Energy Systems Research Group at the University of Cape Town

Now more honest and informative: https://lnkd.in/dVnazihW. After some of us called out tired-looking and inaccurate rehashes a few months back, Eskom's #media statements on the state of the #power system are worth reading again. And the underlying system status is now also much more robust. Is it time to shift the narrative, once again, from just avoiding loadshedding, to arresting a decade of steep upward cost drivers? Heavy industry (#chrome, #aluminium) have recently drawn serious consequences to unaffordability, while citizen protests have not gone unnoticed either.

The South African government is talking BIG on green #hydrogen: https://lnkd.in/dUBG3Tan. "Green #industrialisation for Africa" is one of the hopes. I attended the opening day and briefly spoke on a panel, on the evidence which #energy #systems #modelling can supply for planning such big investments, but there was too little time to share any real insights. So, panel chair Thabo Hlalele, here is the main point that was in my notes that I could not make, directly responding to this green industrialisation vision: It is irrational to expect green hydrogen to play any significant role in South Africa's domestic #economy in the 2030s unless the country commits to a very ambitions #GHG reduction target in its next #NDC update. This is both logical, and borne out by #SATIMGE modeling results done by our team at the Energy Systems Research Group at the University of Cape Town. Specifically, if such targets were to be adopted, it looks economically rational to expect green hydrogen to appear in the production of #steel, #ammonia and #methanol, in that order. (This is from currently unpublished work, but some of it should be in the public domain soon.) This does not detract from signicant opportunities to make green hydrogen and its derivatives for export in the 2030s. This would be a good thing not only to earn foreign income (replacing coal exports), but also to help our trading partners in the global North to further reduce their #CO2 emissions, if they can indeed afford to buy these products. (Thank you for sharing that powerful animation of 1-year of global CO2 emissions and its mixing in the atmosphere Prof. Dr. Christopher Hebling!) And so this would also be Africa's contribution to protecting itself from the ravages which this invisible gas causes. (This second point rooted in logic only, not in modeling results.)

Can powerplants get the weekday blues? I've been noticing for a few weeks now that it seems that #Eskom's outage levels seem to look good over weekends but then rise at the beginning of each new work week. So I requested the hourly outage levels from the Eskom dashboard (thanks for the prompt response!) and have done some analysis. Looks like your kit takes sick leave more often on a Tuesday and Wednesday than on weekends Bheki Nxumalo? Has anyone else noticed this? Is there an explanation, Dan Marokane, Chris Yelland, Monique le Roux, Dr Zwanani Titus Mathe, James Mackay? And no day gets close to the claimed good performance of 12 GW or less Subesh Pillay!

It is a travesty that such a well-located site has been standing largely unused for 3 decades! https://lnkd.in/dt4MqEMV. Heritage should be living, not a decaying thing you see behind a fence when you drive past on the freeway. 30 ha is not a lot for green #energy but the site's potential to connect #communities and #energise the local #economy is very significant. How about a green energy #training centre tied to real working plant, to give meaning to the idea of the #energy #transition? Can we get out of the confrontational deadlock towards a vision that works both for living our heritage and developing sustainably?

Will #electricity users subsidise #gas users? https://lnkd.in/ddDVwSDj. This is a big decision to try to unblock #LNG importation into South Africa. It will have significant consequences if implemented, for multiple parties, good and bad. What evidence was this based on? Was it not possible to delay this policy decision until the integrated energy plan #IEP is complete and ready for public consultation?

Yeah, a bit of relief for the constrained national grid! https://lnkd.in/dqFC9rdh. Well done to the project teams!

Can't resist commenting on this example of poor corporate #communications: https://lnkd.in/dg3SEQb2 - Really, it's the 1st time Eskom adds new capacity to the national grid?! Apart from that syntax blunder in the headline, the national utility could have shown some #humility in acknowledging the very long #delays and #cost overruns that have cost the nation dearly. And referring to the Medupi unit 4 loss as a "generator stator failure" rather than the accidental hydrogen explosion which it was, is a euphemism of note!