Rocket Report: A nearly perfect flight for Starship; China’s surprise launch

Starlink, Kuiper, and the US military all saw additions to their mega-constellations this week.

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[Yui]

I never thought I'd see the day when Japan relies on New Zealand to launch its satellites.* Japan is still far more advanced compared to us, but seeing little New Zealand actually provide a world-class rocket service to a G7 country fills me with pride. Thank you Sir Peter for literally bootstrapping the entire New Zealand space industry.


*
Yes yes, I know that Rocket Lab is half-American (and mostly American owned), but the rocket is still being launched from Kiwi soil.

 

[Leika]

Other news for rocketry out of Europe (PLD Space), October update:

• closing a 130 million round by end of year, 170 million total funding thus far
• Miura 5 critical design review completed, orbital rocket designed/developed in 2 yrs
• greenfield Kourou launch pad construction commenced (first of private European launcher companies planning to operate out of French Guiana)
• maiden launch by end of Q1 2026, second Miura 5 by Q3 2026
• supersonic retropropulsion to be attempted on maiden flight (but no booster reuse)
• planned profitability in 2027, commence new factory construction in 2028
• engine production rate by end of 2025 of 1 engine every 14 days
• 3rd launch site in Southeast Asia planned by 2027
• first successful test fire of TEPREL-CVac
• 420 employees by year’s end, 400 now
• new testing stand built (simultaneous hotfire of 2 TEPREL-C engines in one stand)
• tested stage separation with dummy vacuum engine nozzle
• starting to define low-level requirements and critical technologies for the manned capsule

 

[barrattm]

Starship's "close to prestine" condition is the best yet, but it did seem like the nose was on fire, somewhere.

It'll be interesting to see how many of these sea set-downs they have to do before they're allowed to start bringing one in to a landing tower. Being on fire - albeit a small fire - probably means that the sea landings are to continue. But once they're landing on land (so to speak), they can start seeing properly how the design is holding up. It's going to take a large number of launches / landings to get a statistical view of how well their heatshield holds up, but SpaceX seem well set up for that.

China's Unannounced Launch

I thought there was some sort of treaty requiring prior announcements of launches, aimed at making sure that those who watch for ICBM launches don't react on a hair-trigger to surprises... Or is there no such treaty?

 

[Rudde]

Starship looks like a rainbow trout

 

[Roamer]

Starship's "close to prestine" condition is the best yet, but it did seem like the nose was on fire, somewhere.

<snip>

That fire from the nose was said to be from left over propellant being vented from the top of the rocket, so no big deal.

 

[r0twhylr]

It certainly appears to be in much better shape than the last flight, but there is still a lot of rust-colored material on the heat shield. Has SpaceX indicated this was the expected result? I also wonder what the white streaks indicate about crunch-wrap ablation, and how often that will need to be inspected/serviced. I imagine that when they finally start recovering these on land, they'll get a lot more valuable data.

However it goes, I imagine that Starship will take the Falcon 9's flight-proven grunge look to a whole new level.

 

[peterford]

Starship looks like a rainbow trout

Oh! So that explains why China recently launched that ship with a giant tickling hand mounted on the side.

 

[self_proclaimed_guru]

It certainly appears to be in much better shape than the last flight, but there is still a lot of rust-colored material on the heat shield. Has SpaceX indicated this was the expected result? I also wonder what the white streaks indicate about crunch-wrap ablation, and how often that will need to be inspected/serviced. I imagine that when they finally start recovering these on land, they'll get a lot more valuable data.

However it goes, I imagine that Starship will take the Falcon 9's flight-proven grunge look to a whole new level.

They intentionally removed many tiles to stress test the heat shield again, this time in some of the most critical areas that have no ablative backing, so the expectation was definitely damage to the heat shield but with high probability of survival on reentry. The new heat shield configuration being tested included a “crunch wrap” felt layer to seal the gap between the tiles. Hopefully soon they get to launch a full and complete set of tiles instead of stress testing the shield.

