Why sticking with windows xp is a bad idea idc - may 2012

WHITE P APER
Mitigating Risk: Why Sticking with Windows XP Is a Bad
Idea
Sponsored by: Microsoft Corporation
Al Gillen

Randy Perry

Nancy Selig

Global Headquarters: 5 Speen Street Framingham, MA 01701 USA

P.508.872.8200

F.508.935.4015

www.idc.com

May 2012

IDC OPINION
The termination of extended support for Windows XP SP3, which will happen on
April 8, 2014, is looming large for many enterprise organizations, and this deadline
has motivated many customers to accelerate their migration activities. However, for
some segments of the industry, significantly less effort is being applied to formal
migration initiatives, and Windows XP continues to be perceived as a solution that
works sufficiently for existing needs, whether it is supported or not.
 Microsoft has rightfully advocated the standardization of client operating system
(OS) deployments, allowing a more consistent approach to systems and
application management as well as settings and configurations management.
This allows support staff to coalesce its expertise around a single product.
Because of the lengthy life cycle of Windows XP, customers have enjoyed an
unprecedented level of client OS standardization.
 Windows XP is two generations behind Microsoft's current product technology
and, in the near future, will be three full generations behind. Combined with the
approaching end of extended support for Windows XP SP3, many customers are
placing themselves at risk if they continue to use Windows XP.
 Costs can soar with older PCs and older operating systems. This study found
that for five-year-old PCs running Windows XP, user productivity costs per PC
per year nearly doubled from $177 in year two to $324 in year five, while IT labor
costs per PC per year jumped from $451 in year two to $766 in year five. These
higher costs were caused by a variety of problems, not all directly attributable to
the operating system, but common in older solutions that required IT labor and
help desk support activities. User productivity costs were driven up by higher
levels of downtime caused by security woes, time wasted waiting for help desk
response, and time spent rebooting systems.
 IDC's analysis shows that supporting older Windows XP installations, compared
with a modern Windows 7–based solution, saddles organizations with a
dramatically higher cost. Annual cost per PC per year for Windows XP is $870,
while a comparable Windows 7 installation costs $168 per PC per year. That is
an incremental $701 per PC per year for IT and end-user labor costs.
 The conclusion is simple: Organizations that continue to retain a Windows XP
environment not only are leaving themselves exposed to security risks and
support challenges but also are wasting budget dollars that would be better used
in modernizing their IT investments.

METHODOLOGY
IDC's standard methodology was employed for this project. All of the financial
quantification is based on interviews with companies that have deployed both
Windows XP and Windows 7. This study was built around in-depth interviews with
nine end-user organizations that have deployed both Windows XP and Windows 7.
These interviews were used in aggregate to quantify the financial risks of not
migrating to Windows 7.
IDC bases return-on-investment (ROI) calculations on standard, accepted definitions
and calculations and the following assumptions:
 Time values are multiplied by burdened salary to quantify efficiency and manager
productivity savings.
 Downtime values are a product of the reduction in downtime hours multiplied by
the number of users affected and their hourly rate.
 Because not every hour of downtime equates to a lost hour of productivity, IDC
specifically asks about the percentage impact of an hour of downtime and
attributes a fraction of the hourly result to the dollar savings.
 All IT solutions require a deployment period. The full benefits of the solution are
not available during deployment. To capture this reality, IDC prorates the benefits
on a monthly basis based on the average deployment term.
 The net present value (NPV) of the three-year savings is calculated by
subtracting the discounted three-year investment from the discounted three-year
benefit. IDC uses an estimated discount rate to account for potential outlays
made at the time of deployment and interest on that investment. Typically,
companies use their cost of capital plus some risk factor.

IN THIS WHITE P APER
This IDC White Paper takes a deep look at the operational costs of Windows XP at
large organizations and compares and contrasts those costs against operational
costs associated with a current version of Windows — that being Windows 7 in every
customer site interviewed for this study. This study takes into consideration both IT
operational costs and selected end-user operational costs. The paper then
aggregates the costs associated with ongoing support and maintenance and
response to outages and hardware and software failures on the part of IT staff and
calculates the ROI associated with the deployment of Windows 7 to replace aging
Windows XP PCs.

