The #NoEstimates Movement - Ryan Ripley

# DERBYCITYAGILE@ RYANRIPLEY
© 2018 Ryan Ripley & Company
The #NoEstimates Movement

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#DERBYCITYAGILE

#NoEstimates

We are uncovering better ways of developing
software by doing it and helping others do it.
Through this work we have come to value:
Individuals and interactions over processes and tools
Working software over comprehensive documentation
Customer collaboration over contract negotiation
Responding to change over following a plan
That is, while there is value in the items on
the right, we value the items on the left more.

Stacey Diagram
• Simple: Everything is known
• Complicated: More is known
than unknown
• Complex: More is unknown
than know
• Chaotic: Very little is known

EXPERIMENTATION

SAFETY

CONTINUOUS
LEARNING

DELIVERY

WHAT
IS
AN
ESTIMATE
?

@ryanripley #NoEstimates
Dictionary.com - an approximate judgment or calculation, as of the value, amount,
time, size, or weight of something.
Merriam-Webster - a : to judge tentatively or approximately the value, worth, or
significance of b : to determine roughly the size, extent, or nature of c : to produce a
statement of the approximate cost of
The American Heritage Dictionary – 1. A tentative evaluation or rough calculation.
2. A preliminary calculation of the cost of a project. 3. A judgement based upon one’s
impressions; opinion.
Predicting the Unpredictable by Johanna Rothman – Literally, “guess.” How long or
how much you think the project will take for date and/or cost.
Software Estimation by Steve McConnell – A good estimate is an estimate that
provides a clear enough view of the project reality to allow the project leadership to
make good decisions about how to control the project and hit its targets.

EFFORT/COST/DURATION
OF THE WORK
•Domain Knowledge
•Programming Experience
ACCIDENTAL
COMPLICATION
•Code Complexity
•Design Decisions
•Team Stability
•Multitasking
•Dependencies
•Technical Debt
•Legacy Code
•Deployment Pipeline
•Size of Your Stories
•Clarity of Work
•Quality of Requirements
•Lack of Priorities
•WIP Limits Too High
•Management Discipline
•Technology / Platform Changes
•Team Collaboration
•Craftsmanship
ESSENTIAL
COMPLICATION
•Inherent Difficulty of the Work
•Natural Disasters
•Unforeseen Occurrences
ESTIMATE = ++

ESTIMATE = “THE WORK” + “BUFFER”

DO
ESTIMATES
ADD
VALUE
?

MAGIC NUMBERS
“MULTIPLY BY 2 AND ADD 2 WEEKS”
80% CONFIDENCE
INTERVAL http://www.businessinsider.com/nate-silver-
hillary-clinton-donald-trump-2016-6
1) MAKE YOUR ESTIMATES 2) ADD ONE 3) TAKE THE NEXT UNIT
PAD THE NUMBERS BY 20% (WHY NOT 40%?)
EXCEL GYMNASTICS

“IN 1986, PROFS. S.D. CONTE, H.E.
DUNSMORE, AND V.Y. SHEN
PROPOSED THAT A GOOD
ESTIMATION APPROACH SHOULD
PROVIDE ESTIMATES THAT ARE
WITHIN 25% OF THE ACTUAL
RESULTS 75% OF THE TIME.”
SOURCE: Software Estimation by Steve McConnell

“OF THE LARGE SYSTEMS THAT ARE
COMPLETED, 66% EXPERIENCE
SCHEDULE DELAYS AND COST
OVERRUN.”
SOURCE: Project Management Tools and Software Failures and Successes by Capers Jones – Journal of Defense Software Engineering

80% of Projects Are Late or Failed
**Cost and/or duration estimates not met.
SOURCE: Software Estimation by Steve McConnell
Overall, a compelling number of
studies have found results in line
with the results reported by The
Standish Group and Jones, that
about one quarter of all projects
are delivered on time; about one
quarter are cancelled; and about
half are delivered late, over
budget, or both.

“17% OF LARGE IT PROJECTS GO SO
BADLY THAT THEY CAN THREATEN
THE VERY EXISTENCE OF THE
COMPANY.”
SOURCE: McKinsey & Company with University of Oxford – Study on large scale IT projects - 2012

WHY
DO WE
NEED
ESTIMATES
?

