The global population is aging, but growth may peak by century's end. Virtually every country in the world is experiencing growth in the number and proportion of older persons in their population.

The world’s population is expected to keep growing for another 50 or 60 years, peaking at around 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s, up from 8.2 billion in 2024, before declining gradually to 10.2 billion in 2100, according to the World Population Prospects 2024

The probability of this peak occurring within the century is quite high -estimated at 80%, a significant increase from 30% in 2013-. The population in 2100 is now expected to be about 700 million fewer than previous forecasts, largely due to lower-than-expected fertility rates in major countries, particularly China.

By 2080, people aged 65 and over will outnumber children under 18

By the late 2070s, the global population aged 65 and older is projected to reach 2.2 billion, surpassing the number of children under age 18. By the mid-2030s, there will be 265 million individuals aged 80 and older, outnumbering infants. Even rapidly growing nations will experience a rise in the elderly population over the next 30 years. Those nations will need to prepare for significant demographic changes by strengthening health and long-term care systems, ensuring social protection sustainability, and investing in new technologies.

Given that women generally live longer than men, policies must ensure equitable access to retirement benefits, address gender-specific healthcare needs, and bolster social support systems to alleviate caregiving burdens.

Migration as a driver of population growth

In 50 countries, immigration is expected to mitigate population decline due to low fertility and an aging population. For countries such as Italy, Germany and the Russian Federation, where the population has already peaked, the peak would have occurred earlier without immigration. By 2054, immigration will drive population growth in 52 countries, including Australia, Canada, and the USA, and in 62 by 2100.

While emigration generally has little effect, in 14 countries with ultra-low fertility, it will significantly contribute to population loss. In nations with fertility below replacement levels, encouraging decent work and return migration may be more effective in slowing population decline than policies aimed at increasing fertility.

Life expectancy returning to pre-COVID-19 levels

Since 2022, global life expectancy has returned to levels before COVID-19. In 2023, fewer than 5 million children under age 5 died for the first time. This improvement mainly happened in countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo, India, Nigeria, and Pakistan, which are expected to grow in population through 2054.

Life expectancy at birth reached 73.3 years in 2024, with further reductions in mortality expected to result in an average global life expectancy of around 77.4 years in 2054.

Better life expectancy should help increase population growth or slow decline in most areas, especially where death rates are going down, along with some immigration.

Did you know?

  • In 63 countries and areas – containing 28 per cent of the world’s population in 2024 – the size of the population peaked before 2024. This group includes China, Germany, Japan and the Russian Federation.
  • By the late 2030s, half of the women in countries with populations that have already peaked will be too old to have children by natural means.
  • In 2024, 4.7 million babies, or about 3.5 per cent of the total worldwide, were born to mothers under age 18. Of these, some 340,000 were born to girls under age 15, with serious adverse consequences for the health and well-being of both the young mothers and their children.
  • The number of women in the reproductive age range, which is about 15 to 49 years old, is expected to increase until the late 2050s. It will likely reach around 2.2 billion, up from nearly 2.0 billion in 2024.
  • In countries with young populations, investment in education, health and infrastructure, along with reforms to promote decent work opportunities and improve government transparency and efficiency, is vital to ensure this opportunity isn't wasted.
  • Raising the minimum legal age at marriage and integrating family planning and safe motherhood measures into primary health care can help to raise women’s levels of education, facilitate their economic participation and reduce the incidence of early childbearing.

Key Conferences on Ageing

To begin addressing these issues, the General Assembly convened the first World Assembly on Ageing in 1982, which produced a 62-point Vienna International Plan of Action on Ageing. It called for specific action on such issues as health and nutrition, protecting elderly consumers, housing and environment, family, social welfare, income security and employment, education, and the collection and analysis of research data.

In 1991, the General Assembly adopted the United Nations Principles for Older Persons, enumerating 18 entitlements for older persons — relating to independence, participation, care, self-fulfillment and dignity.  The following year, the International Conference on Ageing met to follow-up on the Plan of Action, adopting a Proclamation on Ageing. Following the Conference's recommendation, the UN General Assembly declared 1999 the International Year of Older Persons. The International Day of Older Persons is celebrated on 1 October every year.

Action on behalf of the ageing continued in 2002 when the Second World Assembly on Ageing was held in Madrid.  Aiming to design international policy on ageing for the 21st century, it adopted a Political Declaration and the Madrid International Plan of Action on Ageing.  The Plan of Action called for changes in attitudes, policies and practices at all levels to fulfil the enormous potential of ageing in the twenty-first century.  Its specific recommendations for action give priority to older persons and development, advancing health and well-being into old age, and ensuring enabling and supportive environments.

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