The Road To Change: Electric Vehicles Power the Future for Everyone
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Electric vehicles (EVs) are posited to revolutionize the transportation and electric power industries by offering greater efficiency and fewer complexities compared to internal combustion engines. However, significant challenges remain, particularly regarding battery technology, which impacts their widespread adoption due to cost, energy density, and recharge time. The conclusion highlights that while EVs will increase demand on the power grid, innovations in battery technology are expected to address these issues within the next few years.
The Road To Change: Electric Vehicles Power the Future for Everyone
- 1. EVs will Change the Electric Power and Transportation Industries The secret of business is to know something that nobody else knows. – Aristotle Onassis Michael Gorton BS, MS, JD CEO Principal Solar, Inc. [email protected] Mark Victor Hansen Co-creator of Chicken Soup for the Soul, Solar & Electric Car Advocate
- 2. Abstract Electric vehicles will soon become a viable alternative to the internal combustion engine and will change the transportation and electric power industries. Michael Gorton BS, MS, JD CEO Principal Solar, Inc. [email protected] Mark Victor Hansen Co-creator of Chicken Soup for the Soul, Solar & Electric Car Advocate
- 3. If you have two equally likely solutions to a problem, choose the simplest. – Occam’s Razor
- 4. Comparative Analysis Internal Combustion Engine Starter Electronics Spark Fuel tank Carburetor Intake Valves Piston Rods Battery Cam Shaft Crank Shaft Out take valves Heat shielding Cooling system Lubrication systems Exhaust System Transmission Differential Hundreds of moving parts Fact: Motor vehicles are the #1 contributor to air pollution
- 5. Comparative Analysis Electric Motor Faraday’s Law 1 moving part virtually no maintenance Extremely high torque High efficiency Lower operations cost Regeneration longer lasting brakes
- 6. EV Convenience Have you ever: • Filled your tank in the snow or rain at night? • Waited for an oil change? • Sprayed gasoline on your shoes on the way to a meeting? • Cleaned oil, transmission fluid or antifreeze off the garage floor?
- 7. Fundamentals Gallon = 36.6 kWh Average American Home 30 kWh / Day 100 HP-h = 74.6 kWh
- 8. Comparative Analysis Gasoline – C8H18 2 C8H18 + 25 O2 → 16 CO2 + 18 H2O 36.6 KWh per gallon Average US home = 940 KWh per month One gallon runs home for about a day! One gallon takes average car 25 miles Conclusion: 1. Gasoline is extremely efficient 2. Cars consume vast amounts of energy
- 9. Vehicle Fundamentals Gasoline ~ 250 kWh/100 miles Leaf with 24 kWh Battery 33 kWh/100 miles Tesla S with 85kWh Battery 31 kWh/100 miles
- 10. If you have two equally likely solutions to a problem, choose the simplest. – Occam’s Razor Returning to Occam BUT The EV has not replaced internal combustion engines because of the fuel
- 11. Comparative Analysis Batteries The Achilles Heel for EVs 2 – 8 hour recharge time 280 mile range for Tesla S $20,000 - $40,000 replacement Longevity questions Electricity everywhere; very few recharging stations Three Battery Challenges 1. Cost 2. Energy Density 3. Recharge Time
- 12. Battery Technology A Current Revolution Historic Metrics with Battery Technology Energy Density goes up 15% every 18 months Cost per KWh goes down 15% every 18 months Innovations on the Horizon Oscillating Electric Fields – battery recharge time Carbonized Graphite – Recharge time in minutes Si Graphene Electrode – 10x energy density, 1/10 charging time Liquefied Batteries Three Battery Challenges 1. Cost 2. Energy Density 3. Recharge Time
- 13. Electricity Consumption Average driver: 14,000 miles per year Tesla S: 0.31 KWh per mile Approximately 4,340 KWh per year 1 Billion cars in the world If 25% EV 1,085,000,000 MWh per year MWh worldwide: 20,000,000,000 MWh/yr Conclusion: EVs would add significant load to the Power Grid
- 14. The Power Industry Nuclear Natural Gas Coal
- 15. The Power Industry 39% 28% 19% 1% 7% 6% Electricity Generation 2014 Coal Natural Gas Nuclear Petroleum Hydro Other Copyright Principal Solar, Data Source: EIA.gov
- 16. Remembering… Average driver: 14,000 miles per year Tesla S: 0.31 KWh per mile Approximately 4,340 KWh per year 1 Billion cars in the world If 25% EV 1,085,000,000 MWh per year MWh worldwide: 20,000,000,000 MWh/yr Where does the additional power come from?
- 18. Calculations Average solar panel is 300 watts Panel size is 1 meter x 2 meters Tesla with 53kWh Battery 22 kWh/162Km 73 panels would be required to power the Tesla!
- 19. The Mobile Car Charger Conclusion: Solar is not efficient enough to be mobile and maintain charge
- 20. Solar Filling Station Conclusion: Solar could work for suburban and rural filling stations, but not urban. Assumptions: • Recharge 20 cars per hour • 200 Cars per day • Need 10 Mw System capacity • 40 acres required per filling Station Tesla with 53kWh Battery
- 21. Grid Solar Conclusion: Grid Solar would be the most practical (technical) resource for EV recharging. Assumptions: • Hundreds of megawatts • Grid Power • Available to recharge EVs during daylight hours
- 22. Grid Solar Does it add up from a cost effective perspective?
- 23. Trend Lines $0.040 $0.050 $0.060 $0.070 $0.080 $0.090 $0.100 $0.110 $0.120 Year 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Retail cost of electricity - $/KWh Source: US EIA
- 24. Trend Lines $0.00 $2.00 $4.00 $6.00 $8.00 $10.00 $12.00 $14.00 $16.00 $18.00 $20.00 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Year 30-Year Cost of PV Copyright Principal Solar, 2012 The hardest thing to explain is the glaringly evident which everybody had decided not to see. – Rand
- 25. Trend Lines 0.80 1.30 1.80 2.30 2.80 3.30 ModuleCost$/watt Spot Market Price for PV Germany China Japan Copyright: Principal Solar 2011 Data Source: pvXchange
- 26. Cost Analysis
- 27. Concluding Observations Electric Vehicles are more efficient and significantly less complicated than traditional vehicles Batteries are the Achilles Heel for Electric Vehicles Tesla and other manufacturers have made dramatic innovation leaps Innovations over the next 3–5 years will resolve battery issues EVs will add a huge load to the grid Solar PV is not practical for onboard recharging Grid charging will be cost effective in a few years.
- 28. EVs will Change the Electric Power and Transportation Industries The secret of business is to know something that nobody else knows. – Aristotle Onassis Michael Gorton BS, MS, JD CEO Principal Solar, Inc. [email protected] Mark Victor Hansen Co-creator of Chicken Soup for the Soul, Solar & Electric Car Advocate