 

[rayleonard]

Starship's "close to prestine" condition is the best yet, but it did seem like the nose was on fire, somewhere.

It'll be interesting to see how many of these sea set-downs they have to do before they're allowed to start bringing one in to a landing tower. Being on fire - albeit a small fire - probably means that the sea landings are to continue. But once they're landing on land (so to speak), they can start seeing properly how the design is holding up. It's going to take a large number of launches / landings to get a statistical view of how well their heatshield holds up, but SpaceX seem well set up for that.

China's Unannounced Launch

I thought there was some sort of treaty requiring prior announcements of launches, aimed at making sure that those who watch for ICBM launches don't react on a hair-trigger to surprises... Or is there no such treaty?

I think the plan is to do one suborbital launch of the v3 vehicle following a similar flight pattern- maybe with a more finished heat shield- followed by the 1st orbital flight and ship catch attempt. They know the ship is a beast at surviving re-entry. So far it has successfully re-entered, flipped, engines lit, and soft landing every single time it has hit entry interface under control, even when they try to push the envelope and see what breaks.

Next year will be the year of the Starship steamroller.

 

[A_Very_Tired_Geek]

China's Unannounced Launch

I thought there was some sort of treaty requiring prior announcements of launches, aimed at making sure that those who watch for ICBM launches don't react on a hair-trigger to surprises... Or is there no such treaty?

Not really beyond NOTAMs as specified in the Convention on International Civil Aviation which is more of a international law liability thing. Apparently the only flight corridors affected in this launch were over PRC sovereign space. From what I can gather the PRC is in the habit of only informing those flights in the need to know with direct, rather than broadcast, information when they want to be sneaky.

I doubt the PRC finds other Cold War era understandings between the US and USSR to avoid launching polar orbiting space craft over the North Pole binding. Both the US and Russia launch polar satellites and probes towards the South Pole to avoid misunderstandings that a first strike ICBM launch had been initiated but I can't find any treaty that specifically bans north pole launches or requires such notifications. Shiyan-31 is in a polar orbit, but I also can't find which direction, north or south, it was launched.

 

[dragonzord]

I never thought I'd see the day when Japan relies on New Zealand to launch its satellites.* Japan is still far more advanced compared to us, but seeing little New Zealand actually provide a world-class rocket service to a G7 country fills me with pride. Thank you Sir Peter for literally bootstrapping the entire New Zealand space industry.


*
Yes yes, I know that Rocket Lab is half-American (and mostly American owned), but the rocket is still being launched from Kiwi soil.

I think it's mainly because the lucrative US government contracts require it to be American. If he could've kept it Kiwi and still gotten those, he probably would.

 

[EllPeaTea]

Not really beyond NOTAMs as specified in the Convention on International Civil Aviation which is more of a international law liability thing. Apparently the only flight corridors affected in this launch were over PRC sovereign space. From what I can gather the PRC is in the habit of only informing those flights in the need to know with direct, rather than broadcast, information when they want to be sneaky.

I doubt the PRC finds other Cold War era understandings between the US and USSR to avoid launching polar orbiting space craft over the North Pole binding. Both the US and Russia launch polar satellites and probes towards the South Pole to avoid misunderstandings that a first strike ICBM launch had been initiated but I can't find any treaty that specifically bans north pole launches or requires such notifications. Shiyan-31 is in a polar orbit, but I also can't find which direction, north or south, it was launched.

I thought that polar launches from Plesetsk go due north these days.

Edit: link to page about northerly launch from Plesetsk: https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2024/02/an-upcoming-russian-sso-launch-from.html

 

[Bill Swallow]

Apropos of nothing, does anyone know the current status of Germany's RFA and ISAR?

Or the Saxovord launch facility?

Thanks.

 

[afidel]

I think it's mainly because the lucrative US government contracts require it to be American. If he could've kept it Kiwi and still gotten those, he probably would.