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©2012 IDC

SITUATION OVERVIEW
Why It Is Time to Retire Windows XP
IDC believes that the industry has hit a natural transition point, with both hard and soft
cost justification to upgrade Windows XP installations with a Windows 7 solution.
Some of the reasons are as follows:
 New PC capabilities that are not exploited by Windows XP. Most new PCs
have features that were nonexistent, or immature, when service pack
enhancements for Windows XP were discontinued. Today's PCs include features
such as integrated WiFi and Bluetooth, faster USB ports, and high-resolution
monitors and touchscreen capabilities. Many of these capabilities are either
poorly supported or not supported by Windows XP Professional. Further, today,
most PCs ship with a minimum of 4GB of memory, which a typical 32-bit
Windows XP operating system is unable to address. A 64-bit install of Windows 7
allows full exploitation of that memory.
 The approaching end of Windows XP SP3 extended support on April 8,
2014. The termination of extended support means the end of security updates,
(paid) hotfix agreement support, and paid per-incident support services.
 Lower operational costs. This paper introduces hard data on the support costs
for Windows XP and compares those costs against the support costs for a more
modern solution. Simply stated, older technology has a higher maintenance cost.
This is exacerbated when organizations keep PCs in use for extended periods of
time (beyond a typical three- to four-year life cycle).
 Soft benefits. The broad consumerization of IT that is sweeping across the
industry has empowered end users and given them a louder voice in corporate IT
decisions. It is likely that most consumers have experienced a modern user
interface, whether it is Windows 7 or on one of the many rich consumer smart
devices and tablets that are proliferating. IT departments that artificially hold
users hostage aboard old technology solutions are setting the stage for a user
revolt that could lead to a loss of influence by the IT department. By proactively
encouraging the use of modern technology, the IT department is seen as being
interested in improving the productivity of users. End users feel empowered to
accomplish their jobs with modern tools that improve their productivity and
eliminate wasted time resulting from poorly performing old technology,
unnecessary application crashes, and operating system reboots.
 Compliance issues. Certain industry-specific regulatory requirements mandate
that software be maintained and kept current with patches and fixes. The
termination of Windows XP extended support means that organizations may find
themselves out of compliance.

©2012 IDC

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The Windows Market Today
Microsoft has been in command of the client operating system market for 20 years
now. Despite several recent years of robust sales of Apple PCs, Microsoft still
captures 9 out of every 10 client operating system sales in the industry on traditional
x86 PC form factors.
The bigger competition in the PC market continues to be a scenario of Microsoft
working vigorously to replace older versions of Windows operating systems and
related applications, including Microsoft Office. In recent years, the dynamics have
focused on the deployment of Windows 7, displacing Windows XP and, in a minority
of the cases, displacing Windows Vista.
IDC research finds that Windows 7 adoption is going very well for Microsoft, and
Windows 7 (and the successive product, Windows 8) is on a trajectory to capture the
vast majority of new Windows deployments moving forward.
However, shipment volume is only one dimension of the market dynamics, and to
fully understand the challenge that Microsoft faces, one must consider the installed
base view.
Microsoft customers continue to have an enormous installed base of Windows XP
operating systems. As of the end of 2011, Windows XP accounts for a remarkable
42% of the commercial (non-home use) Windows client operating environment
installed base. Therein lies part of the problem that Microsoft and Microsoft's
customers face given the approaching termination of Windows XP extended support.
With the current trajectory, the Windows XP installed base will contract to 11% of paid
commercial Windows client operating systems in use by the end of 2014.

Windows 8
IDC has not yet broken out Windows 8 shipment projections from the current forecast
totals. However, on traditional PC form factors (desktops, laptops), IDC does not
expect to see any near-term acceleration to current commercial shipment forecasts
associated with the release of Windows 8. IDC notes that traditional IT adoption and
deployment cycles are preceded by a qualification and impact study associated with
any new products, and any impact from Windows 8 on commercial deployments will
not likely be felt before late 2013 or early 2014. In the interim, after the release of
Windows 8, we expect to see customers exercising downgrade deployment rights
with new PCs they acquire that come from OEMs preloaded with Windows 8, which is
common adoption behavior among enterprise IT departments until they fully qualify
and approve the use of a new product.

