Overview
The EU agricultural outlook, published once a year, presents the outlook for major EU agricultural markets until 2035. This Commission report is the result of a long-standing cooperation between the Directorate-General for Agriculture and Rural Development and the Joint Research Centre.
It is based on a set of assumptions regarding the macroeconomic environment, the agricultural and trade policy environment, and international market developments from the latest OECD-FAO outlook.
These assumptions imply relatively smooth market developments while markets tend to be much more volatile. Therefore, the outlook is not a forecast. More precisely, the projections correspond to average trends that agricultural markets are expected to follow in a given macroeconomic environment, if policies were to remain unchanged.
Latest issue
The Medium-term outlook report provides an overview of the medium-term prospects for major EU agricultural markets, income and environment until 2035.
About the report
According to the EU Agricultural Outlook report, EU agriculture is expected to sustain its high level of productivity, despite challenges including climate change and the availability and affordability of inputs. The EU is projected to maintain its high level of self-sufficiency and enhance its trade performance in several commodities, especially concerning those of high added value, in the wake of an increased intensification of global competition regarding the export of basic commodities. EU agri-food trade is expected to remain an important contributor to global food security.
An aging EU population is expected to keep protein intake slightly higher compared to its current level, with a growing preference for dairy products, fish and poultry.
The value of EU agricultural output is projected to grow steadily contributing to an increase in real agricultural income per worker over the outlook. Labour productivity growth is expected to be the main driver of EU productivity.
For the first time, the EU Agricultural Outlook report includes a disaggregated analysis of economic and environmental projections for EU market-oriented farms by size and farm types, obtained using the IFM-CAP farm-level model, calibrated to Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) farm-level data. Based on this work, the structural changes in the EU farming sector are expected to continue shaping the economic and environmental performance of the sector. Overall farm economic viability will remain closely tied to farm economic size, as on average, larger farms are expected to experience better income prospects than smaller ones. The overall environmental impact of EU farms is expected to improve, with a reduction in both greenhouse gas emissions and the surplus of nitrogen.
This EU Agricultural Outlook presents two environmental aspects along with market projections: crop diversity and pesticides. Expectations are for crop diversity at regional level in the EU to see minimal changes by 2035. Overall pesticide use in the EU is projected to decrease. This decline is projected to be driven by both lower pesticide-use intensity (kg/ha), and a reduction in the total area dedicated to crops (mainly cereals and other arable crops).
While the general policy, macro and climate environment are considered stable, leading to steady projections, these drivers are important sources of uncertainty and volatility. To understand their possible implications, the EU Agricultural Outlook report provides an assessment of uncertainties, depicting how volatility in energy prices, GDP, inflation, and exchange rates can impact production costs, consumer purchasing power, and trade competitiveness.
Data tables with detailed information on market projections are visualised and accessible on the Agri-food data portal as well as on the data portal of the Joint Research Centre in the form of Sankey diagrams.