ITAR is probably a bigger factor.

 

[blackhawk887]

Not really beyond NOTAMs as specified in the Convention on International Civil Aviation which is more of a international law liability thing. Apparently the only flight corridors affected in this launch were over PRC sovereign space. From what I can gather the PRC is in the habit of only informing those flights in the need to know with direct, rather than broadcast, information when they want to be sneaky.

I doubt the PRC finds other Cold War era understandings between the US and USSR to avoid launching polar orbiting space craft over the North Pole binding. Both the US and Russia launch polar satellites and probes towards the South Pole to avoid misunderstandings that a first strike ICBM launch had been initiated but I can't find any treaty that specifically bans north pole launches or requires such notifications. Shiyan-31 is in a polar orbit, but I also can't find which direction, north or south, it was launched.

Chinese polar launches always go south AFAIK, mainly to avoid the diplomatic kerfuffle associated with dropping spent stages on Russian territory.

 

[EllPeaTea]

Apropos of nothing, does anyone know the current status of Germany's RFA and ITAR?

Or the Saxovord launch facility?

Thanks.

I believe both RFA and ISAR are hoping to launch by the end of the year (but I don't think either of them have given any indication that they will).

Edit: some recent news articles:
https://spacenews.com/isar-aerospace-prepares-for-second-spectrum-launch/
https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2025/04/rfa-saxavord-interview/ (from April)

 

[nimelennar]

I tried to submit this for this week's report, but it didn't make the cut (or maybe it was a problem with the link I submitted):

Roskosmos is reported having made the decision to put its post-ISS space station into the same orbit and abandoned plans to service it with a new-generation spacecraft, resorting instead to the veteran Soyuz spacecraft based in Baikonur, in order to save cash.

 

[Dtiffster]

I tried to submit this for this week's report, but it didn't make the cut (or maybe it was a problem with the link I submitted):

And if you believe that one I have a...well, space station to sell you.

 

[A_Very_Tired_Geek]

Chinese polar launches always go south AFAIK, mainly to avoid the diplomatic kerfuffle associated with dropping spent stages on Russian territory.

That was my assumption. I was looking for confirmation and couldn't find it in the annoyingly brief practically near verbatim copy/paste news briefs that flood the top several pages of search returns looking for Shiyan-31.

 

[nimelennar]

And if you believe that one I have a...well, space station to sell you.

That there's going to be a new space station to service? Yeah, doubtful.

That there's a plan for one that has been scaled back — and pieces of it cancelled — to save cash, all while keeping the idea theoretically alive (but again, yeah, never going to actually happen)? Yes, I do believe that.

 

[ColdWetDog]

Starship's "close to prestine" condition is the best yet, but it did seem like the nose was on fire, somewhere.

It'll be interesting to see how many of these sea set-downs they have to do before they're allowed to start bringing one in to a landing tower. Being on fire - albeit a small fire - probably means that the sea landings are to continue. But once they're landing on land (so to speak), they can start seeing properly how the design is holding up. It's going to take a large number of launches / landings to get a statistical view of how well their heatshield holds up, but SpaceX seem well set up for that.

China's Unannounced Launch

I thought there was some sort of treaty requiring prior announcements of launches, aimed at making sure that those who watch for ICBM launches don't react on a hair-trigger to surprises... Or is there no such treaty?

I think this sturm und drang about SH/SS cadence is kinda funny. If these were, say, cars, the 11th prototype of a car would not create any fuss nor notice. Same with phones, software or pretty much anything else tech related. Yeah, it's bigger and more expensive. Probably a reason to do even more testing,.

 

[Dtiffster]

They intentionally removed many tiles to stress test the heat shield again, this time in some of the most critical areas that have no ablative backing, so the expectation was definitely damage to the heat shield but with high probability of survival on reentry. The new heat shield configuration being tested included a “crunch wrap” felt layer to seal the gap between the tiles. Hopefully soon they get to launch a full and complete set of tiles instead of stress testing the shield.

