You dont have to be mad to do VR and AR ... but it helps

Editor's Notes

• #3: As a Unity Evangelist – its important to be honest. I’m a big fan of VR/AR/MR experiences. And as JR has said as a company we are ‘all-In’ with VR. You just have to listen to Tony Parisi, who heads up strategy for VR & AR “We think that immersive technologies like VR and AR represent the next computing platform. We will not just use VR and AR to create games, we will tell stories and build worlds, we are also going to share moments and hang out together online. To be clear I’m not in the VR team, and this talk will not technical, it won’t be about Unity’s plans; that’s not what I am here to do Instead my job is to help developers think about how to be successful in the market. To share my experience as a designer of bleeding edge services online, on mobile and on console and show you what I’ve learnt that helped me survive new frontiers and platforms over the years. To also share my experience as a developer and a consultant and applying that to the challenge of AR/VR/MR Oh and this will be focused on Games – as its what I know best - but I will try to show that it’s these game developer skills which will be essential for any success in AV/VR/MR And for me it the first thing we need to do is ask questions – at times like this we even have to be prepared to ask the wrong questions like… Why is a Raven like a Writing Desk?
• #4: Now before we get started properly; lets make sure we all agree on some terms VR AR MR Location Virtual World How many of you are game developers/Designers/non-games?
• #5: The technology we are talking about is arguably still in its infancy but it is now real and in the hands of users. Oculus and Vive with the power of a fully spec’d PC allows the elite gamer to enjoy incredible levels of immersion PSVR makes VR experiences accessible in the front room Cardboard, Daydream and Gear VR turn the phone in our pocket into an immersive world – free of wires And how can we leave out Hololens and Magic leap… So many platforms being conceived But there is one common thread From HD TV to 3D Cinema, from Eye-Toy to Kinect, From Wii to Move controllers there is a clear desire to put the player into the experience. And in each generation the barriers to adoption go down as the quality of experience goes up Head Mounted displays may seem clunky to some users; but they are a stepping stone toward the goal of creating truly immersive experiences
• #6: With the vast competition in Mobile and Steam many developers are looking at VR/AR as a way to differentiate – but is now the right time to drink the cool aid? Christian Cantamessa, lead designer and writer on Red Dead Redemption thinks “The medium is moving in its first steps right now... [sic] Nobody knows anything. The door is wide open. It will take us somewhere new so we don’t retread the same waters.” The sense of presence we experience from both VR is powerfully and exciting and means we have to approach storytelling, game mechanics and User Interface as if we know nothing! We have to start again.
• #7: But VR/AR have their own limitations. The teathered experience with Cable and ‘room-based’ VR introduces some practical physical limitations and we have t accept that not everyone will have enough space to explore the possibilities Even when we are not physically moving (and lets face many players won’t always want to run about) we have to be really careful about how we handle targeting; travel and keeping a fixed frame of reference to avoid Cybersickness. The huge improvements in quality and latency have gone a long way to minimise the risk; but we still have to adhere to some basic principles to avoid this being a problem for some people – at least till they get their ‘VR’ legs. …but if you accept those constraints you can work past them I remember in 2003 being told ‘Why would anyone need a smartphone to play games”
• #8: And what about the audience? which platforms will survive and thrive? SuperData recently revised their estimated of 2.6 million units PSVR by the end of 2016. to less than 750,000 for the year. Similarly they have reduced their estimates for Google's Daydream now 261,000 (down from 450,000). However, their projections for other leading headsets, including HTC Vive (450,000), Oculus Rift (355,000), and Gear VR (2.3 million) have not changed. However, contrast this with Digicapital’s report projecting a VR market of $30bn and an AR market of $120bn by the year 2020. The growth rate is expected to be huge. Of course, lets not forget that Games are only a small part of this; but it’s the design skills of game developers which will lead the way in commercial and training applications
• #9: So back to the Question – what are we trying to Prove… That means we need a premise which can be tested part of will be another important question… Why will anyone care? This seems deceptively simple – but it means you have to understand who is affected by the test; what they expect already and why your test will satisfy that audience. People have very different needs and expectations but more profoundly there is no ‘common design language’ We don’t yet know the best way to deliver experiences in virtual worlds; but that doesn’t mean we don’t know anything.] Look at what’s gone before and not just in VR/AR but in terms of virtual worlds like Playstation Home and Second Life as well as location games like Shadow Cities which predated Ingress Augmented reality experiences like Zombies Run (which is an audio only experience) and Invizimals on PSP Understand what lessons have already been learnt – to avoid wasting time making the same mistakes
• #10: For many developers the core reason to make VR content is to simply try out something they could do in a traditional video game but in a virtual world. They just want to show they can use to tools That’s fine – but its not going to win you any prizes and it might just suck as well if you aren’t careful. The problem is the act of putting on goggles changes everything. This is a knowing act which sets-up an expectation of what it to come. It allows the designer to change the sense of presence and perspective in ways which are quite profound. You are no longer playing the game; you are in the game. The gun is not pointed at your character – its pointed at you! When you move your head – its your head. When you swing that sword its really in your hand (*well the controller is – but to you it’s a sword) The experience in Batman VR is an excellent example of this feeling. *Spoiler! There is a scene where you are the young Bruce Wayne watching his parents get killed, by someone huge (from your point of view). This made Batman’s origin feel far more personal than I’ve ever experienced it. Imagine we were in wonderland? Beware the Jaberwocky my son!
