Quarterly risk assessment of the occupational pensions sector
The IORP risk dashboard, based on individual occupational pensions regulatory reporting, summarises the main risks and vulnerabilities in the IORPs sector of the European Economic Area (EEA) for defined contributions (DC) and defined benefits (DB) pension schemes.
It includes a set of risk indicators covering risk categories, such as
- market and credit risks,
- liquidity risks,
- reserve & funding risks,
- ESG risks, and
- cyber risks.
October 2025 IORP Risk Dashboard
Key observations:
The October 2025 Risk Dashboard on Institutions for Occupational Retirement Provision (IORPs) - based on Q2 2025 pension reporting data and end of September 2025 market data - shows all risk categories at medium levels amid the uncertain geopolitical environment.
Despite the potential impacts of tariffs, expansionary fiscal measures and ongoing geopolitical instability macroeconomic risks remain at a medium level. GDP growth expectations for the next four quarters have been revised upwards. Credit risks show a modest tightening in sovereign and corporate bonds spreads by end-September, suggesting limited reaction to political tensions thus far. Market and asset return risks eased from high to medium level with lower volatility in the bond and equity markets at end-September 2025, partially offsetting detachments between valuations and fundamentals.
In terms of asset return risks, IORPs’ portfolio performance was positive in 2024. Liquidity risks are showing a decreasing trend given the positive developments in IORPs’ derivative positions in Q2 2025. In terms of reserve and funding risks, the financial position of defined benefit IORPs strengthened by mid-2025. Digitalisation & cyber risks are at a medium level, albeit with an increasing likelihood of materialisation amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and the uncertainty they bring.