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PANAP

Pan-African Network for economic Analysis of Policies

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What is the Pan African Network for Economic Analysis of Policies (PANAP)?

The Pan-African Network for economic Analysis of Policies brings together academic, research and institutional partners that develop research on agro-economics and policy issues.

It was established in 2019 under the aegis of the African Union (AU) - European Union (EU) partnership.

The network is co-hosted by the European Commission - Joint Research Centre (JRC), the African Union Commission - Agriculture, Rural Development, Blue Economy, and Sustainable Environment (ARBE), and the Forum for Agricultural Research in Africa (FARA).

PANAP

Our mission

PANAP aims to strengthen the liaison between researchers/scientists and policymakers in Africa, and to stimulate their cooperation on selected topics linked to policy priorities that reinforce the stability and enhance the development of African agriculture and food sectors. In particular, the network is conducting research on economic analysis of policies focusing on Africa’s Food Systems and that supports its sustainable transition.

networking

PANAP Objectives

  1. Enhance food and nutrition security, as in the Malabo Declaration - ending hunger in Africa by 2025, and SDG1 – Ending Poverty & SDG2 - Zero Hunger.
  2. Foster scientific communities providing independent, evidence-based scientific support, data/information, and economic analysis of sustainable agrifood systems and related policies.
  3. Support continental, regional and national policymakers in Africa in designing, assessing ex-ante and evaluating ex-post the impacts of agricultural policies.
  4. Serve as a platform for knowledge sharing of micro and macro data, models/economic tools, modelling skills, promote the dissemination of simulation results and create a common knowledge base and practices on the topic of economic analysis of policy.

About this website

Currently hosted within the pages of the Data/Modelling platform of resource economics of the European Commission, this website works as complete and up-to-dated reference of the network's activities. Find here the involved partners and collaborators, the network events, the documents, the news, the scientific publications and policy briefs, the economic modelling tools, and a repository of all the open datasets.

networking

To remain informed on the network activities and events, please subscribe to the PANAP newsletter by filling in the form!

Our navigator allows to explore hundreds of PANAP publications and resources by country, and year or model.

Data and dashboards

Featured contents

DataM flagship products with periodical data updates

Country dashboards

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A one-stop-shop infographics combining data from scattered sources on food/nutrition security and macroeconomics and agro-economics indicators for countries where food security and sustainable agriculture are focal sectors for EU intervention.
Info
Dashboard
Last update: 05/01/2026 | Update frequency: monthly

GHG emissions calculator

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What happens to GHG emissions if exports change? Try this interactive tool to simulate the effects of demand changes on GHG emissions. Tool based on the Social Accounting Matrices. Simulation available for Kenya.
Info
Dashboard
Last update: 21/11/2025 | Update frequency: unknown

Jobs calculator

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What happens to employment if exports change? Try this interactive tool to simulate the effects of demand changes on jobs. Tool based on the Social Accounting Matrices. Simulation available for 30+ countries, including all EU, the UK, and some Africans.
Info
Dashboard
Last update: 20/11/2025 | Update frequency: unknown

Social Accounting Matrices - Africa

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A SAM is a database that records all transactions taking place in an economy over a specific period. The Pan African Network for Economic Analysis of Policies (PANAP) produces and updates the SAMs of several African Countries (8, ongoing)
Info
Dashboard
Last update: 20/11/2025 | Update frequency: irregular

Analysis on the African Continental Free Trade Area

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The African Continental Free Trade Area aims boosting intra-African economics. The Pan African Network for Economic Analysis of Policies provides analysis on the tariff negotiations, macroeconomic, trade, sectorial, and social impacts.
Info
Dashboard
Last update: 23/10/2024 | Update frequency: irregular

Ad-hoc contents

Datasets linked to terminated works, including studies periodically repeated.

SAM - Niger - 2019

Social Accounting Matrix for Niger for 2019, estimated by JRC (2025)
Info
Dashboard
Query
Download
(706 KB)
Last update: 20/11/2025

SAM - South Africa 2019

Social Accounting Matrix for South Africa for 2019, estimated by JRC (2025)
Info
Dashboard
Query
Download
(2 MB)
Last update: 20/11/2025

SAM - Nigeria - 2019

Social Accounting Matrix for Nigeria for 2019, estimated by JRC (2024)
Info
Dashboard
Query
Download
(231 KB)
Last update: 14/02/2025

Potential impacts of the African Continental Free Trade Area on agri-food sectors and food security in Ghana

DEMETRA CGE results of the ex-ante assessment of AfCFTA impacts on the Ghanaian economy
Info
Dashboard
Last update: 04/10/2024

The impacts of the Africa Continental Free Trade Area on the Nigerian economy

The dataset contains the DEMETRA CGE results of the ex-ante assessment of AfCFTA impacts on the Nigerian economy
Info
Dashboard
Last update: 03/09/2024

Food consumption in West Africa

This dashboard provides information on food consumption of households in Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo.
Info
Dashboard
Last update: 28/08/2024

AfCFTA tariff offer analysis

Last update: 14/05/2024

The impacts of the Africa Continental Free Trade Area on the Tanzanian economy

The report contains a country-level analysis regarding the African Continental Free Trade Area impacts on the Tanzanian economy using the JRC-DEMETRA model
Info
Dashboard
Last update: 21/03/2024

SAM - Tanzania - 2015

Social Accounting Matrix for Tanzania for 2015, estimated by JRC (2023)
Info
Dashboard
Query
Download
(384 KB)
Last update: 31/01/2024

Plan Sénégal Emergent 2019-2023

Arguments scientifiques à l'appui d'options politiques en faveur du secteur agricole pour la deuxième phase du Plan Sénégal Emergent (PSE) et de son Plan d'Actions Prioritaires (PAP) en 2019-2023.
Info
Dashboard
Last update: 15/01/2024

FPCA-II. Food Price Crowdsourcing Africa-expansion

FPCA - From mobile app-based crowdsourcing to crowd-trusted food prices in Nigeria: statistical pre-processing and post-sampling.
Info
Download
3
Last update: 05/01/2023

Sustainable Cocoa Event 2022

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Sustainable Cocoa Side-Event @ 2022 FAO Science & Innovation forum
Info
Dashboard
Last update: 19/09/2022