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FUTURE OUTLOOK
Study Demographics
IDC conducted a study to assess the risk and the cost incurred by organizations that
choose to extend their Windows XP life cycle rather than move forward to a current
Microsoft product. For this study, we conducted in-depth interviews with nine
organizations: four professional services firms, two educational organizations, and
one organization each in construction, government, and petroleum production.
They are large organizations with an average of 3,680 employees, 68 IT staff
members, and 14 PC support staff specialists. In the case of the educational
organizations, the number of PCs supported far exceeded the number of employees
due to transient student populations.
Among the study group, 90% of the end users were categorized as office workers (which
includes students). Another 7% were classified as road warriors, including executive staff
and sales professionals. An additional 3% were classified as work-from-home staff. In
terms of hardware demographics, 54% are desktop users and 39% are laptop users, with
the balance using a collection of other devices, including tablets and other smart devices.
From a platform use perspective, over 90% of the devices in use within the study
group are running Windows, with the overall total split between Windows 7 (65%) and
Windows XP (29%). Four organizations were at 100% with Windows 7 aboard their
Windows PCs, and two organizations were over 93% standardized on Windows XP.

The Windows XP/Windows 7 Dilemma Today
Anecdotal comments from IT professionals at these companies were indicative of the
challenges and opportunities facing the industry.
Justification for upgrading to Windows 7 cited by study participants includes:
 Support concerns: "We were concerned that XP would no longer be supported"
 Stability benefits: "Creating the most stable platform to give us the capability of
doing offsite mobility much easier then we could have done with XP"
 Standardization: "We just wanted to standardize on one OS"
 Features of Windows 7: "The security is a lot better," "speed, reliability, flexibility,
ease of use," "ability to virtualize apps," "capability of using DirectAccess as
opposed to VPN apps"
Yet customers that were not upgrading justified their position with adoption blockers
that other customers are likely concerned with:
 Stability: "Windows XP has been relatively stable, people are happy, they are
able to do their jobs ... no pressing need to force me to [upgrade]"
 Installed hardware: "We need newer hardware; these machines won't take
Windows 7"
 Compatibility: "We are afraid that our apps won't be compatible"

©2012 IDC

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The Cost of Staying on Windows XP
Figure 1 provides a convincing argument for the value associated with updating
operating systems and replacing aging PCs. In particular, as systems pass the 3- to
3.2-year mark, costs begin to accelerate. IT labor costs jump by 25% during year four
of ownership and an additional 29% in year five. User productivity costs suffer as well,
with a 23% jump in year four and a 40% jump during year five. Comparing year five
directly with year two indicates that combined IT labor costs and user productivity
costs are a remarkable 73% higher. This paper explores these cost areas in more
detail in the following sections.

FIGURE 1

Support cost per PC per year ($)

The High Cost of Supporting Older Systems

900
800

$766

700
600
500

400

$592
$451

$474
$324

300
200

$177

$188

$231

100
0
Year 2
IT labor costs

Year 3

Year 4

Year 5

User productivity costs

Source: IDC, 2012

IT Time Costs
Table 1 provides a detailed look at the factors that add to the costs that are illustrated in
Figure 1. There are two aspects to consider in Table 1: the absolute impact of any one
IT productivity metric in terms of hours per PC per year and the magnitude of change
that can be realized by moving to Windows 7. For example, patch management alone
accounts for 49% of the operational activity investment required to continue supporting
a Windows XP environment. Moving to Windows 7 will reduce the time invested in
patch management by 82%. Considered another way, Windows XP requires over five
times more hours per PC per year of patch management than Windows 7.
Collectively, operational activity time required to support PCs shows a 70% reduction
in terms of hours per PC per year for organizations that choose to replace their
Windows XP systems with Windows 7.

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TABLE 1
Annual IT Productivity Metrics (Hours per PC per Year)
Metric

Windows XP

Windows 7

Change

% Change

Deploying/replacing PCs

0.33

0.11

0.22

66

Security-related activities

0.29

0.19

0.10

35

Maintaining images

0.30

0.13

0.17

57

Deploying applications

0.43

0.12

0.31

72

Patch management

1.5

0.3

1.2

82

User administration

0.20

0.07

0.13

64

Operational activities (subtotal)

3.0

0.9

2.1

70

Downtime

2.9

0.6

2.3

79

Help desk

4.8

0.8

4.0

84

Mitigating malware/viruses

0.60

0.06

0.54

90

Downtime-related activities
(subtotal)

8.3

1.5

6.8

82

11.3

2.3

8.9

79

Total
Source: IDC, 2012

The other dimension detailed in Table 1 is the impact of downtime and responding to
problems that compromise a PC and require IT intervention to restore the system.
The single largest component in downtime-related activities is the help desk
operation, which accounts for 58% of the downtime-related time spent supporting
Windows XP. Not far behind is resolving downtime issues, which accounts for 35% of
the total time spent by IT in supporting Windows XP. Those metrics can be reduced
by 79–84% through a move to Windows 7.

