VisionMobile - Developer Megatrends H1 2015

Developer Megatrends H1 2015 © 2015 VisionMobile1
DEVELOPER MEGATRENDS H1 2015
© 2015 VisionMobile.com
May 2015

Developer Megatrends H1 2015 © 2015 VisionMobile
About VisionMobile ™
VisionMobileTM is the leading analyst company in the app economy and the developer ecosystem. Our surveys and app analytics track the changing landscape of mobile, IoT,
desktop, and cloud developers. We help clients like Microsoft, Intel, Google and Twitter decode the complex developer ecosystem and stay one step ahead of competition.
Developer Economics is VisionMobile’s flagship research program, tracking the latest mobile, IoT, desktop and cloud developer trends via our surveys and app analytics.
VisionMobile runs the largest, most global developer surveys, collecting data from thousands of developers across the globe, across regions, platforms and revenues.
Our mantra: distilling market noise into market sense.
VisionMobile Ltd.
90 Long Acre, Covent Garden,
London WC2E 9RZ
+44 845 003 8742
www.visionmobile.com/blog
Follow us on twitter: @visionmobile
Terms of re-use
1. License Grant.
Subject to the terms and conditions of this License, VisionMobile™ hereby grants you a worldwide, royalty-free, non-exclusive license to reproduce the Report or to incorporate parts of the Report (so long as
this is no more than five pages) into one or more documents or publications.
2. Restrictions.
The license granted above is subject to and limited by the following restrictions. You must not distribute the Report on any website or publicly accessible Internet website (such as Dropbox or Slideshare) and
you may distribute the Report only under the terms of this License. You may not sublicense the Report. You must keep intact all notices that refer to this License and to the disclaimer of warranties with
every copy of the Report you distribute. If you incorporate parts of the Report (so long as this is no more than five pages) into an adaptation or collection, you must keep intact all copyright, trademark and
confidentiality notices for the Report and provide attribution to VisionMobile™ in all distributions, reproductions, adaptations or incorporations which the Report is used (attribution requirement). You
must not modify or alter the Report in any way, including providing translations of the Report.
3. Representations, Warranties and Disclaimer
VisionMobile™ believes the statements contained in this publication to be based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied
upon as such. Opinions expressed are current opinions as of the date appearing on this publication only and the information, including the opinions contained herein, are subject to change without notice.
Use of this publication by any third party for whatever purpose should not and does not absolve such third party from using due diligence in verifying the publication’s contents. VisionMobile disclaims all
implied warranties, including, without limitation, warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose.
4. Limitation on Liability.
VisionMobile™, its affiliates and representatives shall have no liability for any direct, incidental, special, or consequential damages or lost profits, if any, suffered by any third party as a result of decisions
made, or not made, or actions taken, or not taken, based on this publication.
5. Termination
This License and the rights granted hereunder will terminate automatically upon any breach by you of the terms of this License.
Copyright © VisionMobile 2015 - v.1

VISIONMOBILE:THEANALYSTSOFTHEDEVELOPERECOSYSTEM
VisionMobile is the leading market research and analysis company in the app developer economy. Our surveys
and SDK analytics uncover the latest trends across mobile, IoT, PC, and Cloud developers, and help our clients
decode the complex developer ecosystem landscape.
Developer Economics is the largest, most global app developer research and engagement program reaching up
to 10,000 developers in over 140 countries. Now in its 9th edition, the research program tracks developer
experiences across platforms, revenues, apps, tools, APIs, segments and regions. Our Developer Economics
research also covers IoT, with the latest survey capturing trends from 4,000+ IoT developers.
Primary research Thought-leading reports Developer data

TRUSTEDBYTHELEADINGBRANDSANDMEDIA
clients who benefit from developer economics Leading media channels quoting our research

ABOUTTHEAUTHOR
Stijn
Schuermans
Senior Business
Analyst
Michael
Vakulenko
Strategy
Director
Christina
Voskoglou
Director of
Research and
Operations
Stijn focuses on understanding how
technology becomes value-creating
innovation, how business models affect
market dynamics, and the consequences of
this for corporate strategy. He is the lead
Internet of Things researcher in the
VisionMobile team since 2012. Stijn holds
an engineering master degree and an MBA.
He has over 10 years experience as an
engineer, product manager, strategist and
business analyst.

You can reach Stijn at:
stijn@visionmobile.com
@stijnschuermans
Michael has over 18 years experience in
mobile and telecom starting from working
on first experimental 3G systems in
Qualcomm. Later on Michael was part of
several startups developing products in the
areas of wireless, enterprise networking
and mobile apps. At VisionMobile Michael
works at the cross section of business
models, economics and technology where
he leads strategy practice for software-
centric business models in mobile, Internet
of Things and Connected Car.

