What Smartphones Can Teach Futurists
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The document explores how smartphones have shaped the future of technology, business, and society, highlighting key factors like the long gestation period of disruptive tech and the importance of combining innovative approaches. It outlines various technological advancements expected by 2025 and analyzes corporate failures, particularly Nokia's inability to adapt. The insights emphasize the need for strategic planning, flexibility, and understanding cultural shifts in technology adoption.
What Smartphones Can Teach Futurists
- 1. Smartphones for futurists What Smartphones Teach Us About the Radical Future of Technology, Business, & Society Principal, Delta WisdomChair, London Futurists David Wood @dw2
- 2. @dw2 Page 2 Agriculture Education Healthcare Retail Media Navigation What’s next? What lay behind this remarkable success story? What lessons might be applied more broadly? http://smartphonesandbeyond.com/
- 3. @dw2 Page 3 20 tech breakthrough areas by 2025? Big Data and the Internet of Things: many fewer secrets Brain scanning: consciousness & creativity decoded Mind enhancing drugs (or hardware stimulation, e.g. tDCS) Cryptocurrencies: decentralised consensus systems Nanomaterials with super-strength & resilience 3D fabrication, with Atomically Precise Manufacturing Ubiquitous solar energy: major reduction of oil usage Wearable computers, Augmented Reality, remote virtual avatars Rejuvenation biotech: Stem cell therapies, synthetic organs Cognitive computing in healthcare: Most doctors redeployed Automated robot workers: nurses, soldiers… Driverless cars, drones: much safer, greener transport Credible cryonics: mass market suspensions Virtual companions more compelling than real ones Geoengineering E.g. massive carbon removal Quantum computing: Moore’s Law -> Rose’s Law Rational management of decisions and resources Synthetic meat: abolition of animal suffering Synthetic biology: reprogramming DNA, new life forms Sanitation & nutrition: Clean water, cities, vaccinations… http://anticipating2025.com/book/
- 4. @dw2 Page 4 First Nokia “mobile phone” Nokia Mobira Senator (1982) Weighed about 21 pounds Designed for use in or near cars 1980s McKinsey forecast for AT&T 0.9 million mobile US subscribers by 2000 Actual figure: 109 million Worldwide 1 billion by 2002, 2B by 2005, 7B by 2012... Hard to predict the effects of sustained tech growth! Devices increasingly numerous, lighter, and more useful http://www.talktalk.co.uk/mobile/galleries/view/mobile/retro/browse/1 www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/22/AR2008022202283_2.html Predictions of mobile phones Positive feedback cycle http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communicator_(Star_Trek) 23rd century
- 5. Vision: 1998 7 years to profitability 8 years to 100M devices +18 months to 200M devices +36 months to 500M devices Positive feedback cycle
- 6. @dw2 Page 6 What Smartphones Teach Us About the Radical Future of Technology, Business, & Society 1. Disruptive tech can take a long time in gestation – Even though it may eventually seem to blossom quickly
- 7. @dw2 Page 7 The (slow) emergence of tablets http://joyreactor.com/post/300138 Bill Gates introduces Tablet PC. No one cares. Steve Jobs introduces the iPad. The world pisses itself like an excited dog. Steve Ballmer introduces Surface. People accuse Microsoft of stealing the idea from Apple.
