The Future of Courts - Convicted by a Robot - REALLY?
- 1. ByTheCourt.org World Future Society THE FUTURE OF COURTS – Convicted by a Robot – REALLY? Herb Rubenstein Founder – [email protected] July 26– San Francisco
- 2. Concept for ByTheCourt.org • Create a 100% digital, global court and alterna>ve dispute resolu>on system • Maximize use of technology, including ar>ficial intelligence, to aid in decision making • Provide media>on services as well as “dispute avoidance services” • Apply local law, relax rules of civil procedure / evidence the way the American Arbitra>on Associa>on does; demys>fy and simplify legal process; expand access 2
- 3. CURRENT SITUATION • Court systems are clogged causing delays and expense; government sponsored court systems are out of the reach of people all over the world in civil cases • Long delays in the court system • No one has tapped ar>ficial intelligence and modern technology to allow for filing claims by cell phone, voice recogni>on, and geVng decisions very quickly • Court = building; future: Court = Globe 3
- 4. Court = Globe • Rules of Evidence – Throw us all you got • Rules of Civil Procedure – Make requests and provid informa>on • Use all available informa>on on the web to decide every case; show tracks of all informa>on searched via ar>ficial intelligence/cogni>ve compu>ng • Plus all informa>on given by lawyers • Every case has a mediator or judge or both; could have a jury • All decisions rendered via smart phone or video 4
- 5. Small Cases To Government to Government Disputes • VISA story with Dee Hock • Work with ar>ficial intelligence agent (Watson or other) to learn how to handle more and more types of cases over >me • Can even have juries and try criminal cases • ALL VOLUNTARY SYSTEM – so no plans to use this to convict people and throw them in jail • But, it could get there someday 5
- 6. Criminal Cases • Easier to get witnesses and evidence • Quicker, ogen two to three years’ delay in going to trial, incarcerated • Beier bonding systems, far greater use of collateral • Proba>on and parole – all electronic monitoring, cheaper, fairer, predic>ve analy>cs to help steer people away from proba>on revoca>on 6
- 7. Handling of Evidence • All evidence will be handled in the cloud and no chance of evidence being lost, contaminated, or tampered with • Rules of evidence are changed to eliminate discovery and eviden>ary disputes that are >me consuming and wasteful • All evidence preserved and to the extent the par>es allow, available for use in other cases 7
- 8. Improvements Over Current Court System • Reduce cost and delays, improve access • Minors, undocumented, anyone can easily par>cipate in system and receive jus>ce • No expenditures on real estate or transporta>on to and from court houses; no seVng of trial dates and geVng con>nued; fewer >me delaying tac>cs allowed • Asynchronous, 24x7 court system, easy filing of documents • Quick appeal with two levels of appeals 8
- 9. Expansions Over Time • Will create a “court score” like a credit score for all par>cipants that could have great economic value in this more transparent world • Will eventually peel off business from current court and proba>on/parole system to handle rou>ne maiers on line rather than through courts 9
- 10. Business Model (con’t) • Rapid resolu>on of disputes will increase the value of many businesses, improve the lives of many in the world • Can handle “class ac>on cases” easily with individuals filing their own claims electronically at very low cost • Possible early introduc>on of ByTheCourt in Cuba which will have the need for an expanded court system if it is going to do more business with the US or Estonia which is very advanced using virtual systems; Goal 190 Countries in 20 years 10
- 11. Why Now? • Convergence of technology, public availability of laws, computer assisted legal research, • Government courts, benefit delays, are not sustainable, and people are losing faith in them • Micro sales and low fees can generate huge revenues from a global enterprise • Once court system is built, there would be great barriers to entry, strong switching costs, we would able to embed our court system into businesses and organiza>ons, would have organic demand growth, low sales costs, large self-‐ service component, high loyalty • Backlog of 1,000,000 social security disability cases pending and backlog is growing every day 11
- 12. Ecosystem Strengths Analysis • A new futurist tool for predic>ng, naviga>ng and preparing for the future. • Not a trends analysis, or scenario planning approach, or three horizons, or foresight analysis, but includes aspects of each type of futurist tool • Five steps to the ESA – Ecosystem Strengths Analysis 12
- 13. Five Steps • STEP 1 -‐ Iden>fy the poten>al futuris>c poten>al occurrence by sector, key players, key drivers, economic analysis (cost savings or value enhancement), poli>cal analysis, technology capabili>es, environmental impacts, legal changes necessary, expert commentary on likelihood of new occurrence like www.techcast.org created by Bill Halal • Preiy common form of analysis -‐ PESTEL 13