The impacts of the Africa Continental Free Trade Area on the Kenyan economy

The report contains a country-level analysis regarding the African Continental Free Trade Area impacts on the Kenyan economy. It presents a detailed assessment of the free trade area effects on economics sectors, households and government revenue.
Info
Dashboard
Last update: 15/02/2022

Potential effects of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) on African agri-food sectors and food security

This report complements previous continental economy-wide assessments of the impacts of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) by providing a more comprehensive description of the trade agreement’s effects on food systems and food security.
Info
Dashboard
Last update: 24/11/2021

SAM - Ghana - 2015

Social Accounting Matrix for Ghana for 2015, estimated by JRC (2021)
Info
Dashboard
Query
Download
(168 KB)
Last update: 31/05/2021

SAM - Ethiopia - 2015/16

Social Accounting Matrix for Ethiopia for 2015/16, estimated by JRC (2020)
Info
Dashboard
Query
Download
(105 KB)
Last update: 08/01/2020

RJOC - Ethiopia

Study that provides quantitative evidences supporting policy options for the Rural Job Opportunity Creation Strategy (RJOCS) in Ethiopia
Info
Dashboard
Last update: 26/11/2019

Food Price Crowdsourcing Africa

“Food Price Crowdsourcing Africa” (FPCA) is a research project for understanding food price changes along the food chain while strengthening agricultural and market information systems through mobile phone technology and citizens' participation.
Info
Dashboard
Last update: 23/07/2019

ASGTS - Kenya

Study (JRC & FAO-MAFAP, 2018) to explore ex-ante socioeconomic impacts of alternative agricultural policies, driving to development options recommended to support the final decision of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries (MoALF) of Kenya
Info
Dashboard
Last update: 26/06/2018

Publications

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    Export-import assessment of Tanzania's produce market post-African Continental Free Trade Area agreements: The case of fruits and vegetables

    Year: 2025

    Authors: Msemo, EM; Hella, JP; Mgeni, C; Maskaeva, A; Msafiri, M; Kinyondo, G; Nechifor, V; El Meligi, A; Boysen, O; Simola, A; Ferreira, V

    Journal: South African Journal of Economics

    Abstract: Forming the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is a key step towards Africa's economic integration, promoting intra-African trade and sustainable growth. This study employs the Dynamic Equilibrium Model for Economic Development, Resources and Agriculture (DEMETRA) developed by the European Commission's Joint Research Centre. DEMETRA is calibrated using Tanzania's 2015 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) to assess the impact of the AfCFTA on the country's fruits and vegetables subsectors. Throughout the simulation period, fruit imports in Tanzania are projected to increase by 65.7%, reaching 25.2 billion Tanzanian shillings (Tshs) in value, while exports, particularly under the revenue enhancement (REV) schedule, are expected to grow to 128.9 billion Tshs in value. Vegetable imports are expected to increase in value by 5.3%, while exports are projected to decline by 1.5%. The study encourages authorities to strategically utilize the revenue enhancement (REV) schedule to optimize export profits and recommends enhancing agricultural infrastructure and resources to support sustainable export growth.

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    Trade policies for low-carbon development in developing countries: Insights from Kenya

    Year: 2025

    Authors: Mwatu, SM; Woldie Yalew, A; Nechifor, V; Sahoo, A

    Journal: Development Policy Review

    Abstract: Motivation: Greenhouse gas emissions from the transport, energy, and industrial sectors are rising in Kenya, with projections indicating that energy production and consumption will be the leading sources of emissions by 2030. Purpose: This study aims to examine the potential role of energy-efficiency-improving low-carbon technologies in transitioning the economy towards low-carbon development. Approach and methods: It assesses the increased supply of energy-efficiency-improving machinery as an intermediate input to reduce energy consumption to the macroeconomy and environment in domestic and international financing scenarios using a computable general equilibrium model for Kenya. Findings: Overall, increasing energy efficiency and improving machinery and equipment under the two financing options has a positive impact on gross domestic product, exports, imports, domestic production, and household consumption. The economic and environmental effects of financing through international support are more pronounced compared to those of financing through domestic resources. Policy implications: The results of the study imply that developing countries such as Kenya can consider and explore different trade policies and instruments to support their path to low-carbon development. This could include reducing or removing tariffs on low-carbon technology machinery. Advanced world economies, for their part, could finance the supply of low-carbon technologies by making these available at lower cost.

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    Will intra-African trade reach a new level? Opportunities, challenges, and pathways forward for the African Continental Free Trade Agreement and its effects on food security

    Year: 2025

    Authors: Wassie, MA; Kiiza, A; Boysen, O; Kornher, L

    Journal: Global Food Journal

    Abstract: It has been more than four years since the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) was officially launched on January 1st, 2021. The launch of one of the largest free trade zones in the world, covering a market of over 1.3 billion people in 54 countries, was accompanied by great hope that it represents a transformative milestone in Africa's economic integration journey increasing intra-African trade by 53%. After close to five years, it is time to take stock of what the AfCFTA has achieved so far and what challenges its implementation currently faces.

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    AfCFTA: Updated Analysis of Trade, Economic Outcomes, and Policy Implications

    Year: 2025

    Authors: Simola, A; Boysen, O; Nechifor, V; Ferrari, E

    Journal: Publications Office of the European Union

    Abstract: This study provides a comprehensive and updated analysis of the potential impacts of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). Utilizing the MAGNET model, based on GTAP version 7 and database version 11C, this research incorporates new information such as actual tariff offers, revised Non-Tariff Measure (NTM) modelling, and updated baseline projections to offer a more accurate assessment than previous studies. The simulations indicate positive economic outcomes for Africa, including increases in GDP, household disposable income, and intra-African trade. While tariff reductions alone have a modest impact, the reduction of NTMs is crucial for achieving substantial benefits, with spillover effects to extra-African trade further amplifying these gains. The study also highlights that the AfCFTA is expected to foster industrialization in Africa, with manufacturing output showing the most significant increases among sectors. However, the analysis also points to regional disparities in economic benefits and potential challenges such as a decrease in tariff revenues for some countries. The findings underscore the importance of complementary policies, effective NTM reduction, and strategic management of public revenue streams to ensure equitable and sustainable growth across the continent. Future research is suggested to explore the long-term social and environmental impacts, as well as the institutional and regulatory frameworks necessary for the agreement's full implementation.

