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The Public Opinion Landscape
The document provides an overview of public perceptions and opinions on key issues in the United States at the end of 2015. It summarizes economic indicators over the past year and shows that while the unemployment rate declined, consumer confidence decreased. Most Americans viewed 2015 as an average year for the country. Perceptions of the threat of terrorism increased significantly compared to the previous year while economic issues were seen as less important. Approval ratings for Obama and Congress remained low.
The Public Opinion Landscape
- 1. J a nu a r y 1 2 , 2 0 1 6 The Public’s Take – The State of the Union
- 2. PAGE 2 TABLE OF CO NTENTS 1 . A l o o k b a c k a t 2 0 1 5 … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … 2 . P e r c e p t i o n s o f E c o n o m i c C o n d i t i o n s / V i e w s o f t h e F u t u r e … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … 3 . P e r c e p t i o n s o f O b a m a & C o n g r e s s … … … … … … … … … . . 4 . P e r c e p t i o n s o f P o l i c y I s s u e s M o v i n g F o r w a r d … … … … . SLI DE 3 8 1 2 1 9
- 3. PAGE 3The Public’sTake: The State of the Union | January 20, 2015 Y E A R I N R E V I E W
- 4. PAGE 4 Indicator Beginning of2015 (January 2015) End of 2015 (Nov/Dec 2015) Change Unemployment Rate 5.7% 5.0% -0.7% Inflation Rate -0.1% 0.5% +0.6% Stock Market (DJIA) 17,832 17,425 -407 Consumer Confidence Index 103.8 96.5 -7.3 U.S. Interest Rates .25% .50% +.25% Gallon of gas* $2.13 $2.00 -$0.13 Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Conference Board,, www.tradingeconomics.com/, AAA (FuelGaugeReport.AAA.com THE YEAR I N REVI EW : ECO NO M I C I NDI CATO RS *The national average price of gas in 2015 was $2.40 per gallon, which was the second cheapest annual average of the past ten years. Only 2009 was lower during that time. This year’s annual average was about 94 cents per gallon less than 2014.
- 5. PAGE 5 Compared withother years, do you think that 2015 was one of the best years for the United States, above average, about average, below average, or one of the worst years for the United States? One of the best Above average About average Below average One of the worst 1% 12% (-1) 33% 36% (+2) 18% Source: NBC/WSJ survey / *Pew Research Center Poll / **CBS News/NYT Poll End of 2015Beginning of 2015 THE YEAR I N REVI EW : PERCEPTI O NS O F THE ECO NO M Y 59% 70% 17% 22% 46% 53% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Country on Wrong Track Economy Will Get Worse* Economy is Bad**
- 6. End of 2015Beginningof 2015 PAGE 6 THE YEAR I N REVI EW : PERCEPTI O NS O F O BAM A Source: NBC/WSJ survey, *CBS/NY Times Poll 46% 43% 47% 45% 37% 37% 35% 40% 45% 50% Overall Job Approval Rating Job Approval on the Economy* Job Approval on Foreign Policy
- 7. PAGE 7 G ROW I NG SHARE CI TE TERRO RI SM AS THE M O ST I M PO RTANT PRO BLEM FACI NG THE U. S. Dec 2014 Dec 2015 Change Terrorism 1% 18% +17 Economy (general) 14% 9% -5 Defense/National security 2% 8% +6 Immigration 12% 7% -5 Unemployment 10% 7% -3 ISIS/War in Iraq/War in Syria 2% 7% +5 Dissatisfaction with government, Obama 10% 6% -4 Gun control/too many guns/mass shootings 1% 5% +4 Political gridlock/division 8% 5% -3 NET: Foreign / International 9% 32% +23 NET: Terrorism / ISIS / National Security 4% 29% +25 NET: Economic issues 34% 23% -11 Source: Pew Research Center Poll, December 8-13, 2015 Most important problem facing nation …