- 8. @dw2 Page 8 27 January, 2010 “8 Things That Suck About the iPad” http://gizmodo.com/5458382/8-things-that-suck-about-the-ipad 1. Big, Ugly Bezel 2. No Multitasking 3. No Cameras 4. Touch Keyboard 5. No HDMI Out 6. The Name “iPad” 7. No Flash 8. Adapters, Adapters, Adapters (“…You need an adapter for USB for god’s sake”) 9. It’s Not Widescreen 10. Doesn’t Support T-Mobile 3G (“it uses microSIMs that literally no one else uses”) 11. A Closed App Ecosystem. http://dw2blog.com/2010/01/28/the-ipad-more-for-less/ The (slow) emergence of tablets “iFail” “Not game-changing like the iPhone was” – Robert Scoble
- 9. @dw2 Page 9 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ipad#Model_comparison http://thenextweb.com/apple/2012/10/02/rare-full-recording-of-1983-steve-jobs-speech-reveals- apple-had-been-working-on-ipad-for-27-years/ iPad roadmap: Incremental delivery towards a vision Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2010 2011 2012 2013 iPad iPad 2 iPad 3rd gen iPad 4th gen iPad Air 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 “Apple’s strategy is really simple. What we want to do is we want to put an incredibly great computer in a book that you can carry around with you and learn how to use in 20 minutes… “And we really want to do it with a radio link in it so you don’t have to hook up to anything and you’re in communication with all of these larger databases and other computers.” Steve Jobs, 1983, International Design Conference, Aspen
- 10. @dw2 Page 10 23 October, 2012 “Apple sold their 100 millionth iPad two weeks ago” “We sold more iPads in the June quarter than any PC maker sold of their entire line-up” Market-cap > $620 billion >4 years to sell 100M iPhones <3 years to sell 100M iPads www.engadget.com/2012/10/23/apple-ipad-mini-liveblog/ www.forbes.com/sites/benzingainsights/2012/08/21/apple-now-most-valuable-company-in-history/ The (slow) emergence of tablets Apple Now Most Valuable Company in History
- 11. @dw2 Page 11 20 opportunities for enormous value? Big Data and the Internet of Things: many fewer secrets Brain scanning: consciousness & creativity decoded Mind enhancing drugs (or hardware stimulation, e.g. tDCS) Cryptocurrencies: decentralised consensus systems Nanomaterials with super-strength & resilience 3D fabrication, with Atomically Precise Manufacturing Ubiquitous solar energy: major reduction of oil usage Wearable computers, Augmented Reality, remote virtual avatars Rejuvenation biotech: Stem cell therapies, synthetic organs Cognitive computing in healthcare: Most doctors redeployed Automated robot workers: nurses, soldiers… Driverless cars, drones: much safer, greener transport Credible cryonics: mass market suspensions Virtual companions more compelling than real ones Geoengineering E.g. massive carbon removal Quantum computing: Moore’s Law -> Rose’s Law Rational management of decisions and resources Synthetic meat: abolition of animal suffering Synthetic biology: reprogramming DNA, new life forms Sanitation & nutrition: Clean water, cities, vaccinations… http://anticipating2025.com/book/
- 12. @dw2 Page 12 Kindle books vs. physical books www.theverge.com/2012/9/6/3298533/amazon-kindle-event-september-6th-video-watch E-books leapfrog physical books at Amazon in less than 3 years 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
- 13. @dw2 Page 13 Progress by combination Smart combination of multiple tech improvements • Cheap digital storage • Low energy screens, pleasant to look at • High-speed “Whisper net” wireless distribution • Customisable (Linux/Android) software platform • Huge catalog of books available to purchase + Innovative business model Improvements in computers: Performance Applicability (digitisation)
- 14. @dw2 Page 14 What Smartphones Teach Us About the Radical Future of Technology, Business, & Society 1. Disruptive tech can take a long time in gestation – Even though it may eventually seem to blossom quickly 2. Disruptive products rely on smart combination – Smart tech, innovative business model, powerful content – Delivering a vision incrementally (roadmaps are important!) 3. There are huge amounts of hard work setting the scene
- 15. @dw2 Page 15 Drama in the last five years
- 16. @dw2 Page 16 Causes of corporate stumbles Corporate inertia Loss of vision Key skills missing
