For IP Communications, Ubiquity is Dead
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The document discusses the decline of traditional telephony and the fragmentation of voice and messaging services, emphasizing the need for interoperability and quality of service in modern communication. It critiques the reliance on conventional metrics like call minutes and suggests that the focus should shift towards understanding user intent and the context of communication. Ultimately, it concludes that ubiquity in communications is outdated, and new applications must better meet human needs.
![Pretty good for the 19th century...
Old distant voice [Tele-phone]
>100 years ago
Strictly session-based
Limited context
Background negative
One-size fits all
Unnatural etiquette
Heavily regulated
... but eventually ubiquitous](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/ubiquity-20is-20dead-20-20disruptive-20analysis-131106054611-phpapp02/85/For-IP-Communications-Ubiquity-is-Dead-8-320.jpg)
For IP Communications, Ubiquity is Dead
- 1. For IP Communications, Ubiquity is Dead Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis BICS Mobility in Action, Bruges, Oct 29th 2013 [email protected] @disruptivedean
- 2. About Disruptive Analysis London-based analyst house & strategic consulting firm Cross-silo, contrarian, visionary, independent Advisor to telcos, vendors, regulators & investors Covering VoIP since 1997 & 3G/4G mVoIP since 2007 Critic of RCS since 2008 Published report on “Telco-OTT Strategies”, Feb 2012 New report on WebRTC, Feb 2013 Workshops on Future of Voice & TelcoOTT Twitter @disruptivedean October 2013 Blog: disruptivewireless.blogspot.com Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
- 3. Neuroscience explains reluctance to change Predictable irrationality Endowment effect Optimism bias Confirmation bias Defence of belief systems Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
- 4. Voice & messaging are fragmenting Convergence & standards Fragmentation & differentiation Telephony & SMS will continue to exist, but there will be NO more standard, interoperable services
- 5. Comforting myths “Voice” = ubiquitous phone calls QoS is critical Interoperability is essential Minutes / messages = value October 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
- 6. Uncomfortable reality Phone calls are becoming less useful QoS is only sometimes critical Interoperability is essential for basic lowest-common denominator services only Intention & outcomes = value October 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
- 7. In the beginning – “Proxi-phone” Near voice Contextual Managed interruptions Background +/Sync + Async Not “session” based Etiquette, not regulation Varying importance Natural
- 8. Pretty good for the 19th century... Old distant voice [Tele-phone] >100 years ago Strictly session-based Limited context Background negative One-size fits all Unnatural etiquette Heavily regulated ... but eventually ubiquitous
- 9. ... but really not good enough for 21st century “Hegemony of the caller”
- 10. Voice ≠ Telephony • Now: 2G & 3G • Future: Smartphones & LTE Voice Voice Telephony Telephony Voicemail Conferencing PTT Video Gaming, CEBP, surveillance, social voice, TV voice etc Video, context, sense Comms moving “in-context” October 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
- 11. Fragmentation of communications models Standalone Circuit calls Good to have “lowest common denominator” IP Embedded app/web calls Non-call comms Maybe ubiquitous in a niche Ubiquity no/negative benefit Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
- 12. Intent & context.... Why do people make phone calls (or send messages, share media or use video), anyway? October 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
- 13. Intention & purpose Context Exchange information Sell to a customer Flirt Manage staff Gossip Tell a story Show off Feel connected Lie or pretend Self-expression October 2013 On the sofa In a meeting While online Using an app On the street On public transport In a bar Multi-tasking Duty Concentrating Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
- 14. 1 OR 2 “UBIQUITOUS” SERVICES CANNOT FULFILL ALL THESE PURPOSES WELL October 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
- 15. Tools are cheap/free. So we pick the right ones SMS October 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
- 16. So how important is quality? % calls Must have I'll call back Nice to have Meh. I want free October 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
- 17. Beyond “the minute” as a metric & model We don’t pay for movies or flights by the minute Short calls often more valuable than long Minutes = easy to count Align pricing – and charging – with value Locks telecom industry to obsolete business model Needs creativity, on top of standards Flat-rate at retail is popular, but wholesale? Analytics? Cloud processing? Perceived importance? Regulator mindset needs to shift too October 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
- 18. Service Product Feature Function October 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
- 19. Design & software simpler via the Web Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
- 20. For telcos WebRTC is really a magnifier/catalyst Now With WebRTC Bigger opportunities Worse threats Faster speed October 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
- 21. Ubiquity is dead. And that’s a good thing. We’re getting closer to communications services & applications meeting our real human needs We’ll still need lowestcommon denominator phone calls & maybe SMS & email. But that’s it for ubiquity. October 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
- 22. For WebRTC report & quarterly update details email [email protected] October 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013