- 14. Step 2 • Develop an STATIC Ecosystem Map of key players in the sector and weigh if/when they are/will be suppor>ve of the innova>on or new thing – Assess rela>ve strengths of key players – Look for >pping points that either bring in new players (UBER, AirBNB) or change the way current players posi>on themselves on the issue (Confederate Flag) – Chart the future course of possible >pping points 14
- 15. Step 3 • Redraw the ecosystem map for periods of one year, three years, five, ten, etc. going forward and assess how the ecosystem changes and how strong it is in favor or against a change (driverless cars – Military need in 1980, consumer device 2020) • Monitor the ecosystem evolu>on to help assess likelihood of event/innova>on coming to popularity 15
- 16. Step 4 • Be able to say, when X happens, this innova>on will become “mainstream” • Assess economic and poli>cal strength of each ecosystem element and see how it evolves with changes that propel the innova>on (renewable energy vs. coal and fossil fuels) • Be sure to do this interna>onally as well as na>onally or within a market 16
- 17. Step 5 • Discuss how to help the ecosystem winners and losers, our poten>al clients, at each step of the way. (Coal companies buy renewable companies or u>lity like Florida Power and buys coal plant just to shut it down and replace power genera>on with less pollu>ng ac>vi>es) • Goal: Avoid stranded assets, but up assets which will gain in value, build strengths to producing new good or service that ecosystem supports 17
- 18. Courts and The Ecosystem Strenths Analysis • Major players in the Court System – Lawyers, law firms, judges, court personnel, court builders, maintenance staff, proba>on officers, laws, rules of evidence and procedure – All dead set against Digital Court System now – People who use or are used by the Courts – have no power as ecosystem player – Delays and problems of our courts only hurt the people, not the other ecosystem elements in our legal system 18
- 19. Ecosystem Analysis & The Courts • No change in the current system possible • American Arbitra>on, Modria (ebay) dispute resolu>on system begin and flourish • Technology can cut the cost by 99% of all li>ga>on and improve “court generated delays” by 99% • Strong economic drivers for digital court system – needs early, big adopters 19
- 20. Interna>onally • US unlikely candidate for early adop>on – Churchill quote • Countries that want to rid judicial system of bribery, delays, no access to jus>ce will be early adopters • Business will want to cut the cost of resolving disputes (ebay) • People will gain power and vote with their pocketbooks (Amer Arbitra>on) 20
- 21. Unstoppable Ecosystem Elements • 99% rule – do it 99% beier, cheaper, quicker you eventually win – UBER, AirBNB, Cellphones, Online Airplane Tickets • But only if ecosystem elements have the power, resources, and leadership to make the change • Ecosystem Strengths Analysis suggests in this situa>on – 100% digital courts to rise in third world and spread, eventually to US 21
- 22. Conclusion • We es>mate one year and X dollars to build prototype, pilot test, and be ready to accept cases globally; We could start media>ons sooner, but want to have a major roll out when we start and be able to protect our intellectual property • We can begin to screen and cer>fy “judges,” mediators and part >me personnel to supervise each case, provide customer service • We can build a global network as the founder, Herb Rubenstein, teaches at the Global Energy Management Program of UC Denver • We can find local country partners and ways to sell our big data without compromising the privacy and security of our court system • We will not seek adver>sing revenue in our business model, but will be open to many sources of revenue where we create value 22
- 23. Ecosystem System Suppor>ve of 100% Digital Courts • The hundreds of thousands of judges and mediators who will be hired by digital court system • The technology companies that will be the backbone (Verizon, CISCO, IBM, etc.) • People who want faster, cheaper dispute resolu>on and jus>ce (Think of El Chapo – embed him with a computer chip and you can track him leaving the prison!) 23
- 24. Ecosystem Supporters (Con’t) • Governments who want to end bribery in their court systems (very few, actually) • Companies who want fair and resolu>on of interna>onal disputes • Universi>es to train the judges and mediators in every country and recer>fy them • Human Resource Companies like PriceWaterHouse Coopers who might employ the hundreds of thousands of judges and mediators 24
- 25. Conclusion • Ideas maier, but not as much as the strength of ecosystems • Ecosystems drive what changes or does not change • The Futurist Profession should pay more aien>on to ecosystem strength analysis -‐ “ESA” • Forthcoming white papers and more detailed explana>on of the ESA. • Ques>ons and Comments 25
- 26. Contact informa>on • Herb Rubenstein • [email protected] • 303.910.7961 • 347.916.1317 • Member DC, MD and VA Bar Associa>ons; New York City Bar Associa>on • Office: 255 Dean Street, Unit 1, Brooklyn, NY 11217 • Skype -‐ herbrubensteinr 26