Downloaded 37 times
![Marketisation and student consumers
Rise of inter/national competition, sometimes brings a sense of loss that
requires debate (e.g in the UK see the Campaign for a Public University
and the Council for the Defence of British Universities)
More information (e.g. Key Information Set [KIS] in UK, MyUniversity
in Australia) and choice… but who is equipped to choose? And what
about more complex outcomes such as competencies or values?
Sector responses; external re-grouping, internal reconfiguring,
strategic partnerships, shared services, specialisation, spin-offs,
internationalisation, inter-disciplinary teams, entrepreneurship,
incubators, proving impact, ‘squeezed middle’ institutions in the UK
Will HE come out stronger and more competitive? Nobody knows yet…](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/121128-thefuturerevolutioninhighereducationv01-121129040201-phpapp01/75/The-future-r-evolution-in-higher-education-37-2048.jpg)
The future (r)evolution in higher education?
The document discusses the future of higher education, highlighting shifts in demographics, increased global competition, and the financial challenges facing institutions. It notes the importance of adapting to new learning models and technologies, such as blended learning and MOOCs, to meet the needs of a diverse student population. The piece emphasizes the need for a clear strategy and investment in education to drive equity and social engagement amid changing funding landscapes.
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The future (r)evolution in higher education?
- 1. The future (r)evolutionof HE? 28th Nov 2012 Louis Coiffait, Head of Research @LouisMMCoiffait The Pearson Think Tank thepearsonthinktank.com
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- 3. 1. WHO ? More s tudent More o s, lder, w from and in e orking mergin and pa g natio rt time n studen s ts 2. WHERE? Informally, outside classes, wherever suits More courses with multiple global locations 3. HOW? Blended, onl Socially w ine and personali ith others sed servi , virtually ces or in pers on ntry dt heir cou 4. W H Y? for them an ld - values omic benefit, better w or Econ singly f or a ea But incr
- 4.
- 5. Pearson More than 45kstaff in over 70 countries helping over 100m learners
- 6. The world’s leadinglearning company?
- 7. Change at thetop Dame Marjorie Scardino John Fallon
- 8. The Pearson ThinkTank Independent education think tank focused on research into education access and quality -
- 9. A shifting globalcontext 2
- 10. Recent sustained growthin HE learners In 36 countries covered by OECD data there are more than twice as many 25-34 year olds (81m) with degrees than 55-64 year olds (39m) Number of 55-64 year-olds Number of 25-34 year-olds 39m 81m Sources: Andreas Schleicher (2012) What does the future hold for higher education?, OECD http://goo.gl/sEpa1 based on data from Education at a glance (2012) OECD, http://goo.gl/u9LbT
- 11. Increasingly studying in,not just coming from emerging nations The % share of graduates by nationality is shifting from West to East % share of 55-64 year-olds % share of 25-34 year-olds Sources: Andreas Schleicher (2012) What does the future hold for higher education?, OECD http://goo.gl/sEpa1 based on data from Education at a glance (2012) OECD, http://goo.gl/u9LbT
- 12. Future 18-22 year-oldpopulation by 2020 Source: UN Population Division, Oxford Economics (2011)
- 13. Growth in internationallymobile learners This growing pie represents a huge opportunity - to help educate the ‘next billion’ - to build institutional capacity - to develop ‘world class’ institutions But it’s not the answer to all HE’s prayers… Sources: Altbach et al (2009) Trends in Global Higher Education: Tracking an Academic Revolution, UNESCO http://goo.gl/Khw2s; Opening Doors – International mobility (2012) Institute of International Education (IIE) http://goo.gl/ohi19; The shape of things to come (2012) British Council http://goo.gl/ibeJq, Education at a glance (2012) OECD, http://goo.gl/u9LbT
- 14. Future 18-22 year-oldpopulation over time Huge falls for China, South Korea, Russia and Germany Steady levels for the USA and Brazil Steady growth for India Source: UN Population Division, Oxford Economics (2011)
- 15. Asia’s changing populationpyramid 1990 2010 Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat
- 16. Changing market share(%) of foreign HE students enrolled, by destination, 2000-2010 Source: Schleicher and OECD EAG (2012) ibid. Other
- 17. Particularly strong growthin vocational learner numbers in emerging countries Different types of higher education around the world… Source: The Education Advantage (2012) The Research Base http://goo.gl/o7AeS based on US Census Bureau, World Bank and UNESCO data
- 18. Costs and graduationrates over time US Cost per student Graduate supply Source: Schleicher and OECD EAG (2012) ibid.
- 19. Costs and graduationrates over time Source: Schleicher and OECD EAG (2012) ibid.
- 20. Costs and graduationrates over time Source: Schleicher and OECD EAG (2012) ibid.