- 8. P E RC E P T I O N S O F E C O N O M I C C O N D I T I O N S / V I E W S O F T H E F U T U R E PAGE 8
- 9. PAGE 9 NUM BERO F AM ERI CANS W HO VI EW CO UNTRY O N THE W RO NG TRACK I S HI G HEST SI NCE 2012 The percentage of Americans saying the nation is heading in the right direction hasn’t topped 50% in about a decade. Source: HuffPost Pollster.com Aggregate Data, as of January 8, 2016 RIGHT DIRECTION 25.0% WRONG TRACK 65.3%
- 10. PAGE 10Source: NBCNews/Wall Street Journal Survey, December 6-9, 2015 LI TTLE CHANG E I N EXPECTATI O N FO R THE ECO NO M Y I N THE CO M I NG YEAR During the next 12 months, do you think that the nation’s economy will get better, get worse, or stay about the same? Same Worse Better 22% 38% 38% 46% 42% 41% 33% 37% 29% 29% 21% 40% 35% 45% 32% 27% 26% 27% 31% 29% 25% 24% 22% 20% 30% 22% 22% 22% 23% 15% 29% 30% 32% 23% 20% 9% 18% 24% 25% 24% 17% 21% 24% 24% 51% 37% 30% 29% 33% 36% 43% 46% 41% 39% 45% 35% 41% 34% 49% 48% 48% 48% 51% 48% 51% 50% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Oct 2006 Oct 2008 Apr 2009 June 2009 Oct 2009 Mar 2010 June 2010 Nov 2010 Feb 2011 June 2011 Oct 2011 Mar 2012 June 2012 Oct 2012 June 2013 Sept 2013 Mar 2014 June 2014 Dec 2014 Mar 2015 July 2015 Dec 2015 Note: “Don’t know/Refused” results are not shown.
- 11. PAGE 11 O PTIM I SM ABO UT THE ECO NO M Y I S FLEETI NG AS W E START THE NEW YEAR Would you say you feel optimistic or pessimistic about the U.S. economy right now? Source: Fox News Poll, January 4-7, 2016 Optimistic 49% Pessimistic 49% Don’t know 2% Compared to January 2015 Optimistic 58% Pessimistic 39%
- 12. P E RC E P T I O N S O F O B A M A & C O N G R E S S PAGE 12
- 13. PAGE 13 O BAMA’S APPRO VAL RATI NG APPEARS STEADY in t he M I D- TO UPPER 40s Term 52-Week High 51% Nov 13-15, 2015 52-Week Low 42% Dec 16-18, 2015 All-Time High 69% Jan 22-24, 2009 All-Time Low 38% Sep 3-5, 2014 Term Avg to Date 47% Jan 20, 2009 – Jan 5, 2016 Current Quarter Avg to Date 47% Oct 20, 2014 – Jan 5, 2016 Last Quarter Avg 46.1% Jul 20 – Oct 19, 2015 Current Year Avg to Date 46% Jan 20, 2015 – Jan 5, 2016 Last Year Avg 42.8% Jan 20, 2014 – Jan 19, 2015 47% 49% Approve Disapprove Barack Obama's Current Job Approval Source: Gallup Poll
- 14. PAGE 14 O VERALLO BAM A’s APPRO VAL HI G HER THAN HI S PREDECECESSO R AT START O F FI NAL YEAR I N O FFI CE 66% 63% 49% 47% 32% Eisenhower (1960) Clinton (2000) Reagan (1988) Obama (2016) G.W. Bush (2008) Job Approval Ratings for Prior Presidents in January of Final Year of 2nd Term Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data Weekly Approval Rating Average January 4– 10, 2016
- 15. PAGE 15 45% 44%43% 37% 37% 40% 47% 51% 56% 57% Global Climate Change Race Relations The economy Immigration Policy Threat of Terrorism Approve Disapprove Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing on the following issues? O BAM A PO O RLY RATED O N M O ST I SSUES Source: Pew Research Center Poll, December 8-13, 2015
- 16. PAGE 16 SI NCE2012, M O RE SEE O BAM A AS NO T TO UG H ENO UG H O N FO REI G N PO LI CY 2% 2% 2% 5% 3% 5% 2% 38% 47% 41% 51% 54% 55% 58% 51% 41% 42% 37% 36% 37% 34% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Jun-09 Apr-10 Sep-12 Nov-13 Aug-14 Jan-15 Dec-15 Too tough Not tough enough About right Source: Pew Research Poll, December 8-13, 2015 Is Obama _________ when it comes to foreign policy and national security? Note: “Don’t know/Refused” results are not shown.