• #11: Right now is a great opportunity to step through the looking glass. To experiment in an environment where there is the rare opportunity where investment money is ready and willing to try new things. Where the tools are in place to build anything you can imagine We just have to be in a position to push through and decide what it is we are going to do. The key to passing through the mirror is to ask the question… What Do I Have To Prove? Thorsten Wiedemann (AMAZE) wanted to prove that you could spend 48 hours in VR Tommy Palm wants to prove you can make mainstream family friendly VR content John Hare wants to reinvent table-top football Other people want to explore story telling; different ways to interact; ways to chance our perspectives (Among The Sleep)
• #12: That range of possibility can become its own prison however. Development requires more than just the crazy act of creativity; we have to define a scope we can attain. And at some point our investors are going to expect a return. That’s why we have to remember what we set out to test By looking at each game as a test we can focus on learning the key lesson which will allow us to do something in VR that no-one else has tried and that makes our expertise unique. We have to pick that one thing and deliver it beautifully! Scott Rodgers makes an important point in his book Level Up where he talked about the ‘Triangle of Weirdness’ in that players find it hard to engage unless they have some common frame of reference. We can change the characters, world and activities – but not all three. In VR we are already changing the activities and the way we engage in the world so simplification really matters.
• #13: That doesn’t mean we can’t change the experience; that we can throw in the surreal and whimsy. Look at how games like Job Simulator and Expect you to die have used natural hand controls and physics to great effect whilst Headmaster makes you feel that your body is the controller Look at how Unseen Diplomacy creates a real obstacle course in a virtual space Look how Keep Talking and No-one Explodes has blended videogames with Table-top style play And terms of AR look how simply 1600 turns a dollar Bill into the Whitehouse It takes a little crazy to do something which captures the imagination; but the real skill is keeping it simple!
• #14: There are some formats which are clearly emerging if you want to get started with something that we know can work: VR rollercoaster Turret control Space Shooter/Flight Sim Archer/quick draw Table top game (Wonderglade/Sociable Soccer) Blindfold Game (i.e. play with someone in the room who doesn’t have the HMD) 360 visual or audio (passive) experience (3D space to watch video content) Gaze based puzzle/HOG Escape room But think about what you are bringing to the chosen format and what problem that solves!
• #15: Its also worth taking time out to think about the physical experience for the player themselves. Do you really want the player standing up all the time? If you do how does this affect how long they will spend playing? How much exercise do you expect them to do? (and is this part of the experience?) Take time considering the process from deciding to play and ever step that they have to take. Switching on the PC/Console; finding the HMD or controllers; putting them on; having space to do all of that (not just physical space but in terms of family time/etc) Think how you can make those steps easier and seems as worthwhile as possible. How can we start the process to trigger the anticipation by getting them to put on the googles – rather than have that be a barrier. Think about the control schemes available to you and the consequences of that decision. Gaze is pretty universal; but can introduce odd limitations – like how do to manage the speed and direction of your vehicle if you only have gaze? If you can control everything with gaze that vastly expands the potential size of your audience; but perhaps have different levels of engagement with different devices. What would a game look like if you had one player using Carboard with gaze only control competing with an other player using Vive. Can you use those different interactions to developer a new form of asymmetrical play? Of course always return to what you are trying to prove. If the multiple control schemes don’t help you answer that question – don’t do it!!
