.37% Indiana 0.89% Oregon 2.66% Pennsylvania 1.33% Maine 0.81% Utah 2.61% Michigan 1.31% Vermont 0.80% Texas 2.53% Arizona 1.28% Missouri 0.79% Florida 2.51% Minnesota 1.28% New Hampshire 0.79% South Carolina 2.25% New Mexico 1.24% Virginia 0.77% Washington 2.08% Oklahoma 1.24% Ohio 0.70% Idaho 2.08% Rhode Island 1.22% New Jersey 0.56% California 2.06% Maryland 1.15% Illinois 0.49% Colorado 2.03% Hawaii 1.10% Connecticut 0.46% Georgia 1.88% Kentucky 1.10% Kansas 0.45% Iowa 1.80% Nebraska 1.07% North Dakota 0.41% Montana 1.76% New York 1.04% Wyoming 0.40% Massachusetts 1.76% Dist of Columbia 1.02% Louisiana 0.28% Alabama 1.72% Tennessee 0.96% West Virginia 0.17% North Carolina 1.71% South Dakota 0.92% Delaware -0.13% Mississippi 1.55% Arkansas 0.91% Alaska -0.67% Job Growth Rates - 12 Months Ending December 2017
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- 17. 90% of workersshould see an increase when new guidelines are implemented January 16, 2018
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- 20. 130,000+ Millennial Poll WouldYou Rather? 47% Have an Easy Job Working for Someone Else 53% Work for Yourself But Work Incredibly Hard 9GAG + GfK Research
- 21. 130,000+ Millennial Poll WouldYou Rather? 29% Commit to a Guaranteed Job for Next 3 Years 71% Commit to a Start-Up Opportunity 9GAG + GfK Research
- 22. 130,000+ Millennial Poll WouldYou Rather? 95% Gain 10 Friends in Real Life 5% Gain 10,000 Friends on Instagram-Twitter 9GAG + GfK Research
- 23. 130,000+ Millennial Poll WouldYou Rather? 33% Lose the Right to Vote 67% Lose the Right to Say Anything on Social Media 9GAG + GfK Research
- 24. 130,000+ Millennial Poll WouldYou Rather? 43% Give Up Sex 57% Give Up the Internet 9GAG + GfK Research
- 25. Atlanta Austin BostonChicago Columbus Dallas Denver Indianapolis Los Angeles Miami Montgomery County, Maryland Nashville Newark New York City Northern Virginia Philadelphia Pittsburgh Raleigh Toronto Washington, D.C. Amazon’s 2nd Headquarters Finalists
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- 27. 950 1,000 1,050 1,100 1,150 1,200 1,250 1,300 '07 '08 '09'10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 Orlando MSA Jobs Jobs (Thousands) Seasonally Adjusted 3.76 Percent Prior 12 Months 46,100 Net New Jobs in Past 12-Months 8,200 Jobs Lost in September
- 28. Percent MSA-Division Change NewTotal Cape Coral-Fort Myers 0.38% 1.0 261.6 Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin 2.60% 2.9 114.6 Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond 3.23% 6.4 204.8 Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach Metro Div2.08% 17.3 849.6 Gainesville 2.12% 3.0 144.4 Jacksonville 2.58% 17.4 691.5 Lakeland-Winter Haven 2.84% 6.2 224.5 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach 2.48% 64.9 2,678.9 Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall Metro Div 3.02% 35.3 1,203.5 Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island 2.94% 4.2 146.9 North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton 3.46% 10.4 310.7 12-Months Jobs-Thousands MSA & Division Job Growth -- 12 Months Ending December 2017
- 29. Percent MSA-Division Change NewTotal Ocala 0.78% 0.8 103.9 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford 3.76% 46.1 1,270.6 Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville 0.70% 1.5 214.6 Panama City 2.38% 2.0 86.1 Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent 1.72% 3.0 177.0 Port St. Lucie 0.97% 1.4 146.0 Punta Gorda 3.31% 1.6 49.9 Sebastian-Vero Beach 1.55% 0.8 52.4 Tallahassee 1.05% 1.9 182.4 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater 2.23% 29.4 1,346.6 W. Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Delray Beach Metro Div 1.82% 11.2 625.9 12-Months Jobs-Thousands MSA & Division Job Growth -- 12 Months Ending December 2017
- 30. U.S. Existing HomeSales & Median Prices Sales Trailing 12 Months $175 $200 $225 $250 $275 '14 '15 '16 '17 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6 Median Price Homes Sales Median Price $ Thousands Home Sales 12-Months Millions
