Download as PDF, PPTX
![[Day 1] Keynote - Opening Remarks and Challenges](https://cdn.slidesharecdn.com/ss_thumbnails/cgiar-csi-day1-31mar2009-opening-agra-090405004217-phpapp01-thumbnail.jpg?width=640&height=640&fit=bounds)
Wfs Conference Riel Malan Unlimited Group
- 1. Africa’s potential tobe the world food basket World Future Society Conference Cape Town 2010
- 2. THE “GOING HOME”SHIFT… Talk will be divided in 3 broad categories – that we can all relate to:
- 3.
- 4.
- 5.
- 6. UN GLOBAL POPULATION SCENARIO REGION 2007 (MILLION) 2050 % CHANGE • World 6,671 9,191 (can be as + 38 % high as 10,600 • Africa 965 1,998 +107 % • Asia 4,030 5,266 + 31 % • South America 572 769 + 34 % • North America 339 445 + 31 % • Europe 731 664 - 9%
- 7. Global Shift inConsumption • Rapid Urbanization • Reduction of poverty • < $2day – basic carb intake not met • $2-$10 – more protein is consumed • >$10 – demand shifts to more value added products • World Bank forecast – People earning > $16 000year • Current 352 M • 2,1 Billion by 2050 • 7 X increase in protein eaters
- 8. • Increased protein consumption largest driver of demand in coming decades • Production of 1kg protein on average requires 4 kg grain • 7 X increase in protein will cause a 7 X 4 increase in grain consumption = 28 X increase grain demand.
- 9. Food demand isestimated to double by 2050
- 10. DRUGS • To meet global demand increase will require a “second green revolution” • Challenge – 37% population increase – 28 X more feed grain • Only 12% of global agricultural land not being utilized (rainforests excluded) • Africa – holds bulk of this unutilized land • Agriculture uses 70% of world water resources • GM holds greatest potential to solve(resistance exists)
- 11. Utilize unutilized resources first.
- 12.
- 13. Africa at aGlance COUNTRY Total Arable Arable Irrigated % Arable Renewable Area km² Land Area km² area Km² irrigated Water km³ South Africa 1,214,470 12.1% 146,950.87 14,980 10.19% 50 Angola 1,246,700 2.7% 33,037.5 800 2.42% 187 DRC 2,267,048 2.9% 64,837.57 110 0.17 1283 Africa (Sub- 14,690,589 8.2% 1,198,411 49,340 4.12% Sahara)
- 14. Africa’s irrigation Potential •South Africa has some of the lowest renewable water resources in Africa • Yet it uses it very well. • South Africa as benchmark to calculate “theoretical irrigation potential” of Sub-Sahara Africa • Potential = 561 326.51 km² of additional irrigation possible • Not including areas where irrigation is not necessary
- 15. Africa holds thekey to solving any future global food crisis Land Water
- 16. Why is Africanot taking its rightful place as global food producer ? • Subsistence farming – deeply rooted in culture • Political instability & corruption (Perceived risk) • Lack of Infrastructure • Economies of scale – creating critical mass in low margin environment • Funding • Land ownership
- 17. Poverty Reduction • Africafaces the biggest poverty challenge of all continents • 107% increase in population • Agriculture by default deals with poverty at its root. • Food security major risk
- 18. The world isinterested in Africa
- 19. A very scarceresource • “We think now is an excellent point of entry for taking a long term position in agriculture – Lord Jacob Rothschild, Fortune Magazine. • Korea – Madagascar • America - Sudan
- 20. 5 Strategic ActionPoints • A realization of the magnitude of the crisis facing world – specifically Africa • Infrastructure challenges • Funding mechanism to deal with perceived risk vs. long term investment. • Gaining critical mass in global commercial agriculture • Cohesive execution of an African agricultural policy
- 21. South Africa’s rolein an African green revolution. • South African farmers are on par with their counterparts in the USA, Chile & Israel. • Adverse climate limited water resources • Furthest from international markets • Provide valuable knowledge into Africa • “Our strategy is to support farmers in a larger African context – in line with our business expansion goals.” The Thinker, March 2010. Minister Tina Joemat Pettersson
- 22. Africa holds thekey to solving any future global food crisis