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    Agroforestry as a climate change adaptation strategy: Evidence from Ghana's cocoa sector

    Year: 2025

    Authors: Wätzold, MYL; Krumbiegel, K; Tillie, P; Wollni, M

    Journal: Agricultural Systems

    Abstract: Context: In sub-Saharan Africa, where most farmers rely on rain-fed agriculture, climate change poses serious threats. Agroforestry offers a promising adaptation strategy, with well-documented ecological and economic benefits. Yet, evidence on its role in enhancing household-level resilience to adverse weather events, such as drought, remains limited. Objective: We assess how decreases in rainfall affect cocoa yield among agroforestry adopters and non-adopters in Ghana and examine whether these effects vary by regional climatic suitability. Methods: We combine a two-wave panel data set of 365 cocoa-producing households with satellite-based climate data. We use a correlated random effects model to estimate the differential effects of reduced rainfall on yield by agroforestry status. To test for heterogeneity, we re-estimate the model for two subsamples located in climatically suitable and less suitable cocoa-growing regions. Results and conclusions: We find that on average, agroforestry adopters are less severely affected by reduced rainfall. A one-millimeter decrease in rainfall significantly reduces yield by 2.17 kg/ha for adopters and 2.84 kg/ha for non-adopters. However, when disaggregating between regions, this effect only holds in climatically suitable regions. In less suitable, drier regions, we do not find any significant effects. Our findings suggest that agroforestry could be used as a strategy for adapting to climate change, although more research is needed to understand the conditions under which it would be most effective. Significance: We are among the first to use household panel data to econometrically assess the effects of reduced rainfall on yield based on agroforestry adoption in the cocoa sector.

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    On the positive economic impacts of port infrastructure development and seaborne trade efficiencies in Sub-Saharan Africa: the case of Senegal

    Year: 2025

    Authors: Sahoo, A; Nechifor, V; Ferrari, E; Ferreira, V; Amany, DSD

    Journal: Maritime Economics & Logistics

    Abstract: Inefficient port infrastructures is one of the challenges facing Sub-Saharan Africa, particularly as regards the West African region’s economic progress. Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, the paper examines how improving port infrastructure in Senegal can increase the potential of seaborne trade, and accelerate economic and social development in the country and the wider region. Despite Senegal's strategic location along the Trans-Saharan trade route in West Africa, infrastructural limitations pose challenges to port capacity. Our findings suggest that improving port infrastructure can increase port productivity, leading to a reduction in costs of imported food products and domestic inputs. As a result, the country's competitiveness in international markets would be enhanced and could stimulate the production of cash crops, industrial food, and chemical products. This would lead to increased food supply and improved purchasing power, supporting the country's food security. Results show that increased efficiencies in maritime exports and imports lead to an overall increase in economic activity, resulting in significant GDP growth, improved welfare, and a reduction in poverty incidence. This growth can be attributed to higher exports and greater availability of imported intermediate inputs at lower prices, making exports more competitive in the global market as export prices decrease.

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    The impact of access to agricultural advisory services on input use and farm performance: Evidence from Senegal

    Year: 2025

    Authors: Ricome, A; Faye, A; Sadibou Fall, C; Gomez y Paloma, S

    Journal: AgriBusiness

    Abstract: Performant agricultural advisory services (AAS) in Africa are crucial for improving the agricultural productivity and food security of the farm households. Yet, evidence-based study on the impacts of AAS on farm performance are scarce, especially in West African countries. This study evaluates the impact of access to AAS on input use and farm performance in Senegal, employing the instrumental variable and control function approaches accounting for selection bias. The approaches are also employed to several sub-samples to see if the impacts are heterogeneous across crop types and fertilizer use, and matching techniques are applied to test the robustness of the results. Results show that the highest positive impact of AAS is on yield, while the impacts on gross margin and improved seeds uptake are very modest. Access to AAS has no effect on fertilizer uptake. It also finds that AAS impacts positively cereal production and farmers using no fertilizer but has no effect on the legume and horticultural crop production and on farmers using fertilizer. Given the Senegalese government and donors have put a lot of effort into developing an efficient AAS system, a consideration of the identified weaknesses is required to improve its efficiency. [EconLit Citations: Q12, Q16]

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    Application of environmentally extended social accounting matrix based indicators to address socio-economic and environmental targets in Cameroon

    Year: 2025

    Authors: El Meligi, A; Ferreira, V; Nechifor, V; Ferrari, E

    Journal: Environmental Impact Assessment Review

    Abstract: Achieving social, economic, and environmental targets poses significant transitional challenges, requiring countries to adapt to new growth patterns. Cameroon's development strategies prioritize the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals, focusing on economic growth, formal job creation, and poverty reduction while simultaneously targeting greenhouse gas emissions decreases. To effectively promote policies aligned with these goals, it is necessary to develop specific databases and indicators. This study presents an application of an Environmentally Extended Social Accounting Matrix based indicators for Cameroon: the ‘Employment Intensity of Carbon’ (EIC). This multidimensional multiplier indicator identifies the quantity of employment generated and the associated emissions produced by an increase in demand. The Hypothetical Extraction Method is then proposed to identify and rank relevant sectors. On the basis of the Nationally Determined Contribution, a case study is then presented to demonstrate the indicator's usefulness in providing evidence-based results on achieving environmental sustainability targets and its implications for employment. The analysis highlights which economic sectors need to be improved to achieve the emission reduction targets with the least economic and social impact.