- 17. PAGE 17 CO NGRESS ENDS 2015 W I TH 13% JO B APPRO VAL; AVERAG ES M EAG ER 16% I N 2015 Source: Gallup Poll BY PARTY IDENTIFICATION DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS 17% 15% Aggregated Gallup Polls
- 18. PAGE 18 AM ERICANS ARE DI SSATI SFI ED O R ANG RY ABO UT THE WAY THI NG S ARE G O I NG I N WASHI NG TO N Which comes closest to your feelings about the way things are going in Washington – enthusiastic, satisfied but not enthusiastic, dissatisfied but not angry, or angry? Source: CBS News / NY Times Poll, December 4-8, 2015 31% 53% 12% 1% Angry Dissatisfied but not angry Satisfied but not enthusiastic Enthusiastic
- 19. P E RC E P T I O N S O F P O L I C Y I S S U E S M O V I N G F O R W A R D PAGE 19
- 20. PAGE 20 PUBLI C’SI SSUE PRI O RI TI ES REFLECTS A NATI O N THAT FEELS LESS SECURE Source: NBC/WSJ Survey, December 6-9, 2015 Let me list some issues that have been proposed for the federal government to address. Please tell me which ONE OR TWO of these items you think should be the top priority for the federal government? National security has become the top issue on the public’s mind for the federal government to address, overtaking jobs and the economy.
- 21. I N OBAM A’S FI NAL YEAR, A M AJO RI TY O F AM ERI CANS THI NK HI S PO LI CY PRO PO SALS W I LL M O VE CO UNTRY I N W RO NG DI RECTI O N Source: CNN/ORC Poll, January 5-6, 2016 Do you think the policies being proposed by Barack Obama will move the country in the right direction or the wrong direction? PAGE 21 31% 35% 46% 49% 42% 47% 54% 49% 52% 55% 67% 63% 52% 49% 55% 52% 43% 46% 45% 42% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Wrong direction Right direction Note: “Unsure” results are not shown.
- 22. G O PFAVO RED O N TERRO RI SM , G UN CO NTRO L; DEM O CRATS LEAD O N CLI M ATE CHANG E Source: Pew Research Center Poll, December 8-13, 2015 Which party could do a better job … PAGE 22 53% 46% 40% 37% 37% 34% 30% 32% 42% 42% 43% 46% Democratic Party Republican Party Note: “Both equally,” “Neither,” and “Don’t know/Refused” results are not shown. Environment Climate change Immigration Economy Gun control Terrorist threat D+23 D+14 R+2 R+5 R+6 R+12
- 23. 1025 F StreetNW,9thFloor Washington, DC 20004 121 East 24thStreet,10th Floor New York, NY 10010 202.337.0808 | GPG.COM GPG The Glover Park Group is a leading strategic communications and government affairs firm. GPG offers an integrated and complementary suite of services to plan, build and execute all manner of communications tactics, campaigns and programs. Our in-house research team is a data- and insight-driven outfit. We employ cutting-edge research methodologies, from digital analytics to quantitative and qualitative opinion research, to help our clients understand where the conversation begins and, more importantly, how we can influence it. On top of a full complement of quantitative and qualitative public opinion research services, we also routinely put together a variety of presentations from the most recent national surveys. For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG contact: Jason Boxt ([email protected])