- 21. Costs and graduationrates over time Source: Schleicher and OECD EAG (2012) ibid.
- 22. Costs and graduationrates over time Source: Schleicher and OECD EAG (2012) ibid.
- 23. Costs and graduationrates over time Source: Schleicher and OECD EAG (2012) ibid.
- 24. Costs and graduationrates over time Source: Schleicher and OECD EAG (2012) ibid.
- 25. Costs and graduationrates over time Source: Schleicher and OECD EAG (2012) ibid.
- 26. Costs and graduationrates over time Source: Schleicher and OECD EAG (2012) ibid.
- 27. Costs and graduationrates over time Source: Schleicher and OECD EAG (2012) ibid.
- 28. Costs and graduationrates over time Source: Schleicher and OECD EAG (2012) ibid.
- 29. Costs and graduationrates over time US Denmark United Kingdom Australia New Zealand Finland Iceland Poland Source: Schleicher and OECD EAG (2012) ibid.
- 30. US costs +graduation rates over time Natural graduation rate limits reached? 40%? 50%? 60%? US Costs to keep on rising? Source: Schleicher and OECD EAG (2012) ibid.
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- 32. Funding in fluxin many nations HE serves many missions (and masters) Is it losing out to other priorities (e.g. schools, health) in a tough economic context? US deficit, UK austerity, Australia mineral wealth already spent(?) When US HE leaders had to select from 14 ‘key challenges’, 4 money issues topped the list; • Potential cuts in federal student aid 83% • Budget shortfalls 70% • Cuts in state spending 67% • Rising tuition fees / affordability 66% Source: Jaschik and Lederman (2012) Survey of College & University Presidents, Inside Higher Ed http://goo.gl/qZuuc
- 33. Public funding switchingto private sources Rising demand and restraints on public resources Evidence of private (individual benefit) Increasing willingness / ability to pay Trend in the USA and (sharply) in the UK Some Indonesian institutions recently quadrupled their fee income In Vietnam many institutions now get <40% of their income from fees Some institutions becoming more entrepreneurial, new funding models Source: Asian Development Bank, Higher Education Across Asia: An Overview of Issues and Strategies, Asian Development Bank, November 2011, p.18. http://goo.gl/1isug
- 34. Growth of privateproviders UK government looking to ‘level the playing field’ for new entrants, reforming quality assurance measures and Degree Awarding Powers, hoping to drive efficiency in the market In Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Korea, and the Philippines, private universities now enrol the majority of students Source: Asian Development Bank, Higher Education Across Asia: An Overview of Issues and Strategies, Asian Development Bank, November 2011, p.19. http://goo.gl/1isug
- 35. The English fundingexperiment (/gamble?) All the dice thrown at once, especially for funding Most direct funding gone, tripled tuition fees 1998 <£1k 2004 <£3k 2012 <£9k Average 2013/14 fee £8,507 £7,898 with support (good luck making sense of all that…) Some say average UK undergraduate debt now highest in the world Closer to what international students pay Sources: Tuition fee hike 'will make English degrees most expensive in the world‘ (2011) Telegraph http://goo.gl/Gpv3f
- 36. Impact of higherfees in England No conclusive evidence putting applicants off, lower than predicted impact on overall numbers (-10%) and disadvantaged learners (-1%) But apparently bigger impact on mature learners (e.g. –12% for 19-25 year olds) and part-time learners – questions ability of ageing economy to ‘re-skill’? Some studies unclear if it will save the Treasury much, if anything in the long run Too early to judge… Sources: Thompson J. and Bekhradnia B. (2012) The cost of the government’s reforms of the financing of higher education, Higher Education Policy Institute (HEPI) Report 58, Oxford p.11 http://goo.gl/30L2v; Thompson J. and Bekhradnia B. (2012) The impact on demand in 2012 of the Government’s reforms of HE, Higher Education Policy Institute (HEPI) Report 59, Oxford http://goo.gl/7204F
- 37. Marketisation and studentconsumers Rise of inter/national competition, sometimes brings a sense of loss that requires debate (e.g in the UK see the Campaign for a Public University and the Council for the Defence of British Universities) More information (e.g. Key Information Set [KIS] in UK, MyUniversity in Australia) and choice… but who is equipped to choose? And what about more complex outcomes such as competencies or values? Sector responses; external re-grouping, internal reconfiguring, strategic partnerships, shared services, specialisation, spin-offs, internationalisation, inter-disciplinary teams, entrepreneurship, incubators, proving impact, ‘squeezed middle’ institutions in the UK Will HE come out stronger and more competitive? Nobody knows yet…
- 38. HE driving equity,fairness and social mobility Balancing access and equity… Governments try to make it a core objective for institutions (e.g. Australia and UK) but more could be done (both central funding and institutional prioritising) New UK access agreements (with fines), postgrads the ‘next’ frontier Changes to admissions policies e.g. China moving away from single exam rounds, (contested) use of contextual data in the UK Sources: Asian Development Bank, Higher Education Across Asia: An Overview of Issues and Strategies, Asian Development Bank, November 2011, pp.26-27. http://goo.gl/1isug , Postgraduate education (2012) Higher Education Commission http://goo.gl/Mr8Pl
- 39. Diverse, strategic networksof partners: international, national, regional and local Third mission – community and social engagement Partner schools and colleges Employers Suppliers Strategic partners – first Google or Apple course/university? Voluntary orgs / charities – first Amnesty Intl. or Oxfam course/uni? More institutional collaboration (or competition)?