It's obvious from their testing that they expect to lose tiles, and they tested it here not only with a lot of tiles missing but as you said with them missing in bad places. The idea was to setup something like a worst case scenario, and the vehicle met it with a resounding meh. The implication being that on a launch in which random tiles fall off the heatshield will be even better.

And yeah they are still testing construction methods, but they're rapidly converged to something good enough to fly. They likely expect to have one more flight where they can do some more experiments dialing in the final configuration, though I expect it will still be close to production next time. The heat shield took them longer than they expected, but they can make it work for now and iterate to greatness.

 

[FranzJoseph]

That there's going to be a new space station to service? Yeah, doubtful.

That there's a plan for one that has been scaled back — and pieces of it cancelled — to save cash, all while keeping the idea theoretically alive (but again, yeah, never going to actually happen)? Yes, I do believe that.

And it will be named Kosmitcheskaya stanitsa imeni Grigoryi Aleksandrovitcha Potemkina ;-)

 

[Dtiffster]

That there's going to be a new space station to service? Yeah, doubtful.

That there's a plan for one that has been scaled back — and pieces of it cancelled — to save cash, all while keeping the idea theoretically alive (but again, yeah, never going to actually happen)? Yes, I do believe that.

Yes, my read is that they presented a plan, were told there was no money for it, and are scaling back to make it more affordable. Only there is no more affordable. Space is a nice soft power flex in peace time, but the Kremlin is in survival mode now. A new space station is well down the list of things they'd fund if they find a few hundred billion rubles in between the couch cushions at one of their Dachas. The Russian space program wasn't that healthy to begin with, but the atrophy that will set in from the continuing and escalating austerity will probably finally kill it.

 

[wagnerrp]

Next year will be the year of the Starship steamroller.

The “Falcon 9 Steamroller” was when they finally started ramping up with reuse, plowing through their backlog, and gobbling up any spare launch demand in the market. The “Starship Steamroller” will be when Starship does the same to Falcon 9, at least with Starlink. Even SpaceX isn’t planning for that next year, and continues to expand the pace of Falcon 9 launches.

 

[wagnerrp]

Any details on what makes this iRocket thing newsworthy? It sounds like they fired a Hydra into the desert, only with a parachute? And that took them a whole month? It all sounds less impressive than what the amateur rocketry YouTubers are doing.

 

[TylerH]

I think this sturm und drang about SH/SS cadence is kinda funny. If these were, say, cars, the 11th prototype of a car would not create any fuss nor notice. Same with phones, software or pretty much anything else tech related. Yeah, it's bigger and more expensive. Probably a reason to do even more testing,.

If cars were as rare, expensive, complex, and difficult to operate successfully, and their function was as grand in scope as traveling to space, the 11th prototype launch would absolutely get such fuss.

 

[ds08]

Has SpaceX released a current spec for the low earth orbital payload of the Starship? How much weight have they added to achieve this successful launch and reentry?

 

[shawnce]

Has SpaceX released a current spec for the low earth orbital payload of the Starship? How much weight have they added to achieve this successful launch and reentry?

They have continued to state at least 100t to a Starlink useful LEO orbit (not seen exact reference orbit information they are using). It is likely it will be a bit over that when the Raptor 3 based craft are flying.

 

[rhgedaly]

They intentionally removed many tiles to stress test the heat shield again, this time in some of the most critical areas that have no ablative backing, so the expectation was definitely damage to the heat shield but with high probability of survival on reentry. The new heat shield configuration being tested included a “crunch wrap” felt layer to seal the gap between the tiles. Hopefully soon they get to launch a full and complete set of tiles instead of stress testing the shield.

I agree. I assume that SpaceX could concentrate on maximizing the stress testing on these past flights because there was no intention to catch and reuse the V2s.

 

[Mandella]

Unfortunate about Japan's Epsilon S. Any insight on what the problems are with it? After all, it is "only" a solid rocket motor...

