Quality indicators show that revisions to the European aggregates of the short-term business statistics (STS) indicators are generally limited and arise mainly from the rebasing from base year 2015 to base year 2021 for the January 2024 reference period. Among the 5 STS indicators with news release (industrial producer prices, volume of sales in retail trade, industrial production, production in construction, services production), industrial producer prices appear to be the most stable. The largest revisions are likely to occur in production in construction. Whenever large or medium-sized countries revise their data, the European aggregates are adjusted accordingly. Significant methodological changes, such as classification amendments or base year changes, result in revisions throughout the relevant time series.
This article provides an overview of revisions and revision policy of STS. It is part of a series of background articles addressing various methodological aspects of STS. The first section reviews past evidence on revisions to STS data. The second explains the main reasons for revisions and draws general conclusions about the quality of STS indicators based on the revision analysis. The final section outlines how the European statistical system (ESS) guidelines on revision policy have been applied in STS.
Revisions of STS principal European economic indicators (PEEIs) - Main statistical findings
To observe economic and financial developments in the EU and euro area, a set of Principal European economic indicators (PEEIs) has been identified. STS delivers 8 of these indicators:
- industrial production (volume)*
- industrial producer prices*
- industrial import prices
- production in construction (volume)*
- volume of sales in retail trade*
- services production*
- services producer prices
- building permits indicators
The PEEIs marked with an asterisk (*) are covered by a monthly Eurostat news release. This section evaluated the reliability of the monthly year-on-year growth rates for those PEEIs in the EU and euro area that are covered by thew news release.
The following quality indicators are calculated: mean absolute revision (MAR(L)), relative mean absolute revision (RMAR(L)) and mean revision (MR(L)). They are defined as:
<math>MAR(L) = \frac{1}{n} \sum_{t=1}^{n} |X_{L_t} - X_{0_t}|</math>
<math>RMAR(L) = \frac{\sum_{t=1}^{n} |X_{L_t} - X_{0_t}|}{\sum_{t=1}^{n} |X_{L_t}|}</math>
<math>MR(L) = \frac{1}{n} \sum_{t=1}^{n} (X_{L_t} - X_{0_t})</math>
with <math>t = 1,...,n </math> denoting the number of reference periods, <math>X_{L_t}</math> the latest available revision of the growth rate for reference period <math>t</math> and <math>X_{0_t}</math> the first release for reference period <math>t</math>. For monthly data, it is recommended to use 36 reference periods. It should be noted that revisions occur mainly between the first and second release. In this case, the later available revisions is equivalent to the first revision.
The quality indicators are calculated based on unadjusted year-on-year growth rates for prices and based on calendar adjusted year-on-year growth rates for prices and based on calendar adjusted year-on-year growth rates for turnover and production. The year-on-year growth rates are calculated as:
<math>X_t = \frac{I_t-I_{t-1}}{I_{t-1}} \times 100</math>
where <math>I_t</math> is defined as index data at time <math>t</math>.
MAR(L) gives the mean of the absolute revisions between the initially published and revised growth rate. It should be small in comparison with the revised growth rate. A high MAR indicates a poor accuracy of the initial publication.
RMAR(L) puts the absolute revision in relation to the value of the revised growth rate. Thus, it makes the MAR comparable across indicators, i.e. it takes into account that one percentage point (pp) revision is to be judged differently for a growth rate of 1% than for a growth rate of 10%. As in the case of MAR, a high RMAR also indicates a poor accuracy of the first release.
MR(L) is the mean of the revisions between the initially published and the revised growth rate. It should be zero or close to zero as upward and downward revisions should cancel each other out to a certain degree.
The quality indicators for the 5 STS indicators subject to a news release are shown in Table 1 for EU aggregates and in Table 2 for euro area aggregates. Since the recommendation is to use 36 reference periods, the time period from January 2023 (reference month) to December 2025 (reference month) is considered in this article. Please note that the first news release of services production was published in April 2024 for January 2024 (reference month). For this reason, the quality indicators for services production are based on 24 reference periods, i.e. from January 2024 (reference month) to December 2025 (reference month) instead of 36 reference periods.
The quality indicators are calculated for changes between the first and latest available release (columns “MAR(36)”, “RMAR(36)”, “MR(36)”) and for changes between the first and second data release (=first revision, columns “MAR(1)”, “RMAR(1)”, “MR(1)”). In STS the revisions are generally the highest with the second data release (routine revisions), however methodological changes can also cause data revisions with later data releases. Please refer to section 2 for more information on reasons for revisions in STS.
The tables below show that the accuracy of the first release is the highest for industrial producer prices and the poorest for production in construction both for EU (Table 1) and euro area aggregates (Table 2). For volume of retail trade, the quality indicators obtained based on the first and the second release are close to the quality indicators based on the first and the latest release. Thus, revisions mainly take place with the second data release. For the other indicators, revisions occur mainly with later releases. The rebasing from base year 2015 to 2021 took place in the observed period, this had an irregular impact on the revisions.
