Transformational Technologies and
Creating new demand for ICT services
 - The Future of Broadband and ICT -




           Gerd Leonhard
Futurist (Media & Communications)
    CEO of The Futures Agency
   Author & Think-Tank Leader
TeleMedia
Telecom   Media Convergence
This year’s biggest driver...?
Broadcast « » Broadband




                    Social Networks = CableTV
                        without the Cable
 Source: Monty.de
The future is already here...
Real Digital Natives
The Networked Society


    Broadband Culture
Drivers of Broadband
  Content Open Standards
Data Control Sustainability
Ecosystems     Balance
  Equality    Innovation
   Mobile Interdependence
Content
People of the Cloud
...will expect a lot more than mere ‘distribution’
TV you can read, Newspapers you can watch
Whatever can go digital... will go digital
Useless without content - and...
Useless without connectivity
                !
Sharing is and will remain a key driver




                                Image via Flickr.com/rubicon
Piracy: failed business models + faster networks + cheaper devices




                                    CEO of MacMillan UK, April 2011, via PaidContent.org
Content 2.0:
Access not Copy
Rebirth of the content business
ETA: 3 years
Masses of Niches




Source: thecarbonara blog
More and more ‘real’ content ‘over the top’
The problem is not the ‘pay’ - it’s the wall!




Source:
A new standard in a hyper-connected economy:
Data
& Control
“Minority Report” is becoming reality
Standards
  Transparency
    Trust Guarantees
     Interoperability
            The Commons
...this cannot all be about commercial gains...
Who decides...?
A very important trend...
Ecosystems
The Future: ‘Inter-Connected Business Models’
Not value chains but value cycles (*Umair Haque)
                                  (*Umair Haque)
A new ICT | Media | Advertising


Ecosystem
TeleMedia Futures: a new ECOsystem
             Content (Creators, Publishers,
                                                    Advertisers
                     Distributors)
Telcos &
 Opera-                                                Device
  tors                                                 Makers




                                              Search & Tech
             Social Networks                   i.e. Media 2.0
Legal, easy and affordable availability of content
is a major factor in broadband uptake (and society!)




              source: flickr.com/sameli
Telemedia Futures:
 OTT        Bundled                       Masses of Niches




Freemium         Going Direct            Standardized Licenses



             source: flickr.com/sameli
Equality
Mobile
Dramatically increased importance of Mobile Broadband
Open
Standards
Obsession with Control inevitably leads to decline




Source: ARS
One to many   Many to Many
“The people formerly known as consumers”
Open                       Open Licenses
Technologies



                 Ultra-fast
                Broadband

                                   Open
Open Policies                    Business
                                  Models
Not sustainable
Welcome to the new worldview: ECOsystems




   Good luck. Protection breaks the EcoSystem
Urgent: Copy(Usage)-Right for a digital ecosystem
Sustainability
Balance
A slew of new, unprecedent ‘digital society challenges’
And considerable confusion
Innovation
Complete Reboot of Education and Learning
Interdependence
A Serious Paradigm Challenge
                                                           Source: Tiffany Shlain: ‘Connected - The Movie’




Source: Monty Metzger Monty.de
Hyper-Competition   ➲   Hyper-Collaboration
Summary
Gerd.fm/freepdfs




        (Kindle)

The Future of Broadband: Telemedia, Futurist Gerd Leonhard