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    Les périmètres irrigués au Niger [Irrigated perimeters in Niger]

    Year: 2025

    Authors: Cockx, L; Mamadou, A; Elhadji, S; Tillie, P

    Journal: Publications Office of the European Union

    Abstract: L’irrigation est souvent considérée comme un levier important d’accroissement de la productivité agricole et la lutte contre la pauvreté et l’insécurité alimentaire au Niger. Par conséquent, la réalisation et la réhabilitation des Aménagements Hydro-Agricoles (AHA) revêt une importance capitale pour l’augmentation de la productivité et production agricole nigérienne. À partir de données provenant d’une enquête auprès 1 829 producteurs exploitant des parcelles au sein des 20 périmètres irrigués répartis dans 6 régions du Niger, cette étude vise à analyser le fonctionnement et la gouvernance des AHA. En complément des entretiens avec les producteurs, l’enquête a également recueilli des informations auprès des représentants des organisations chargées de la gestion de l’eau d’irrigation (des sociétés coopératives et associations des usagers de l’eau d’irrigation). Les résultats de l’étude montrent clairement l’existence des problèmes d’accès et de distribution de l’eau. Environ un quart des agriculteurs n’a pas été en mesure d’irriguer au sein du périmètre irrigué au cours des 12 mois précédant l’étude. Par conséquent, 15% des producteurs appartenant aux AHA ne pratiquent aucune activité agricole en saison sèche. En outre, à l’exception de ceux des périmètres de Niamey et de Tillabéri, la plupart des producteurs n’ont pas accès à l’irrigation au cours de la saison humide, ce qui les rend entière tributaires des pluies, souvent insuffisantes en fin de cycle et engendre des pertes de récolte. Par ailleurs, dans les cas où l’eau d’irrigation est disponible, sa distribution semble loin d’être optimale, avec des situations d’insuffisance ou d’excès. Ces problèmes sont liés à la dégradation et au mauvais fonctionnement des infrastructures, mais également de gouvernance défaillante. La participation des producteurs à la prise de décision semble très limitée, ce qui augmente le risque d’une distribution d’eau inefficace et mal adaptée aux besoins. En outre, les données de l’étude suggèrent que les exploitants ne sont souvent pas bien informés ou conscients des règles et des systèmes en vigueur. Un renforcement de la communication et la formation des producteurs semble donc nécessaire pour réduire les problèmes d’action collective. Enfin, l’étude montre que, notamment dans les périmètres rizicoles, une agriculture intensive à forte utilisation d’intrants est pratiquée. Bien que la productivité du riz soit généralement élevée, d’autres cultures donnent également de bons résultats, ce qui pose la question de l’opportunité de réserver certains périmètres exclusivement à la production de riz. [Irrigation is often considered an important lever for increasing agricultural productivity and combating poverty and food insecurity in Niger. Consequently, the implementation and rehabilitation of Hydro-Agricultural Developments (AHA) are of paramount importance for enhancing Niger's agricultural productivity and production. Based on data from a survey of 1,829 producers operating plots within 20 irrigated perimeters across six regions of Niger, this study aims to analyze the functioning and governance of AHAs. In addition to interviews with producers, the survey also gathered information from representatives of organizations responsible for managing irrigation water (cooperative societies and associations of irrigation water users). The study's results clearly indicate the existence of problems related to water access and distribution.]

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    Diet quality rather than caloric intake associated with labour wages in Kenya

    Year: 2025

    Authors: Custodio-Cerezales, E; Jiménez-Calvo, S; Ramos, MP; Sartori, M; Ferrari, E

    Journal: Food Security

    Abstract: Malnutrition, in all its forms, poses a significant threat to human development and economic growth. Consequently, enhancing food security and consumption is a moral and social imperative for fostering development. Despite the substantial evidence on the relationship between caloric intake and labour productivity, research on the connection between labour productivity and diet quality, measured by micronutrient intake, is scarce. This paper, focusing on Kenya, estimates the linkages between micronutrient intake and labour productivity, measured by household labour income. The daily intakes of energy and micronutrients per adult male equivalent at the household level is computed employing food consumption data collected in the 2015–2016 Kenya Integrated Household Budget Survey. Econometric results show that daily micronutrient (haem iron, zinc, folate, calcium, vitamins B2 and A) intakes are significantly and positively correlated with labour productivity. The quality of diets, reflected by micronutrient intakes, has a bigger impact on labour productivity than the daily energy consumed, measured by caloric intake. This paper contributes to the nutrition–productivity literature and provides a basis for designing policies to improve the nutritional quality of diets.

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Collaborators

CNRA - Côte d'Ivoire

The National Agricultural Research Center (CNRA) of Côte d'Ivoire, provides a public research service with private-type management. It places at the heart of its actions, the sustainable increase in production and productivity in the agricultural and agro-industrial fields.

CNRA - Côte d'Ivoire logo

COMESA

The Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa

COMESA logo

IITA

The International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA) is a non-profit institution
that generates agricultural innovations to meet Africa’s most pressing challenges of hunger,
malnutrition, poverty, and natural resource degradation. Working with various partners across
sub-Saharan Africa, we improve livelihoods, enhance food and nutrition security,
increase employment, and preserve natural resource integrity.ly.

IITA logo

INS - Niger

The "Insitute National de la Statistique" of Niger coordinates the activities of the National Statistical System (SSN), produces statistical information following international standards, and ensures the conservation and, where appropiate, the dissemination of data colleted by all services of the SSN. It also promotes the development of methodologies and applied research in the fields of the collection, processing and dissemination of statistical data.

INS - Niger logo

ISSER - Ghana

The Institute of Statistical, Social and Economic Research (ISSER) currently serves as the research wing under the College of Humanities, University of Ghana and engages in a number of policy relevant research whose findings are intended to help policy makers on the best policy decisions to make for national development.

MAG/EL - Niger

Ministère de l'Agriculture et de l'Élevage de la République du Niger - Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock of the Republic of Niger

.

MAG/EL - Niger logo

MINADER - Cameroun

République du Cameroun Ministre de l'Agriculture et du Développement Rural - Ministry of agriculture and rural development of Cameroun.

MINADER - Côte d’Ivoire

République de Côte d’Ivoire Ministre de l'Agriculture et du Développement Rural - Ministry of agriculture and rural development of the Ivory Coast.

MINADER - Côte d’Ivoire logo

NILDS

The National Institute for Legislative and Democratic Studies (NILDS) is an organ of the Nigerian National Assembly established by an Act of Parliament. NILDS supports the sustenance of dynamic and effective Legislature in Nigeria (at Federal, State and Local level), and the ECOWAS sub-region.

Models

DEMETRA

Developed by the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, DEMETRA, is is a single-country, recursive dynamic CGE economic model, used to analyse policy scenarios on agricultural economics, food security, fiscal policy and water nexus issues in developing countries.

