How prepared is the EU for another migration crisis? Reassessing the situation in the wake of the Iran conflict and the Sudanese civil war

The Iran conflict and the civil war in Sudan have sparked fears that the EU could face a repeat of the 2015 'migration crisis'. This crisis led the EU to allocate more resources to secure its borders, adopt measures such as the pact on migration and asylum, and pursue agreements and arrangements with third countries to boost returns and prevent irregular migration. Several countries near Sudan and Iran are currently hosting more refugees than in 2015. By working together with third countries, the EU has achieved some success in reducing irregular migration, but the arrangements have been criticised for their lack of transparency and impact on human rights. At the same time, many EU countries struggle to process the volume of asylum applications and returning irregular migrants in large numbers. Against this backdrop, the EU is developing new legislation on migration. However, it may be challenging for EU countries to reach a consensus on granting temporary protection. Additionally, regularisation is not typically granted to new asylum applicants.The Crisis and Force Majeure Regulation will apply from 1 July 2026, establishing special rules for crisis situations.