Table 1: Quality indicators for EU aggregates, until December 2025 reference period
| Indicator | MAR(1) | MAR(36) | RMAR(1) | RMAR(36) | MR(1) | MR(36) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial producer prices | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.3 |
| Volume of retail trade | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| Industrial production | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| Production on construction | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.7 | -0.2 | 0.1 |
| Services production | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.4 | -0.1 | -0.3 |
Source: Eurostat sts_inppd_m, sts_trutu_m, sts_inpr_m, sts_copr_m and sts_sepr_m
Table 2: Quality indicators for euro area aggregates, until December 2025 reference period
| Indicator | MAR(1) | MAR(36) | RMAR(1) | RMAR(36) | MR(1) | MR(36) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial producer prices | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.3 |
| Volume of retail trade | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| Industrial production | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| Production on construction | 0.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.9 | -0.1 | 0.2 |
| Services production | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.4 | -0.1 | -0.4 |
Source: Eurostat sts_inppd_m, sts_trutu_m, sts_inpr_m, sts_copr_m and sts_sepr_m
In the following figures, revision tracks are used to illustrate the results of Table 1. The figures show the values of the EU year-on-year growth rates in the consecutive monthly releases of the STS indicators. Five indicators are presented, volume of industrial producer prices (domestic) (Figure 1), sales in retail trade (Figure 2), industrial production (Figure 3), production in construction (Figure 4) and services production (Figure 5). The y-axis shows the value of the selected year-on-year growth rates published each month (e.g. 2023M01 is the growth rate of reference period January 2023 compared to January 2022), while the release dates are depicted on the x-axis. The first data release is two months after the reference period.
According to Table 1, the industrial producer prices indicator is the most stable of the selected PEEIs, as also shown in Figure 1. Most year-on-year growth rates are not revised, and when revisions do occur, they are small. One revision is particularly notable: the change between the March 2024 and the April 2024 releases. This revision is the main reason why the quality indicators MAR(36), MR(36) and RMAR(36) perform worse than in previous years. In the April 2024 release, the EU year-on-year growth rate for 2024M09 was revised from -11% to -9.4%, mainly due to an upward revision of a large country.
The revision pattern for the volume of sales in retail trade is also relatively stable and smooth (Figure 2). Most revisions take place with the second data release to correct the initial estimate. Table 2 confirms this finding as the quality indicators MAR(1) and MAR(36), as well as MR(1) and MR(36) and RMAR(1) and RMAR(36), are very close to one another.
The revision paths of the year-on-year growth rates of industrial producer prices and volume of sales in retail trade are relatively stable after the initial revision, whereas the growth rate of industrial production is revised more frequently (Figure 3). As anticipated, revisions stemming from the base year change can be observed in the March 2024 release. Furthermore, the data are revised quite extensively between the November 2024 and the December 2024 releases. This revision is primarily driven by changes reported by one medium-sized country.
As shown in Table 1, construction production records the largest revisions among the selected PEEIs, which is also reflected in Figure 4. The revision to the 2025M04 year-on-year growth rates between the September 2025 and the October 2025 releases is especially striking, shifting from +4.1% to +1.4%. This change is largely attributable to a major revision of a large country. Furthermore, revisions resulting from the base year change introduced in March 2024 are also apparent in Figure 4.
Figure 5 outlines the revision trends for services production, the newest PEEI. The indicator was first published in March 2024, with January 2024 as the reference month. Given that the indicator has only recently been implemented, relatively high level of revisions is to be expected. Across the period from reference month January 2024 to reference month December 2025, two release dates are particularly prominent: November 2024 and December 2025. Both coincide with a level shift in the revision tracks. The substantial revisions affecting reference months from January 2024 to July 2024 in November 2024 can largely be explained by the availability of revised or additional data after a large country changed to the new data requirements. The significant revisions affecting reference months from January 2025 to August 2025 in December 2025 can be attributed to major revisions made by a large country to its data.
What are the reasons for revising short-term business statistics data?
STS data are very often subject to revisions, i.e. changes in the value of statistics that have been published. Revisions can be caused by several reasons:
- Routine revisions of STS are necessary because of late incoming data, seasonal adjustment or regular benchmarking
- Methodological changes and changes of the reference and base year introduce main revisions that may be large in size but take place less frequently and regularly than routine revisions
- Corrections of errors may take place at any moment
Late data
STS publish monthly and quarterly indicators within one to three months after the end of the reference period. To meet these deadlines, STS require early estimations which may have to be revised later when more complete data becomes available. Late data arrival can occur at least at two different levels: First, some respondents of statistical surveys in the Member States send their questionnaires after the national deadlines and the statistical authorities need to estimate the missing data when sending national data to Eurostat. Later, the estimated values are replaced by the more complete data that are re-transmitted to Eurostat. Second, Eurostat often releases its first estimates of the EU / euro area aggregates at the time when some Member States' data are still missing. In STS, small countries often have more time to compile their national data and send them to Eurostat. Later, when all countries have sent their data and some have even revised their estimates, Eurostat revises the European aggregates for the EU and for the euro area.