DEMETRA official page

FSSIM-Dev

The Farming System Simulator for Developing Countries (FSSIM-Dev) is one of the decision-making tools developed by the JRC to provide independent evidence-based policy analysis in the areas of food and nutrition security and sustainable agriculture, specifically in sub-Saharan Africa.

FSSIM-Dev official page

MAGNET

MAGNET (Modular Applied GeNeral Equilibrium Tool) is a global general equilibrium model that has been widely used to simulate the impacts of agricultural, trade, land and bioenergy policies on the global economy with a particular focus on the impacts on land use, agricultural prices, nutrition and household food security.

Partners

ANSD - Senegal

The Agence Nationale de Statistique et de la Démographie (ANSD) of Senegal is an administrative structure endowed with legal personality and management autonomy and placed under the authority of the Minister in charge of Statistics.

AU

The African Union (AU) is a continental body consisting of the 55 member states that make up the countries of the African Continent. It was officially launched in 2002 as a successor to the Organisation of African Unity (OAU, 1963-1999)

African Union logo

 

The AU is part of the coordinating body of the PANAP network

BOAD

The West African Development Bank (BOAD) is the common development finance institution of the member countries of the West African Monetary Union (WAMU). It was established by an Agreement signed on 14 November 1973, and became operational in 1976. Member countries include Benin, Burkina, Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea Bissau, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo.

CAPEG - Niger

Cellule d’Analyse des Politiques publiques et d’Evaluation de l’action Gouvernementale is an administrative structure created under the Prime Minister, Head of Government. Its main mission is to contribute to strengthening the effectiveness of public action in terms of anticipation and decision-making through the production of knowledge on public policies and the analysis of the performance of government action.

CIRES - Côte d'Ivoire

The mission of the Centre Ivoirien de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (CIRES) consists essentially in:

  • undertaking research activities concerning the economic and social problems of the Ivory Coast and the countries of the Sub-Region.
  • establishing ongoing relationships with as many public or private economic bodies as possible, and publish research on economic and social disciplines.

EIAR - Ethiopia

The Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research (EIAR) aspires to see improved livelihood of all Ethiopians engaged in agriculture, agro-pastoralism, and pastoralism through market-competitive agricultural technologies.

FARA

The Forum for Agricultural Research in Africa (FARA) is the apex continental organization responsible for coordinating and advocating for agricultural research for development (AR4D). FARA serves as the technical arm of the Africa Union Commission on matters concerning agriculture science, technology and innovation.

FARA logo

FARA is part of the coordinating body of the PANAP network

INRAN - Niger

The Niger National Institute of Agricultural Research (INRAN) is Niger’s principal agricultural research agency. Administered by the Ministry of Agriculture, INRAN conducts research on crops, livestock, natural resources, socioeconomics, and agricultural engineering.

INRAN - Niger logo

INS - Côte d'Ivoire

Insitute National de la Statistique de la Côte d'Ivoire - National Statistical Institute of the Ivory Coast.

INS - Côte d'Ivoire logo

ISRA - Senegal

The Senegalese Institute of Agricultural Research (ISRA) aims for the design and implementation of research programs on crop, forest, animal and fish production and rural economy. It also looks for the creation of scientific knowledge, the generation of technological innovations and the development of decision-support tools for the improvement of the agricultural sector

Its "Bureau d'analyses macro-économiques" (BAME) is a specialized department s in economics and social sciences research, aiming at better understanding the transformations of the Senegalese rural world.

ISRA - Senegal logo

KIPPRA - Kenya

KIPPRA is the leading institute for Public Policy Research and Analysis in Kenya

KIPPRA - Kenya logo

PSI - Ethiopia

Policy Studies Institute (PSI) is a policy think tank established in November 2018 by the Ethiopian government, engaged in:

  • Economic, social and governance research and policy studies;
  • Bridging research and policymaking;
  • Capacity building and consultancy; and
  • Knowledge dissemination and exchange.

PSI - Ethiopia

SUA - Tanzania

Sokoine University of Agriculture (SUA) is a public University based in Morogoro Tanzania. It is best known for offering courses and programmes widely in a field of Agriculture, Veterinary Science, Forestry, Animal Science, Wildlife Management, Tourism Management, Environmental Science, Food Science, Natural Resources, Nutrition, Rural Development, since its establishment.

Tegemeo Institute of Agricultural Policy and Development

The Institute conducts Research and Analysis on policy in the domain of Agriculture, Rural development, Natural resources and Environment. It aims at addressing micro and macroeconomic policy issues bearing on farming, transportation, processing, marketing, and trade of agricultural products and inputs; sustainability of agricultural systems and natural resources as well as the environment; and commercialization, income growth and food security.

The Western Cape Department of Agriculture

The Western Cape Department of Agriculture provides a wide range of development, research and support services to the agricultural community in the Western Cape. The agricultural sector stimulates economic growth in the province and plays a major role in creating sustainable job opportunities.

Policy briefs

Effects of the African Continental Free Trade Area on Food Security

The African countries are deepening their economic integration by launching the world’s largest free trade area, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). This Policy Insight presents scientific evidence on the impacts of the AfCFTA on agri-food industries and food security in Africa. The AfCFTA deepens African economic integration by boosting intra-African trade throughout the continent. It potentially generates vibrant growth and transformation at scale.

By 2035, the AfCFTA could reduce undernourishment in Africa by 1 million people.

Implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine for the Kenyan economy

The Kenyan economy was significantly affected by the global supply chain disruptions stemming from the Russian invasion. The macroeconomic impacts were largely driven by global fertilizer and fossil fuel price increases. Rural households were nevertheless affected by raising food prices, notably those of vegetable oils. Kenyan Government intervention through fossil fuel subsidies contributed to an ease of the cost of living crisis by reducing prices, but came at a considerable fiscal cost. Fertilizer subsidies proved to enhance food security by boosting agricultural output with positive fiscal secondary effects.

Port efficiency and economic impact in Senegal

Increasing port efficiencies could enhance economic growth, with a positive impact on both exports and imports, resulting in GDP gains and reduced poverty rates in Senegal.