- 31. Orlando MSA SFRHome Sales & Median Prices Sales Trailing 12 Months $150 $175 $200 $225 $250 $275 14 '15 '16 '17 '18 26,000 28,000 30,000 32,000 34,000 Median Price Homes Sales Median Price $ Thousands Home Sales 12-Months
- 32. Orlando MSA CondoSales & Median Prices Sales Trailing 12 Months $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 $140 $150 $160 14 '15 '16 '17 '18 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 Median Price Homes Sales Median Price $ Thousands Home Sales 12-Months
- 33. Orlando MSA ResidentialBuilding Permits 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 Single Family Multi Number of Dwelling Units 19,432 Permits is the past 12 months, 46,100 Net New Jobs 2.37 New Jobs Per New Dwelling Unit – 1.25 to 1.5 is Normal
- 34. Mega Themes 2018 •More Jobs Than Ever in History • Tax Reform Implications MID SALT • Entry Level Homebuyers Strong • Rising Interest Rates • Commercial Sales Cooling - End of Cycle • Strong Economy Potential!
- 35. Household Debt Serviceas a Percent of Household Disposable Income 9 10 11 12 13 14 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 Percent FED Board of Governors, BEA
- 36. $150 $160 $170 $180 $190 $200 '02 '03 '04'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 U.S. Real Retail & Food Service Sales $ Billions – Seasonally Adjusted
- 37. 0 4 8 12 16 20 '04 '05 '06'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 Light Weight Vehicle Sales Millions – Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Bureau of Economic Analysis Cash For Clunkers Harvey-Irma
- 38. Federal Debt –Total Public Debt 0 3 5 8 10 13 15 18 20 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 $ Trillions St Louis Federal reserve
- 39. Federal Debt Interest Payments InMarch 2017 30% Greater Than March 2016
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- 41. $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 '02 '03 '04'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 U.S. Commercial Real Estate Sales Volume $ Billions – Trailing 12 Months Property and Portfolio Sales $2.5 Million and Up -6.7 Percent Year-Over-Year
- 42. $0 $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 '02 '03 '04'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 Orlando Commercial Real Estate Sales $ Billions – Trailing 12 Months Property and Portfolio Sales $2.5 Million and Up
- 43. $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 '02 '03 '04'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 U.S. Commercial Real Estate Sales Volume $ Billions – Quarterly Property and Portfolio Sales $2.5 Million and Up -12.7 Percent Q4 2017 vs Q4 2016
- 44. 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% '02 '03 '04'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 US Sarasota-Ft Myers Orlando Commercial Real Estate Cap Rates Percent – All Property Types, 4 Quarter Moving Average Property and Portfolio Sales $2.5 Million and Up
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- 48. Days to Drill& Fracture 4 Years Ago -- 40 Days Now – 19 Days
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- 50. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 Alaska Drilling RigCounts Number of Operating Rigs
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- 54. 2018 • Strong PotentialEconomy corporate tax cut • Mortgage Interest some states • State Tax Deductions some states • Inflation – Unraveling Quantitative Easing QE • Rising Interest Rates • Increased Incomes • Cheap Energy Drives Overall US Economy Tax Law Impacts
- 55. 2018 Forecast -Ted C. Jones Chief Economist • Existing Home Sales +1.96% Say 2 Percent • Existing Home Price +3.6 Percent • New Home Sales + 9.2 Percent • New Home Prices + 4.1 Percent • 30-Year Residential Rates 4.7 to 5.3 Percent • Refinance Volume Dropping from 35% to 25% • Commercial Real Estate Sales -15 Percent • Most Talked About News – Mid-Term Elections
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