You can reach Michael at:
michael@visionmobile.com
@mvakulenko
Christina leads the analyst team and
oversees all VisionMobile data projects
from methodology to analysis and insights
generation. She is also behind
VisionMobile’s developer segmentation
research, as well as the Developer
Economics reports and DataBoard
subscription services. Christina has more
than 16 years of experience in statistical
consulting, BI design and business
forecasting. She holds an MSc in Statistics
from the London School of Economics
(LSE) and a BSc in Economics & Statistics
from the University of Bath.

You can reach Christina at:
christina@visionmobile.com
@ChristinaVoskog

INTHISREPORT
6
Introduction – Developers are kingmakers in every industry
Developers
escape from the
app store
Developers
escape consumer
markets
Apps escape
from screens
Platform players
escape from
mobile

DEVELOPERSAREKINGMAKERSINEVERYINDUSTRY
7

DEVELOPERSHAVECONQUEREDTHEPHONEWITHAPPS
8 Source: VisionMobile estimates

THEY’REJOINEDBY800,000NEWMOBILEDEVELOPERSPERYEAR
9
http://vmob.me/AF14
Source: App Economy Forecasts 2014-2017 | VisionMobile

http://vmob.me/IoT15
10
53%of mobile developers are already
involved in the Internet of Things
… and many more to come
DEVELOPERSMOVETOMOREANDMOREINDUSTRIESANDVERTICALS

DEVELOPERSARECONQUERING…THEWRIST
11
Apple Watch
3,500+ apps
Android Wear
2,300+ apps
Pebble
1,400+ apps
Source: Apple, Pebble, Android Wear Center, VisionMobile estimates (Q1 2015)

DEVELOPERSARECONQUERING…THECAR
12
Aftermarket solutions for any car,
250+ OBD apps in Google Play,
growing support from big players
API available by invite only
40 new vehicle models in 2015
API publicly available (Nov 2014)
Apps can be published on Google Play (Mar 2015)
First models in 2015

DEVELOPERSARECONQUERING…THEHOME
13
There are a lot of things that we’re not going to be able to
build. We want to work with developers who bring other
great ideas in the mix. […] The iPhone was great - it had 5
apps on it when it shipped. Now it has a million apps on it.
The opportunity in the home is going to be pretty close.Tony Fadell
ex-Apple, CEO Nest
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=377oDvnrk5M&t=20m40s (edited for clarity)
a small selection of Smart Home platforms and APIs

DEVELOPERSARECONQUERING…THESKY
14
There are a lot of industrial use cases that DJI can’t build
the software for, but developers can come and create
software for industrial companies. Developers are already
using our SDK to build apps to help control drones for
agriculture, construction, and mining.Michael Perry
DJI
http://techcrunch.com/2015/05/06/dji-drone-platform/
“Android for drones”
http://dronekit.io/
Raised $75M to build an industrial UAV
developer platform (May 2015)
http://dev.dji.com/
An operating system for
commercial drones
http://www.airware.com/developers

Developersareconquering…cities
…healthcare
…clothing
…factories
…well,everythingreally!
15

TODAY’SCOMPETITIVEBATTLESAREWONANDLOSTBYATTRACTINGDEVELOPERS
16
Salesforce
1.4M registered devs in 2013
took #1 spot from Oracle in CRM
Apple iOS | Google Android
took #1 spot from Nokia and
Blackberry in (smart)phones
Under Armour
fashion brand uses
developers to engage
communities of athletes
Microsoft Windows
dominant OS in the 90s and 00s
because of superior developer strategy

EVERYCOMPANYSHOULDMASTERDEVELOPERECOSYSTEMSKILLS
17
platform
technology
people
rules for
interaction+ +
developer ecosystem =
individuals & companies
users & developers
API
cloud, APIs, apps,
devices, OS, …
app curation,
governance, …

Developers are a driving force in every industry
and a source of competitive advantage
Every company should master developer ecosystem skills

DEVELOPERSESCAPEFROMTHEAPPSTORE
19

70%REVENUEGROWTHFORAPPSINONEYEAR.GREATNEWS!ORISIT?
20
Source: http://blog.appannie.com/mobile-app-advertising-and-monetization-trends-2013-2018/
Worldwide online advertising and app revenue

THEAPPSTOREALONECANNOTSUSTAINTHEDEVELOPERPOPULATION
Only 1 in 9 developers that rely on app store revenues are in the safe zone
21
% of mobile developers who use paid downloads, in-app purchases or
advertising (and no other revenue model), by monthly revenue (n=1,187)
Source: Developer Economics Q1 2015
0%# 10%# 20%# 30%# 40%# 50%# 60%# 70%# 80%# 90%# 100%#
$0# <$500# <$10K# >$10K#
App poverty line
($500 per month)
Sustainability line
($10K per month)
Zero
zone
App poverty
zone
Twilight
zone
Safe
zone