Working papers 2023

  • 2023-01

    Title: Economywide impacts of expansion of maritime trade efficiencies in Senegal - A recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium approach

    URL: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC134634

    Authors: Sahoo, A; Nechifor, V; Ferreira, V; Ferrari, E; Damit, SD

    Abstract: Senegal's strategic location along the Trans-Saharan trade route play a crucial role in the country's trade industry. About half of the country’s demand for food crops is imported. However, the port capacity is increasingly facing pressures due to its infrastructural constraints leading to hidden iceberg type of costs. Infrastructural investment can potentially raise the port capacity, hence increasing the efficiencies of trade transactions by doing away with the existing iceberg costs. The study applies a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model to evaluate potential outcomes of increased efficiencies in maritime trade on Senegal’s economic performances and wellbeing of Senegal. The findings indicate that increasing the efficiencies of maritime trade would result in lower costs for imported food products and inputs to the domestic activities, enhancing country’s competitiveness in the export markets that would boost domestic output, particularly of cash crops, industrial food and chemical products. Increased availability of food supply with higher purchasing power of the households would support the country’s food security. Improved maritime efficiencies would improve country’s economic growth and overall welfare with urban households benefiting the most. There would be significant reduction in poverty incidence at the national level, with larger impacts on rural areas. However, impacts on extreme poor are substantially lower than poverty incidence.

  • 2023-02

    Title: The Effects of Rising Prices on Maize Production in Western African Countries

    URL: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC134410

    Authors: Rogna, M

    Abstract: The intensification of the Russo--Ukrainian war started in February 2022 with the Russian invasion of Ukraine has generated a dramatic increase in the price of several goods. In particular, energy, gas and oil have been the most interested by this spike in prices, followed by several agricultural commodities. Fertilizers, whose production is energy intensive and/or directly dependent from oil derivatives, have also experienced a sharp increase in prices. This has risen concerns for food insecure countries, particularly in Africa, since, besides a lower possibility to purchase food commodities on the international market, they will likely decrease their own production due to a lower utilization of fertilizers. Quantifying this potential decrease in agricultural production is important in order to fully assess their vulnerability in terms of food security. The present paper tries to accomplish this task by forecasting the change in maize production in 2022 and 2023 compared to 2021 in seven Western African countries. We find an overall decline in maize production of 10% circa in both years with a strong heterogeneity among countries. Trivial users of fertilizers, such as Niger, experience a very modest decline in production (less than 2%) whereas others, such as Benin and Togo, have a double digit decline: approximately 13% the former and 32% the latter.

  • 2023-03

    Title: Agro-economic determinants of violations of Protected Areas in Western Africa

    URL: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC134631

    Authors: Rogna, M

    Abstract: Protected areas are a widely diffused instrument for preserving the environment by restricting human activities in locations with a high natural value. However, such restrictions may create discontent on nearby inhabitants or on economic actors that are prevented from exploiting the resources present in protected areas. This may easily lead to violations. Encroachment, the use of land inside protected areas for agricultural purposes, is a common violation. The present paper investigates the determinants of encroachment in Western African countries. The focus is placed on the agro-economic determinants. Protected areas in locations with strong agricultural vocation or with high percentage of protected land are more likely to be subject to violations. Furthermore, economic deprivation and land profitability are other two mild drivers of encroachment together with mechanization. Other indicators of modern practices such as irrigation and use of inorganic fertilizers, instead, do not increase the probability of violations to protected areas.

  • 2023-04

    Title: Sustainable practices in cocoa production. The role of certification schemes and farmer cooperatives

    URL: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC135044

    Authors: Krumbiegel, K; Tillie, P

    Abstract: Many small-scale cocoa producers in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana grow cocoa on unshaded or low-shaded cocoa plots. This has dire consequences for farm biodiversity, resulting in lower species richness and depleted soils. To measure the extent of sustainable agricultural practices’ use in the cocoa sector, we develop a scale that incorporates dimensions of agroforestry, soil conservation, pest and disease management and farm sanitation. We use a representative data set of more than 1700 cocoa producers in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana to assess farmer participation in different organizational structures and market channels and their roles in promoting sustainable practices. We apply a multinomial endogenous switching regression model to control for potential selection bias and derive the average treatment effect of the treated (ATT) and the untreated (ATU) for three participation options: 1) certification scheme only, 2) farmer cooperative only and 3) both. In Côte d’Ivoire, econometric results show that joint participation in both a certification scheme and a farmer cooperative leads to a significantly higher sustainability score than alternative options. In comparison, certification scheme membership shows the highest effect in Ghana. Different findings may be explained by differences in the organization of the cocoa value chain across the two countries. Governmental extension services in Ghana provide support to cocoa farmers, which otherwise farmer cooperatives would potentially offer.

  • 2023-05

    Title: Integrating the three sustainability dimensions: A Social Accounting Matrix approach for Cameroon.

    URL: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC134015

    Authors: El Meligi, A; Ferreira, V; Ferrari, E

    Abstract: A Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) is a comprehensive and economy-wide database that records data on all transactions taking place in an economy over a specific period, typically one year. The SAM serves two primary objectives. Firstly, it presents the economic structure and interrelationships among economic agents in the region under analysis. Secondly, it provides a database for analysing the economy’s performance and simulating the effects of policy interventions through multisectoral linear models and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. This paper presents the 2016 SAM for Cameroon, offering a suitable database for implementing and evaluating the country's developmental, social, economic and environmental policies. The paper outlines how to pass from a standard structure of the SAM to a detailed scheme by explaining all the accounts included, and covering key aspects of its construction and estimation. This SAM presents a high level of disaggregation by encompassing labour and household characteristics, along with satellite accounts for employment and emissions. The SAM is used as a database to perform a descriptive analysis of the Cameroonian economy and to obtain results that focus on the three sustainability dimensions: social, economic and environmental.

  • 2023-06

    Title: Agricultural Commodities' Price Transmission From International to Local Markets in Developing Countries

    URL: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC135279

    Authors: Emediegwu, L; Rogna, M

    Abstract: The transmission of commodities prices from the international to local markets is an interesting and deeply investigated topic. A fast and strong link between the two levels of the market is seen by economists as a sign of local market efficiency, allowing actors to respond fast to signals coming from the international market. However, the empirical evidence on the topic is very mixed, ranging from a very weak linkage between the two market prices to a high-speed and almost complete transmission. The present paper aims to advance the knowledge on the topic by focusing on the price transmission of four main cereals – maize, rice, sorghum, and wheat – in 23 developing and fragile economies. Employing a recent World Bank dataset with prices for several local markets in select countries, we estimate panel vector autoregressions (PVAR) to analyze the pass-through effects of international price shocks on local food prices. We find evidence for a relatively strong price transmission elasticity for all commodities except sorghum. Furthermore, the observed transmission of shocks is almost immediate. We present the policy implications for these findings.

