Uncertainty of oil price forecasts and macroeconomic implications

Uncertainty of oil price forecasts and macroeconomic implications

• 1.
  Uncertainty of oilprice forecasts and macroeconomic implications Torbjörn Becker Director, Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE) @ Stockholm School of Economics www.hhs.se/site [email protected]
• 2.
  Agenda  Global outlookand oil price uncertainty  Russia and CIS
• 3.
  Global outlook andoil price uncertainty
• 4.
  Growing uncertainty(?) IMF WEOOct 2015
• 5.
  Risk assessment IMF WEOOct 2015
• 6.
  Volatile oil prices… IMFWEO Oct 2015 CBOE crude oil volatility index
• 7.
  … Uncertain oilprice forecasts IMF WEO Oct 2015
• 8.
  Supply and demandprojections consistent with price forecasts?
• 9.
  Oil reserves andpolitical systems 7/7 6/6 1/1 1/11/1(?) 6/5 2/2 ?/? 5/5 6/6 4/5 5/5 4/4 Political freedom/Civil liberty (Freedom House)
• 10.
  Russia and CIS
• 11.
  Russian roller-coaster mostly down 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 14-01-0614-02-0614-03-0614-04-0614-05-0614-06-0614-07-0614-08-0614-09-0614-10-0614-11-0614-12-0615-01-0615-02-0615-03-0615-04-0615-05-0615-06-0615-07-0615-08-06 Ruble/USD RTSI Oil(Brent)
• 12.
  Russian GDP couldfall further -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 Q1-2007 Q3-2007 Q1-2008 Q3-2008 Q1-2009 Q3-2009 Q1-2010 Q3-2010 Q1-2011 Q3-2011 Q1-2012 Q3-2012 Q1-2013 Q3-2013 Q1-2014 Q3-2014 Q1-2015 GDP%changesamequarterlastyear Imports%changesamequarterlastyear GDP Imports
• 13.
  Total Russian tradeto June 2015 Share in 2014 June 2015/ June 2014 Total 100 69 EU 48 66 APEC 27 70 CIS 12 60 ROW 13 86
• 14.
  Share of CIScountries’ exports going to Russia 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 BELARUSUZBEKISTAN M OLDOVA UKRAINE ARM ENIA KYRGYZTAJIKISTANKAZAKHSTANAZERBAIJAN TURKM ENISTAN
• 15.
  Currency depreciations last12 months among CIS countries 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% RUSSIAUKRAINEBELARUS M OLDOVA AZERBAIJAN KAZAKHSTAN TAJIKISTAN TURKM ENISTANARM ENIAKYRGYZ UZBEKISTAN
• 16.
  Remittances from Russiato CIS countries 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 TAJIKISTAN KYRGYZREPUBLICM OLDOVAARM ENIAUZBEKISTAN UKRAINEAZERBAIJAN BELARUS KAZAKHSTAN TURKM ENISTAN Remiancesas%ofGDP2014
• 17.
  Remittances from workersin Russia to CIS countries, recent trends 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2014Q1 2015 %ofsamequarterpreviousyear AZERBAIJAN, REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA, REPUBLIC OF BELARUS KAZAKHSTAN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC MOLDOVA TAJIKISTAN TURKMENISTAN UZBEKISTAN UKRAINE Total
• 18.
  CIS outlook (IMFWEO Oct 2015)
• 19.
  Thanks! Torbjörn Becker Director, StockholmInstitute of Transition Economics (SITE) @ Stockholm School of Economics www.hhs.se/site [email protected]
• 20.
  Global growth prospects