FOLLOWTHEMONEY:E-COMMERCEISTHEWINNINGAPPREVENUEMODEL
22
Selling offline goods and services via apps:
71%
of the app economy
9%
of developers
earned
by

E-COMMERCEMODEL#1:APPSASACHANNEL
Transact through the app
23
Nearly 60 percent of Amazon.com customers shopped
using a mobile device during the 2014 holiday period

E-COMMERCEMODEL#2:MOBILE-FIRSTBUSINESSES
Offline services that couldn’t exist without the app
24
Uber will reach an estimated $10 billion annual run rate by end of 2015
http://www.businessinsider.com/uber-revenue-projection-in-2015-2014-11

E-COMMERCEMODEL#3:APPSASAPLATFORM
Enable others to build e-commerce businesses on top of your app
25 Source: Tencent investor presentation
WeChat app
3rd party
businesses
operating on
WeChat

http://vmob.me/AF14
200
300
400
500
91
120
152
186
2014 2015 2016 2017
total#mobile#e9commerce#revenue#($B)# all#other#revenue#models#($B)#
MOBILEE-COMMERCEWILLONLYGETBIGGERINTHECOMINGYEARS
26 Source: App Economy Forecasts 2014-2017 | VisionMobile

App stores alone cannot sustain the developer population
e-commerce is and will stay
the winning app revenue model

DEVELOPERSESCAPEFROMCONSUMERMARKETS

ANOTHERWAYTODODGETHEPOVERTYTRAP:TARGETENTERPRISES
29
64% of developers
target consumers
20% of developers
target enterprises
19% makes more than $10K per month
43% makes more than $10K per month

MAKINGTHEJUMPTOENTERPRISEMIGHTBEEASIERTHANITSEEMS!
30
Top 5 consumer categories Top 5 enterprise categories
There is substantial overlap in what consumer
and enterprise app developers are working on.
29%#
29%#
26%#
25%#
24%#
Utilities
Games
Entertainment
Education & Reference
Business & Productivity Tools
64%#
52%#
20%#
17%#
16%#
Enterprise
Business & Productivity Tools
Utilities
Communication & Social
Networking
Education & Reference

MAKINGTHEJUMPTOENTERPRISEMIGHTBEEASIERTHANITSEEMS!
31
Many apps can be simply repositioned or repurposed
to attract an enterprise audience rather than consumers

THEINTERNETOFTHINGSHASASIMILARDISTRIBUTIONOFDEVSANDREVENUE
32
Professionals,
employees, other
% of developers with IoT as their
main occupation by target audience
enterprises consumers
Source: Developer Economics Q1 2015 | Deloitte
60% of IoT
device sales
90% of IoT
service revenues
… will come from enterprises
in 2015

WINNERIOTDEVSAPPLYCONSUMERTECHNOLOGYTOENTERPRISEPROBLEMS
33
Wearables in industrial environments
enable and optimize workflow efficiency,
enhance communications, reduce paperwork,
and allow workers to take advantage of a hands-
free work environment
Source: Tractica
Drones
"The Phantom was simple enough for
beginners, but powerful enough to interest
serious hobbyists, professional
photographers, and filmmakers.“
Smartphones & wearables in medical
Apple ResearchKit: consumer smartphones and
wearables provide objective, continuous sensor
data and high signup rates in clinical research
Philips Hue
"The Hue range began as a pure consumer
project […] but the Hue line has seen traction
among small and medium businesses that are
looking to create ambience in their premises."
Waze Connected Citizen program
Data exchange program based on consumer-
generated data replaces expensive road sensor
network with limited geographical reach.
20+ cities and regions already participating

App and IoT developers will repurpose
consumer technology and business models
to solve the most important enterprise problems
(and dodge the poverty trap by doing so)

APPSESCAPEFROMSCREENS

APPSAREMOVINGOUTOFMOBILEDEVICES
The app paradigm of bite-sized software is replicated outside of smartphones
36
DesktopWatch
Browser
Car
HomeTV

THENATUREOFAPPSISCHANGING,TOO
37

YESTERDAY:THETRADITIONALAPP
38
the value is delivered by the app itself
(even when connected to a backend service)

TODAY:THECOMPANIONAPP
39
the value is delivered by the device
the app is just the remote control

TOMORROW:THEDATAAPP
40
the value comes from combining all kinds of data
the app processes triggers and signals across devices, sensors and APIs