Seasonal adjustment
STS are adjusted for seasonal effects in order to allow comparing month-on-month or quarter-on-quarter changes whenever indicators are subject to seasonal variation. For example retail sales in December are always higher than in November because of Christmas shopping. To compare December sales with those of November, the regular impact of Christmas has to be removed from the data. The estimation of seasonal effects requires long time series. The mathematical models used to identify seasonal effects work in a way that a new observation can change the seasonal factors applied to the whole time series. Consequently, when the new seasonal factors are applied to the older data, the whole time series may need to be revised. Additionally, an annual (or more frequent) overhaul of seasonal adjustment models is needed to maintain the quality of the models. When models are changed, the adjusted time series are also revised.
Benchmarking
Benchmarking (also called data confrontation or consolidation) is defined as the adjustment of (generally) higher frequency data to take account of more complete lower frequency results, which become available only later. STS can be confronted with structural business statistics, labour statistics or national accounts. Structural business statistics are also used as the basis for the weights of economic activities within the Member States and for the weights of the countries when compiling the European aggregates of STS. They are released more than a year after the end of the reference year, and this has an impact on the updates of weights of STS. Furthermore, several countries use quarterly national accounts, for example in estimating the labour productivity that may be used for compiling monthly production in construction on the basis of hours worked.
Methodological changes
Methodological changes, including changes of definitions and classifications, are important reasons for major revisions. They cause statistics to be redefined so that the results for the old and the new time series are different, if they are even comparable at all. In the latter case, the users need to be informed about the break in series.
Changes in base and reference year
Revisions can also be caused by changes in the base and reference year, which, together with new weighting systems, can alter the paths of time series. Changing the weighting system affects the growth rates of the European aggregates, if the weights of the different countries change considerably. The change of the reference year only means that all values of the time series are divided by the average of the new reference year. This can change the index levels for time series, but it does not have an impact on the growth rates.
Corrections
Alterations to the data may also stem from correcting errors. Unfortunately, it is not possible to entirely rule out errors during the compilation process in the Member States and in Eurostat, and the correction of such errors requires revisions of the published statistical results. The correction of Member States' data leads also to corrections of the European aggregates. Obviously, corrections of errors cannot be planned in advance, but it is possible to inform the users on how errors are dealt with. Significant errors need to be corrected as soon as possible.
Release and revision policy of short-term business statistics
In February 2012 the European Statistical System Committee (ESSC) approved guidelines on how to deal with the various types of revisions for the PEEIs. The release and revision policy of the European STS aggregates are generally in line the the ESS guidelines on revision policy for PEEIs. In order to comply with the guidelines, the revision policy of STS is as follows:
- European aggregates are generally released and revised once per month
- European aggregates of STS labour indicators and construction prices or costs are revised when new information becomes available
- National data is revised whenever new information becomes available
This revision policy concerns only routine revisions. Detected errors in national data or in European aggregates are corrected immediately. Users will be informed about forthcoming major revisions (e.g. due to methodological changes) in news releases and on Eurostat's website.
The calendar with the STS release dates is published on the Eurostat website. For indicators subject to a monthly news release, the European aggregates are revised on the same dates. For other STS PEEIs, the release and revision dates are identical and lie within a few working days after the end of the deadline for new data transmissions from the Member States.
Conclusions
The revision analysis shows clear differences in stability across the selected PEEIs. The industrial producer prices indicator is the most stable, with only limited and generally small revisions. The volume of sales in retail trade also displays a stable revision pattern, with most changes occurring at the second release. By contrast, industrial production is revised more frequently, including notable revisions linked to the base year change in March 2024 and country-driven updates late in 2024. Construction production stands out as the least stable indicator, recording the largest revisions over the period, including a particularly substantial correction in October 2025. Finally, services production, as the newest PEEI, shows comparatively larger revisions, which is not surprising at this early stage of implementation, especially where new reporting requirements and major country revisions have affected the data.
When large or medium-sized countries revise their data, the European aggregates are also revised. Major methodological changes, for example changes of classifications or the base year understandably introduce revisions to the entire length of the concerned time series. Overall, the quality indicators show that revisions of the European STS aggregates are moderate although higher than in the past years mainly due to the base year change in 2024.
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