• #16: Wearing VR (as we have said) changes the way we think as we play. The way we interact with UI has to change completely. We noticed this even in the Flat screen world of Playstation Home. We started to discover the value of being able to walk up to an object and look around it. The Game ‘Cogs’ took on a completely new way of playing when it existed in a 3D space which we had to walk around. Even the UI of the world itself took new shape as we started to use the architecture of the environment to help the flow of people through spaces so they would naturally find content they would enjoy… ‘Look over there is an Incan Temple that must be the Adventure zone’ When we put on that HMD it also has an impact on our behaviour in subtle ways which we have yet to fully explore. Traditional Virtual Worlds have shown people lose their social inhibitions and feel anonymous (even if they can actually be identified) However, I’m not aware if there is yet research to see if this changes when you are immersed in a game. I can’t wait to find out.
• #17: Interestingly Narrative changes too Hard to tell things in the past and hard to be sure that we tell the same story as we can’t be sure all see the same thing LARP-like
• #18: Of course we can’t ignore the commercial realities so at some point you will need to think about the potential return If we do some simple sums on the number of devices that are in market that leaves us with 4m VR devices as an addressable base… and this is not the time for an emerging F2P market. Compare that to the Mobile or Steam Market and its tiny… for now and remember it’s a cake which has to be sliced up If we assume Superdata are right: PSVR 750,000 $15-$54 Daydream 261,000 $1-$7 HTC Vive 450,000 $3-$22 Oculus Rift 355,000 £15-50 Gear VR 2.3 million £3-£8 So a cross-device game able to target 3% of the addressable base with an average price of $10 could generate at most $1.2M gross. Which for me would mean planning the scale of the project budget to be between $80k-$150 (perhaps a little bit higher if you believe the predicted growth – but this shows why keeping the budget tight is so important. However, that number changes based on what you are trying to Prove – and whether your investors expect a direct return on the project or not.
• #19: Importantly though Making Money in VR is not currently the primary objective – if that’s your primary reason I suspect there are a lot easier ways We are in the ‘Innovation’ or ‘Learning’ stage of the market – this is where we are establishing that there is a market and what needs we can fulfil. It’s a time of experimentation and for building up your skills. For establishing your brand (and market share). This is the time to let the creative minds free – to let them try and fail. There is no formula for success – not even any established Genres or pricing models This is the time where new brands are created. Who will break new ground wil determine who is the next Angry Birds, the next Candy Crush, the next World of Warcraft. This is the undiscovered country
• #20: But this opportunity for freedom comes at a price… To survive, especially as a small indie, we need to consider very carefully how each project will differentiate our team from the others and balance that with the scale of the project we can sustain. However, there are other ways to generate revenues Sponsored content that brings a brand into this new content form Work for Hire that allows you to design/build technology that can be repurposed for your games Training Tools (esp. Blue Light or Military New Theme park experiences (like Galactica, Derren Brown’s Ghost Train or the Void) Virtual Test Drives for Audi Medical/Plumbing/etc etc.
• #21: However, the key remains keeping the project small, simple and testable – we can’t afford to ‘Eat the cake’ as have the project shoot up in scale! We can however, learn the lessons from Mobile and Online games and build on the Lean Start-up approach and the ability to use Analytics to test what people actually do. Fail fast, fail early, learn! Oh and where possible build on the lessons we can already see in the market (so you don’t have to do it twice) – that’s why its essential to play as much content as you can. Even the simple joy of discovering that you could look at panoramic images in Daydream can be a moment of inspiration. Whether you are making a game, a visual experience or a tool for business the skills are largely the same. There are amazing tools out there which allows us to blend 360 Video with 3D objects, physical controls and human interaction – including Unity of course!!
• #22: Now it’s the time. Make something which stands out Make your Content Meaningful Test it Analytically And Be Disruptive That’s the best way to be MAD about Games
• #23: Some examples of great games to check out