- 40. Educating the ‘whole’learner Global growth of more holistic approaches (beyond just knowledge); skills, employability, attributes, 21st Century skills, critical thinking, problem solving, communication, team work, E.Q., digital skills… But also beyond just competencies; (social) innovation, (social) enterprise, sustainability, global citizenship, extra-curricular activities, volunteering, service-learning, creativity etc… teaching values? Young people increasingly expect learning that creates ‘flourishing’ communities, beyond employment or average salaries But challenging with low growth and high graduate unemployment Sources: Ananiadou, K. and M. Claro, 21st Century Skills and Competences for New Millennium Learners in OECD Countries, OECD Education Working Papers, No. 41, OECD Publishing, 2009, p.5. http://goo.gl/vLFTF , FutureTrack (2012) HECSU http://goo.gl/owidY
- 41. Is technology partof the answer… The future looks pretty bright and exciting, here’s a starter for 10: 1. MOOCs, democratising revolution or marketing for known brands? 2. Blended learning offering seamless face-to-face/online experiences 3. Tablet and mobile pedagogy as developing areas of practice 4. A flourishing learning applications (apps) market of proven impact 5. Social learning more common with teaching and learning in teams 6. Virtual learning simulations bringing ever-more realistic activities 7. Game-based learning that is engaging, social and technical 8. Gesture-based learning that is intuitive and interactive 9. The internet of things with learning data gathered all around us 10.Smarter data use: instant, open, actionable and invisible
- 42. Is technology partof the answer… …or are we just heading into another bubble? Source: GSV Advisors, American Revolution 2.0, p.311 http://goo.gl/1ZdOq
- 43. Winning the argumentabout value(s) Coherent national vision needed for whole sector, in all its diversity Persuade government of value over other priorities (budgets, elections) Persuade the public of the benefits of HE (‘consumers’, voters) Persuade employers and other partners to engage Reshape itself to respond and lead A new narrative for HE: the long-term engine of growth, powerful in its diversity and dynamism, key to improving our future society (e.g. non-financial benefits, wellbeing, sustainability and above all values) A revolution is required (especially in equity, technology and social engagement)… but funding constraints and a lack of coherent strategy risks making evolution more likely
- 44. HE pays –for the individual and for society Source: Schleicher (2012) ibid., public cost and benefits of higher education for a man obtaining tertiary education (2008 or latest available year) in USD equivalent based on data from Education at a glance (2012) OECD, http://goo.gl/u9LbT
- 45. 2009 public spendper student as % of per capita GDP Sources: The Learning Curve (2012) Pearson / Economist http://goo.gl/zFcRP - main data source UNESCO Institute for Statistics (UIS)
- 46. One of ourprojects 4
- 47. Blue Skies –new thinking about the future of HE Platform for debate: short, original articles by global experts A5 book accompanied by http://pearsonblueskies.com Editions: UK (2011, 2012), Spanish (2011), Asia-Pacific (2012) so far… 60+ articles and counting, all content available for free Willetts, 2011 launch Free A5 books available for each edition Visit the site for PDFs, videos and to share your views Willetts, 2012 launch
- 48. Access for all:new evidence on young people and the costs of HE Original research by The Strategic Society Supported by the Pearson Think Tank and Universities UK Exploring the impact of tuition fees on applications, due Spring 2013 http://thepearsonthinktank.com/research/value-for-money-in-higher-education/
- 49. Other research projectsby the Pearson Think Tank 3) Future Universities 4) Enterprise & Partnership with think tank Demos entrepreneurship http://thepearsonthinktank.com education /research/future-universities/ 5) Open Education Data 6) Careers 2020 7) Academies Commission • • With more to follow… • - Are these the right topics? • ○ - What issues matter to you?
- 50.
Editor's Notes
- #3 If nothing else, remember this picture, it tells you the three key things you need to know about the future of higher education. With one exception, two of the three men should be women.
- #12 Note the USA, China and the UK
- #19 Cost rise, graduation rate plateaus
- #48 Outputs
- #49 Outputs
- #50 Outputs