  • 2023-07

    Title: Implications of Russia’s war against Ukraine for African economies: A CGE analysis for Ethiopia

    URL: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC135512

    Authors: Woldie Yalew, A; Nechifor, V; Ferrari, E

    Abstract: The ongoing Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine is disrupting the global supply chains of essential commodities resulting in a cascading effects on the global economy. This study examines the implications of Russia’s military aggression for Ethiopian. It assesses the consequences of world market price increases for wheat, fertilizer, and petroleum on Ethiopia’s macro economy, production, and households’ consumption. The study employs a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model calibrated to the 2015/2016 social accounting matrix (SAM) of Ethiopia, updated to 2022 using the recursive dynamic features of the model. The impacts of the world price increases are presented as percentage changes to a counterfactual Ethiopian economy in 2022, without accounting for actual and anticipated repercussions from the war. The study finds that GDP, labour wage rates, and households’ consumption decline. The impacts of fertilizer and petroleum price changes are notable and unevenly distributed. Crop growing activities substitute animal manure for inorganic fertilizers. The effect on urban households’ consumption more severe than on rural households. Rising petroleum prices increase the demand for ethanol providing motives to expand sugar manufacturing. Increasing inorganic fertilizer prices tighten the competition for the use of animal manure between cropping activities and households. Promotion of biogas digesters among rural households could encourage the optimal use of animal manure.

Working papers 2024

  • 2024-01

    Title: The AfCFTA Tariff Offers: Current State and First Insights

    URL: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC135509

    Authors: Boysen, O

    Abstract: The majority of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement signatories have submitted tariff concession offers, as published on the AfCFTA Secretariat’s website. More than a year after the AfCFTA came into effect, it is time to take stock of these submissions and conduct a first assessment of the data with respect to members’ stances towards fostering intra-African trade through openness on the one hand and maintaining protection against competing imports and revenues from import tariffs on the other. Combining the offers with corresponding trade and tariff data, we find that there are both substantial data gaps and inconsistencies with the AfCFTA’s trade liberalisation modalities and the trade classification standard. Constructing two tariff schedules, one which repairs the offers for compliance with the modalities and another that maximises the import tariff revenue retained as a benchmark, the study gauges each region’s offer regarding the commitment to liberalisation versus protection. The analysis confirms that the modalities require regions to liberalise strongly but most opt to liberalise even more and earlier than necessary. Stances towards freer trade differ markedly between regions. Some tend towards retaining all possible tariff revenues or corresponding negotiation space while others directly and strongly commit to liberalisation. The constructed AfCFTA liberalisation categorisations are provided for download to update AfCFTA impact analyses with the latest information available on a likely AfCFTA tariff liberalisation agreement.

  • 2024-02

    Title: Empowering the modelling for Policy with the 2015 Social Accounting Matrix for Tanzania

    URL: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC135413

    Authors: El Meligi, A; Ferreira, V; Nechifor, V; Boysen, O; Ferrari, E

    Abstract: A Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) is a comprehensive and economy-wide database that records data on all transactions taking place in an economy over a specific period, typically one year. The SAM serves two primary objectives. Firstly, it presents the economic structure and interrelationships among economic agents in the region under analyses. Secondly, it provides a database for analysing the economy’s performance and simulating the effects of policy interventions through multisectoral linear models and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. This report presents the 2015 SAM for Tanzania, offering a suitable database for implementing and evaluating the country's social and economic policies. The report outlines how to pass from a standard structure of the SAM to a detailed scheme by explaining all the accounts included, and covering key aspects of its construction and estimation. Considering the characteristics of the Tanzanian economy, this SAM shows a special structure to reflect the Home Production for Home Consumption (HPHC) issue and a high disaggregation of the agricultural sector. Furthermore, this SAM presents a high level of disaggregation by encompassing labour and household characteristics, considering regions, gender rural and urban areas, as well as quintiles. The SAM is used as a database to perform a descriptive analysis of the Tanzanian economy.

  • 2024-03

    Title: The contribution of agricultural Inputs in reducing undernourishment

    URL: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC136856

    Authors: Rogna, M

    Abstract: With almost eight hundred millions people suffering from hunger in 2022, the world population projected to increase of 2 additional billions units by 2050 and the need to strongly curb greenhouse gas emissions, food production will remain a central issue in the next decades. In particular, the need to balance between environmental sustainability and output growth will require to make crucial choices. Agro-ecology, for example, strongly advocates the need to reduce inputs use in agriculture, often criticizing the intensification policy implemented during the so called “Green Revolution”. However, every decision has benefits and costs. While the effect of agricultural inputs on yields has been largely studied, their contribution to nutritional outcomes has been partly overlooked. In order to take well-informed decisions about optimal inputs intensity, this is an aspect to be taken into consideration. Therefore, the present paper investigates the role of agricultural inputs in reducing undernourishment through fixed effect panel regressions at country level. By covering roughly half of the countries in the world for a 20 years’ time period, it is shown that irrigation and mineral fertilizers positively and significantly contribute to reduce undernourishment. Pesticides and manure are also beneficial, but their contribution is less robust, while land per-capita seems to be inconsequential.

  • 2024-05

    Title: Exploring food consumption patterns across the rural-urban continuum in West Africa

    URL: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC137488

    Authors: Cockx, L; Boti, D

    Abstract: Diets are a significant contributor to malnutrition in all its forms. Moreover, changes in food consumption create opportunities and challenges for agrifood systems. An improved understanding of diets is therefore crucial to design appropriate food, agricultural, and nutrition policies. Urbanization is commonly put forward as a determinant of changing diets. Yet, research on this relationship has been challenged by the lack of a unified definition of what constitutes an “urban” area. In addition, a simple rural-urban dichotomy has resulted in a focus on the “rural-urban divide” that disregards the interconnectedness between various types of population agglomerations and masks differences within rural and urban zones. In this study, we combine household survey data on food consumption with satellite data capturing the urbanisation gradient following the harmonized definition of the Degree or Urbanisation. While there are important differences across countries, several patterns emerge clearly including a shift away from traditional staples, towards more conveniently consumed and prepared foods. While the effects are often strongest cities, we find significant differences in food consumption at much lower levels of urbanization. This confirms the importance of moving beyond a simple rural-urban dichotomy and taking into account the great diversity among both rural and urban environments.