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When combined, all IT activities account for 11.3 hours of time spent per PC per year
when using Windows XP. Shops that have moved to Windows 7 enjoy a far lower cost,
spending 2.3 hours per PC per year on maintaining those systems. The cost of staying
with Windows XP is the consumption of an additional 9 hours per PC per year.
One way to rationalize the magnitude of the impact of that high support cost is that for
every 230 PCs an organization supports, the equivalent of one additional full-time
resource (40 hours per week) is required to maintain Windows XP. A move to
Windows 7 frees up an equal number of hours, and for every 230 PCs an
organization upgrades to Windows 7, one full-time equivalent of staff time is freed up
to work on other projects that bring direct value to the business.

End-User Time Costs
One area that can easily be overlooked by IT departments is the rest of the cost to
the business — the impact of problems on end users. Any end user can relate to the
frustration at having a compromised system — whether it is because of a virus
infection, some instability that builds up over time, or in other cases, an accidental
self-inflicted problem caused by users tinkering with their system settings and
configurations. Regardless of the cause, the result is the same: Users are unable to
do their jobs, and the IT team has to come to the rescue.
Table 2 highlights the cost areas that affect end users. One of the two key areas that
most impact end users is the time spent waiting for the help desk to respond to and
mitigate a problem users experience. This area alone accounts for over half of the
annual productive time users lose when working on a Windows XP PC. The other
area is reboot time, which accounts for 28% of the hours per PC per year that end
users lose. Together, those two areas account for 80% of users' lost time.

TABLE 2
Annual User Productivity Metrics (Hours per PC per Year)
Metric

Windows XP

Windows 7

Change

% Change

Time lost to virus or malware attacks

0.6

0.1

0.5

90

Time lost to reimage a PC (result of
virus/malware attacks)

0.01

0.00

0.01

87

Time lost for reboot

2.5

0.2

2.3

94

Downtime

1.1

0.2

0.9

83

Help desk

4.8

0.8

4.0

84

Total

9.0

1.2

7.8

87

Source: IDC, 2012

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For users that have upgraded to a Windows 7 PC, time lost to reboots is virtually
eliminated through a 94% reduction. In addition, because Windows 7 tends to be
more stable and less prone to compromise, the time lost waiting for help desk
response is reduced dramatically, with Windows 7 leading to under an hour of time
per PC per year for end users. Overall, user productivity is dramatically boosted by
Windows 7, while Windows XP users are saddled with 7.8 additional hours of lost
time per year compared with their colleagues using Windows 7.

Key Performance Indicators
Table 3 presents key performance indicators that IT departments will experience
when supporting their existing Windows XP environments compared with a
Windows 7 alternative.

TABLE 3
User Productivity Key Performance Indicators
Key Performance Indicator (KPI)

Windows XP

Windows 7

Change

% Change

84

67

17

20

Mean time to repair (minutes)

222

24

198

89

Time lost to virus or malware attacks per year (hours)

0.6

0.1

0.5

90

Number of reboots per month

5.4

0.7

4.6

86

Average time per reboot (minutes)

4.1

1.4

2.7

66

Time lost for reboot (hours)

2.5

0.2

2.3

94

Failure rate (%)

3.0

1.0

2.0

55

Downtime hours per year

1.1

0.2

0.9

83

Number of virus or malware attacks per month

Note: Some KPI metrics are cited in minutes, while others are cited in hours or per month.
Source: IDC, 2012

ROI AN ALYSIS
IDC uses a discounted cash flow methodology to calculate the ROI and payback
period. ROI is the ratio of the NPV and discounted investment. Payback period is the
point at which cumulative benefits equal the initial investment.
Table 4 presents IDC's ROI analysis for the deployment of Windows 7 to replace an
older Windows XP installation. This ROI analysis constitutes a three-year view of the
payback associated with a move from Windows XP to Windows 7.