 

[wagnerrp]

Unfortunate about Japan's Epsilon S. Any insight on what the problems are with it? After all, it is "only" a solid rocket motor...

The first test had a malfunctioning ignition charge. The second attempt has no publicly stated cause that I can find, but there is video.

 

[Bill Swallow]

The “Falcon 9 Steamroller” was when they finally started ramping up with reuse, plowing through their backlog, and gobbling up any spare launch demand in the market. The “Starship Steamroller” will be when Starship does the same to Falcon 9, at least with Starlink. Even SpaceX isn’t planning for that next year, and continues to expand the pace of Falcon 9 launches.

Different steamrollers. Next year - Development/Testing steamroller. Farther down the road - Production steamroller.

 

[thxzetec]

Starship's "close to prestine" condition is the best yet, but it did seem like the nose was on fire, somewhere.

It'll be interesting to see how many of these sea set-downs they have to do before they're allowed to start bringing one in to a landing tower. Being on fire - albeit a small fire - probably means that the sea landings are to continue. But once they're landing on land (so to speak), they can start seeing properly how the design is holding up. It's going to take a large number of launches / landings to get a statistical view of how well their heatshield holds up, but SpaceX seem well set up for that.

China's Unannounced Launch

I thought there was some sort of treaty requiring prior announcements of launches, aimed at making sure that those who watch for ICBM launches don't react on a hair-trigger to surprises... Or is there no such treaty?

the heat shield (reusable + reliable + not too heavy) is huge challenge. I thought this video was interesting . . . starship pretty beat up as it touched down but spacex purposely stressed it hard n left tiles missing on purpose


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mkpVjFRb2X8

 

[Dtiffster]

Different steamrollers. Next year - Development/Testing steamroller. Farther down the road - Production steamroller.

The steamroller of F9 steamroller fame is the effect it has had on the market. You have to flatten something or it isn't really steamrolling anything.

 

[YetAnotherBoris]

That fire from the nose was said to be from left over propellant being vented from the top of the rocket, so no big deal.

As far as I can tell, the fire was on the heat shield side of the nose cone. As far as I know, there are no vents through the heat shield there.

If I'm correct, then the fire might have been caused by methane leaking out of a damaged transfer tube connecting the header tanks in the nose cone to the engines; with the damage caused by a hull burn-through due to deliberately missing TPS tiles over that particular 'critical' location.

There was at least one other, much more conspicuous and unambiguous, burn-through at the bottom of the main LOX tank on the windward side, with a pretty intense stream of white vapor spewing out of it, during the entire portion of the belly flop maneuver captured by SpaceX's drones.

 

[Curiosus Novitius]

Starship's "close to prestine" condition is the best yet, but it did seem like the nose was on fire, somewhere.

It'll be interesting to see how many of these sea set-downs they have to do before they're allowed to start bringing one in to a landing tower. Being on fire - albeit a small fire - probably means that the sea landings are to continue. But once they're landing on land (so to speak), they can start seeing properly how the design is holding up. It's going to take a large number of launches / landings to get a statistical view of how well their heatshield holds up, but SpaceX seem well set up for that.

China's Unannounced Launch

I thought there was some sort of treaty requiring prior announcements of launches, aimed at making sure that those who watch for ICBM launches don't react on a hair-trigger to surprises... Or is there no such treaty?

It's not like these are being launched from in-ground silos and I'm sure US assets had a clear view of the launchpad for days prior.

 

[YetAnotherBoris]

They have continued to state at least 100t to a Starlink useful LEO orbit (not seen exact reference orbit information they are using). It is likely it will be a bit over that when the Raptor 3 based craft are flying.

No, it's going to be 100 t to orbit with Raptor 3 engines, on a slightly stretched v3 stack (to fly for the first time in Q1 next year). The current v2 stack, the last of which flew in the 11th test, is allegedly maxing out at 35 t to orbit: