National Bureau of Economic Research

University student presence—not Gen-z population, not educated urban adults—predicts where protests start and also how they diffuse into an off-campus uprising, from Sultan Mehmood and Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak https://lnkd.in/eWjhsDNE

Using LLMs as synthetic survey respondents finds that institutions report weaker green tastes yet greener portfolio tilts than retail investors, citing outside pressure, from Xindi He and Lubos Pastor https://lnkd.in/eC_c8Uhn

The same inflation news can lead professional forecasters to revise stock return expectations differently, depending on their narratives, from Christian Conrad, Julius Theodor Schoelkopf, Michael Weber, and Frank Brueckbauer https://lnkd.in/ex-GaKph

Post-Covid-19 inflation was predominantly driven by unexpectedly strong demand forces, both in the United States and in the Euro Area, from Domenico Giannone and Giorgio Primiceri https://lnkd.in/e-Rd7v9U

Self-censorship on college campuses is not simply about being conservative: students with moderate views self-censor the most, due to differences in topic saliency and confidence, from Peter Arcidiacono, Cory Dowd, and Matthew Lilley https://lnkd.in/eckvD_4E

How mission-oriented R&D can give shape to new industries: WWII radar R&D produced knowledge, human capital, and an architecture that provided a foundation for commercial entry, from Daniel P. Gross and Maria P. Roche https://lnkd.in/e45Rdi4v

Presenting a new interest rate parity relation and show that it plays a major role in the important agency debt markets, from Matthias Fleckenstein, Sven Klingler, and Francis A. Longstaff https://lnkd.in/eR8zPw4N

Analyzing optimal tariffs in a dynamic version of the Venables (1987) framework with a time-to-build lag in firm creation, from Christoph Boehm, Andrei A. Levchenko, and Wei Xiang https://lnkd.in/eHTWrrjk

Globalization’s frontier shifted from the global factory to the global office. The factory is bloc-shaped, dominated by China. The office is star-shaped, dominated by America, from Richard Baldwin https://lnkd.in/e8FvAb2H

How different are two-way fixed effects from modern difference-in-differences estimations? An AI-assisted review of 1,147 staggered adoption specifications finds estimates are highly correlated and sign flips are rare, from Peter Hull https://lnkd.in/enfpHkdh