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As shown in Table 4, organizations spent an average of $712 (discounted) per PC to
replace each Windows XP (including hardware and software) and saved $1,685
(discounted) per PC in reduced IT labor support and lost productivity over three
years. The payback period for a new deployment of Windows 7 is calculated at
12 months. The migration from Windows XP to Windows 7 yields a 137% return on
investment over a three-year period.

TABLE 4
Three-Year ROI Analysis
Benefit (discounted)

$1,685

Investment (discounted)

$712

NPV

$973

ROI

137%

Payback period

12 months

Discount rate

12%

Source: IDC, 2012

Figure 2 presents the outcome of the ROI analysis in graphical form.
The initial investment includes the average total costs for a fully loaded PC
with Windows 7 offset by the cost to replace the PCs as part of the average
replacement cycle (3.4 years). Annual benefits include reduced IT labor support and
lost productivity.

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©2012 IDC

FIGURE 2
ROI Analysis

2,000
$1,392

1,500

1,000
$691
$300

($)

500

$25
0
-500
-1,000
($1,012)
-1,500
Initial year

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

Investment — Windows 7
Avoided replacement of Windows XP
Net savings
Source: IDC, 2012

CHALLENGES/OPPORTUNI TIES
Any organization considering a move to a new operating system must take into account
both the challenges and the opportunities. Some key considerations are as follows:
 Challenge: It takes money to save money. For organizations to embark on an
upgrade cycle to replace Windows XP with Windows 7 requires confidence and
commitment to take on capital expense (capex) with the presumption that there
will be an operational expense (opex) that returns on that capex investment.
While this study shows a clear benefit and a measurable ROI, for many
organizations, capex costs are far easier to identify and measure than opex cost
reductions.
 Opportunity: Cost savings are forever. Once an upgrade is completed, and
the operational costs are lowered, those lower operational cost benefits continue
to accrue into the future with no further direct capex investment.

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 Challenge: Potential compatibility concerns. This study specifically evaluates the
benefit of replacing Windows XP with Windows 7. However, application upgrades (or
at least application compatibility mitigation) may be required as part of the upgrade
process. This ROI analysis does not allow for applications that must be replaced.
 Opportunity: Well positioned for the future. Making a move to Windows 7 now
means that organizations are well positioned to embrace Windows 8 aboard new
hardware form factors that will leverage the Windows 8 Metro user interface.
Over time, there may be justification to upgrade Windows 7 PCs with Windows 8,
and all indications at this time are that the move from Windows 7 to Windows 8
will be seamless for applications and nonimpactful to existing hardware.
 Opportunity: Standardization. The ability to bring all PCs to a common,
modern operating system leads to greater satisfaction among users and IT
professionals as well as the ability to leverage cutting-edge applications, improve
manageability, and reduce security risks thanks to features such as User
Account Control, Internet Explorer 9, AppLocker, BitLocker, and other features
designed to improve overall security.

CONCLUSION
This IDC White Paper shows clear benefit associated with a move from Windows XP to
Windows 7 and presents a case for the many reasons why remaining with Windows XP is
no longer a good business decision. Costs tend to soar when older products are used
beyond their intended life cycle, and IDC research has clearly confirmed that trend.
Benefits include the ability to reduce operational costs and avoid the need to hire
additional support personnel as well as the opportunity to help users be more
productive and happy in their daily work environments.
The April 8, 2014, termination of extended support for Windows XP SP3 is a firm,
impactful deadline that should be a real wake-up call for organizations of all sizes, but
especially for midsize and large customers.
Given the age of Windows XP, which is now two generations behind Microsoft's
current product technology, the time has come for customers to realistically consider
that they are placing their businesses at risk by continuing to utilize Windows XP.
Organizations that continue to retain a Windows XP environment not only are leaving
themselves exposed to security risks and support challenges but also are wasting
budget dollars that would be better used in modernizing their IT investments.

Copyright Notice
External Publication of IDC Information and Data — Any IDC information that is to be
used in advertising, press releases, or promotional materials requires prior written
approval from the appropriate IDC Vice President or Country Manager. A draft of the
proposed document should accompany any such request. IDC reserves the right to
deny approval of external usage for any reason.
Copyright 2012 IDC. Reproduction without written permission is completely forbidden.

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©2012 IDC

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