DECISIONS

WHAT
IS
#NOESTIMATES
?

@WoodyZuill @Neil_Killick@Duarte_Vasco

#NOESTIMATES IS A HASHTAG FOR
THE TOPIC OF EXPLORING
ALTERNATIVES TO ESTIMATES FOR
MAKING DECISIONS IN SOFTWARE
DEVELOPMENT. THAT IS, WAYS TO
MAKE DECISIONS WITH
“NO ESTIMATES”

THIS IS THE MAIN PREMISE BEHIND
#NOESTIMATES: ESTIMATES DO NOT
DIRECTLY ADD VALUE TO YOUR
PROCESS, SO WE WANT TO FIND WAYS
TO REDUCE THE ESTIMATION PROCESS
OR EVEN STOP IT WHERE POSSIBLE

#NOESTIMATES ISN’T ABOUT
DITCHING ESTIMATES. IT IS
ABOUT IMPROVING THE WAY
WE WORK SUCH THAT
ESTIMATES BECOME
REDUNDANT

WHY
DO WE
NEED
ESTIMATES
? # DERBYCITYAGILE@ RYANRIPLEY

“Bill Hanlon looked at 60-ish projects that used
relative estimates. He looked at how accurate
their predictions were as compared to the
actuals. Then he reset all estimates to 1 and
recomputed their velocities, made accordant
projections and compared those to actuals. He
found about a 3% variance in predictive
accuracy between full data and just using 1.
SOURCE: Planning with Any Hope of Accuracy by Arlo Belshee - http://arlobelshee.com/planning-with-any-hope-of-accuracy/

WHY
DO WE
NEED
ESTIMATES
?
Using 1 – 3 – 5 Planning Poker Cards
Source: Vasco Duarte - #NoEstimates Keynote

WHY
DO WE
NEED
ESTIMATES
?
Using 1 – 2 - 3 Planning Poker Cards

WHY
DO WE
NEED
ESTIMATES
?
All stories labeled with a “1”

NEXT STEPS:
1. IF YOU ESTIMATE IN HOURS MOVE TO SP’s
2. DON’T ESTIMATE TASKS
3. LIMIT THE SIZE OF STORIES
4. IF YOU USE SP’s, ONLY USE 1,3, and 5
5. BUILD CUMULATIVE FLOW DIAGRAMS
6. EVERY STORY CAN BE A 1
7. NEGOTIATE DECISIONS, NOT ESTIMATES

Recommended Resources:
Blogs:
• Woody Zuill - http://zuill.us/WoodyZuill/
• Neil Killick – http://neilkillick.wordpress.com/
• Vasco Duarte - http://oikosofy.com/news/
YouTube Videos:
• Alan Holub’s #NoEstimates Keynote - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QVBlnCTu9Ms
• Woody Zuill’s #NoEstimates: Lets Explore the Possibilities -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5oMk2oRJNbc
Books:
• Vasco Duarte’s #NoEstimates Book - http://noestimatesbook.com/
• Johanna Rothman’s Predicting the Unpredictable - http://amzn.to/2mG2qXd
Podcasts:
• Agile for Humans Episode 52 “Software Estimation with Steve McConnell” - http://ryanripley.com/afh-052-software-
estimation-with-steve-mcconnell-podcast/
• Agile for Humans Episode 50 “Agile Ideas with Neil Killick” - http://ryanripley.com/afh-050-agile-ideas-with-neil-killick-
podcast/
• Agile for Humans Episode 45 “System Thinking and #NoEstimates with Chris Chapman” - http://ryanripley.com/afh-
045-system-thinking-and-noestimates-with-chris-chapman-podcast/
• Agile for Humans Episode 20 “#NoEstimates with Vasco Duarte” - http://ryanripley.com/noestimates-with-vasco-
duarte/

AUGUST 16-17, 2018 – Louisville, KY Ryan Ripley, PST
KEP Training - https://pal-e.eventbrite.com/

THANK
YOU!
LET’S KEEP THE CONVERSATION GOING:
HTTP://RYANRIPLEY.COM
RYAN@RYANRIPLEY.COM
@RYANRIPLEY
PODCAST

The #NoEstimates Movement - Ryan Ripley

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