- 17. @dw2 Page 17 Nokia’s biggest mistake (?) But if some ultimate cause needed to be named, Ollila says that it would be the problems that Nokia experienced in software know-how. The problem was recognised already in the 1990s. There were plans to fix them, but they were not implemented. http://www.zdnet.com/nokia-where-it-all-went-wrong-by-the-man-who- made-it-the-worlds-biggest-mobile-company-7000023046/ http://www.hs.fi/talous/a1381973653499 Jorma Ollila, CEO of Nokia 1992-2006, interviewed in October 2013 Large-scale software? Design? Integration? The new new thing?? Knowing-doing gap! http://dw2blog.com/2010/09/13/accelerating-nokias-renewal/
- 18. @dw2 Page 18 Not spotting the change Phone-centric worldview • Telephony was the most important app • Phone manufacturers should prioritise meeting the requests of network operators • Third party apps were a nice “extra”, but didn’t make any fundamental difference • Most innovation in smartphones came from within the mobile industry, rather than from Silicon Valley • The US market was a laggard in the adoption of smartphone technology; it was better to invest in Japan, China, or even India, than in the US. Internet-centric worldview • The Internet (and particularly the web browser) was now the most important application • Phone manufacturers should prioritise meeting the requests of Silicon Valley entrepreneurs • Third party apps – and, more generally, openness to external innovators – could bring fundamental new value • The US market would dramatically influence the way new smartphone technology was adopted around the world. Not being able to act on spotting the change
- 19. @dw2 Page 19 Causes of corporate stumbles Corporate inertia Technical debt Loss of vision Ecosystem failure Key skills missing
- 20. @dw2 Page 20 African proverb: Travelling If you want to go fast, go alone; If you want to go far, go together Products need speed Platforms enable long-distance travel 2014 2019 Positive feedback cycle
- 21. @dw2 Page 21 Positive feedback cycles Design, Manufacturing Computers
- 22. @dw2 Page 22 Positive feedback cycles Software tools (debuggers, compilers…) Software
- 23. @dw2 Page 23 Positive feedback cycles Education Technology
- 24. @dw2 Page 24 Positive feedback cycles Education Technology PeopleNetworks => Technology is likely to improve, faster and faster
- 25. @dw2 Page 25 Positive feedback cycles Developers Technology Platform Consumers Business Partners
- 26. @dw2 Page 26 Leading in a world of disruptions • Platform leadership A. Nurturing insight into technology trends B. Flexible, future-proof, debt-free architecture C. Interfaces that enable positive feedback cycles • Market leadership D. Business model innovation E. Developer motivation F. User motivation • Execution leadership G. Continuous integration H. Enterprise-scale agility I. Lean processes (focus)
- 27. @dw2 Page 27 Building a winning alliance, despite conflicts of interest Mobile phones Mobile networks Positive feedback cycle
- 28. @dw2 Page 28 Building a winning alliance, despite conflicts of interest Smartphones Smart networks Developers It helps to have an insanely great product! It helps to have powerful allies!
- 29. @dw2 Page 29 What Smartphones Teach Us About the Radical Future of Technology, Business, & Society 1. Disruptive tech can take a long time in gestation – Even though it may eventually seem to blossom quickly 2. Disruptive products rely on smart combination – Smart tech, innovative business model, powerful content – Delivering a vision incrementally (roadmaps are important!) 3. There are huge amounts of hard work setting the scene – Platform skills, Marketing skills, Execution skills – Patient investors; the right top management (no knowing-doing gap) 4. Don’t neglect culture engineering – User expectations, successful memes, DXE, ‘political’ alliances…
- 30. @dw2 Page 30 Obstacles to new technologies! 1. Underlying core technology may be too hard E.g. nuclear fusion, links between genetics & disease, battery lifetime… 2. Applications need to be designed and developed Real benefits; Acceptable usability; Acceptable price: Cross the chasm 3. Network infrastructure & business environment may resist change E.g. car battery charging stations, application stores: “the value chain” 4. Legal framework may oppose change E.g. government legislation, biased subsidies 5. Prevailing public mindsets may resist new technology E.g. “Soul-less little devil”, “Decay is natural”, “Don’t play God”
- 31. @dw2 Page 31 http://smartphonesandbeyond.com/ For more info Available summer 2014