THEFOCUSOFINNOVATIONSHIFTSTOMAKINGSENSEOFDATA
41
devices
sensors
APIs
Data Data app
delivering knowledge, enabling action
Connected device Companion app
Traditional appYesterday
Today
Tomorrow
Where the value is concentrated

THERISEOFTHEDATADEVELOPER
Not all IoT developers do hardware; many more work on software and data
42
App makers
e.g. smartwatch apps,
car apps,
Smart Home scenarios
Device makers
e.g. fitness bands,
smart flower pots
Data-centric
e.g. smart home hub,
health apps, Smart City,
system integrators,
community projects
%ofIoTdevelopers

FROMDEVICETODATAPLATFORMS
43
Current platform kings
device-centric
Future platform kings
data-centric
data routing
data
structuring
data tracking
& presentation
big data analytics
stream processing

Value in tomorrow’s apps will come from
making sense of data
Data developers and data platforms will be king

PLATFORMPLAYERSESCAPEFROMMOBILE

http://vmob.me/DE1Q15
WHATISTHEFUTUREOFMOBILEPLATFORMS,GIVEN…
46
(a) the current stalemate
in the platform wars
(b) the evolution to data-centric apps,
moving the focus away from
operating systems and into the cloud

THEFUTUREOFMOBILEECOSYSTEMSISINTHEINTERNETOFTHINGS
Android & iOS fully leverage their developer and user bases to gain traction fast
47
Smart
Home
Wearables Health &
Wellness
Connected
Car
WatchKit HealthKit
Google Fit
HomeKit
All these platforms are in the top 3 by developer popularity in their vertical.

MOBILERUNNERS-UPTRYTOCOPYTHERECIPE
With varying results in time-to-market and developer mindshare
48
Smart
Home
Wearables Health &
Wellness
Connected
Car
Windows in the Car?
N/A

E-COMMERCEPLAYERSAREINTOOWITHPRODUCTS,APISANDCLOUD
Distribution capability and engaged users attract developers
49
Mobile Internet of Things
Kindle Fire and Fire Phone Echo Fire TV
#1 e-retailer in China
Mi-series of phones and tablets wide range of home products and wearables

THE$BQUESTION:WILLNETWORKEFFECTSFROMMOBILECARRYOVERTOIOT?
Will the mobile platform duopoly be sustained?

In the future, IoT device selection by
consumers and enterprises will be
determined by “will it work with my
existing services and devices”.
We predicted this as early as 2010. In the
2012 edition of the Megatrends report,
we talked about the evolving meaning of
convergence. From converged networks,
to converged devices, to experience
roaming.
That prediction is now playing out in full.
51

CONVERGENCE:EXPERIENCEROAMINGACROSSDEVICES
52
Social circle
Developer ecosystem
User data roaming
Service roaming
User interaction design
Industrial design
Brand
experience roaming across devices
convergence = x

APPLEASTHEPOSTERCHILDOFEXPERIENCEROAMING
53
Social circle
Developer ecosystem
User data roaming
Service roaming
User interaction design
Industrial design
Brand
experience roaming across devices
Facetime
App store
iCloud
iTunes, Airplay
iOS
Apple
Apple
iPhone
iPad
Mac
Apple TV
Watch
CarPlay
iPod

MULTI-DEVICE,INTEGRATEDEXPERIENCES
54
2012
HomeKit Health / Watch CarPlay
Nest Fit / Wear Android Auto
Echo / Alexa
N/A
Kindle Fire Fire TV
Mi Band + …Mi / MIUI Mi note Mi TV / Mi Box
2015
Mac computers iPhone iPad Apple TV
Chrome browser Android Android tablets Google TV
Windows WindowsWindows Phone Xbox
PC smartphone tablet smart TV smart home
Cortana Health / Band Windows in the Car
?
Amazon.com Fire Phone
N/A
N/A N/A
Mi Smart Home +
…
health / wearables connected car

Mobile ecosystem winners are fully leveraging their developer
and user bases to win in the Internet of Things
In the future, IoT device selection by consumers and
enterprises will be determined by
“will it work with my existing services and devices”

Developer Megatrends H1 2015 © 2015 VisionMobileCopyright VisionMobile 2011
Knowledge. Passion. Innovation.
Updated: 12 November
2010
Get in touch with Us
Matos Kapetanakis
matos@visionmobile.com
Senior Manager,
Get the latest Developer Economics reports:
www.DeveloperEconomics.com/reports

VisionMobile - Developer Megatrends H1 2015

More Related Content

What's hot (20)

Viewers also liked (20)

Similar to VisionMobile - Developer Megatrends H1 2015 (20)

More from SlashData (10)

Recently uploaded (20)

VisionMobile - Developer Megatrends H1 2015