Working papers 2025

  • January 2025

    Title: Behind the model, beyond the numbers: The 2019 Social Accounting Matrix for Nigeria

    URL: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC137964

    Authors: El Meligi, A; Ferreira, V; Nechifor, V; Boysen, O; Ferrari, E

    Abstract: A Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) is a comprehensive and economy-wide database that records data on all transactions taking place in an economy over a specific period, typically one year. The SAM serves two primary objectives. Firstly, it presents the economic structure and interrelationships among economic agents in the region under analyses. Secondly, it provides a database for analysing the economy’s performance and simulating the effects of policy interventions through multisectoral linear models and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. This paper presents the 2019 SAM for Nigeria, offering a suitable database for implementing and evaluating the country's social and economic policies. The study outlines how to pass from a standard structure of the SAM to a detailed scheme by explaining all the accounts included, and covering key aspects of its construction and estimation. Considering the characteristics of the Nigerian economy, this SAM shows a special structure to reflect the Home Production for Home Consumption (HPHC) concept and a high disaggregation of the agricultural sector. Furthermore, this SAM presents a high level of disaggregation by encompassing labour and household characteristics, considering regions and rural and urban areas. The SAM is used as a database to perform a descriptive analysis of the Nigerian economy.

  • May 2025

    Title: An Analysis of Cocoa Market Fundamentals and Price Transmission in the Cocoa Value Chain

    URL: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC142155

    Authors: Rogna, M; Tillie, P

    Abstract: After two decades of substantial stagnation, with consequent complaints from producer countries, the international price of cocoa beans has suddenly started to dramatically rise, attracting interest on this commodity, that is a fundamental source of income for millions of smallholders around the world. The present paper offers a broad analysis of the cocoa sector, divided into two main components: an investigation of the cocoa market fundamentals and an assessment of the price transmission inside the cocoa value chain. Both analyses rely on a Vector Error Correction Model, with yearly data (1961-2022) for the evaluation of market fundamentals and monthly data (January 1996-July 2024) for the price transmission investigation. An analysis of structural breaks is conducted in both cases. While the yearly market analysis, that combines prices and quantities, does not present structural breaks except for the price of cocoa beans, all residuals and predicted cointegrated equations of the price transmission analysis show a structural break.

  • June 2025

    Title: Labour productivity, food security and nutrition driver: A CGE framework for Kenya

    URL: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC142051

    Authors: Custodio-Cerezales, E; Jiménez-Calvo, S; Ramos, MP; Sartori, M; Ferrari, E

    Abstract: Hunger and malnutrition remain significant challenges in Kenya, affecting labour productivity and economic performance. This work integrates the effect of key micronutrients (haem iron, zinc, and vitamins A RAE and B2) on labour productivity into the DEMETRA single-country dynamic CGE model for Kenya. Aligned with the recent national plans, it simulates a national policy promoting better nutrition by introducing subsidies for healthy foods like fruits, vegetables, fish, and dairy. Preliminary results suggest that building the dynamic baseline micronutrients intakes contribute positively to improve labour productivity in all regions in Kenya; however, disparities of impacts appear across regions due to their differences in the current food security and nutrition conditions. A greater labour productivity is then reflected in an increase in GDP in the medium- and long-term due to micronutrients intake. The simulation of sale subsidies of healthy food commodities highlights the presence of two mechanisms over economic variables: an increase through micronutrients intakes but a decrease due to lower public budget for education and health expenditure that also impact on labour productivity and GDP. These results highlight the necessity to consider a comprehensive socio-economic cost-benefit analysis for each policy measure and further research into alternative strategies like food fortification and biofortification. Nutritional policies could serve as growth strategies by leveraging the hidden economic benefits of nutrient-rich diets.

  • July 2025

    Title: The Impact of the EU Deforestation Regulation on Cocoa - Markets, Trade and Forest Conservation

    URL: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC141600

    Authors: Boysen, O

    Abstract: Through the Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), the European Union recognises its responsibility for the deforestation, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and biodiversity loss associated with the products consumed by its citizens. For a defined set of products associated with high deforestation risk, including cocoa, the regulation requires proof that the covered products, if sold on or from the EU market, are not linked to recent deforestation and are produced in accordance with the national laws of the countries of origin. Given the EU’s status as a major global consumer of cocoa products, the regulation affects the entire supply chain, impacting numerous actors across many countries. This study develops and applies a global market model for cocoa and cocoa products to conceptualise and quantify the impact of the regulation on markets, farmer welfare, deforestation and CO2 emissions. The results of simulating alternative scenarios of how cocoa producing and consuming countries respond to the EUDR indicate large shifts in trade flows and a reduction in global cocoa production, while farmer welfare increases. Cocoa-related deforestation declines, but much less than the initial deforestation figures suggest due to leakage. However, the deforestation reduction effect will increase overproportionally if other major consumer countries adopt similar policies.

  • November 2025

    Title: Intermediaries in the West-African cocoa sector: a buyer and producer perspective

    URL: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC142321

    Authors: Van Hee, J; Krumbiegel, K; Tillie, P

    Abstract: This study investigates the underexplored role of intermediaries within the cocoa value chains of Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, utilizing a novel dataset comprising data from 1,071 cocoa producers and 293 buyers. While previous research has primarily focused on small-scale farmers, this study shifts attention to the dynamics involving primary buyers—pisteurs, cooperatives, cooperative delegates, and purchasing clerks—and their interactions with producers. Our findings reveal that the producer-cooperative relationship can be considered the strongest among various buyer types, characterized by long-term contracts and high trust levels, particularly during weighing and pricing of cocoa. In contrast, pisteurs and purchasing clerks maintain more flexible yet less stable relationships, with competition driven by service provision rather than price due to government-set farmgate prices. Despite 83% of producers striving to improve cocoa quality, there is a lack of monetary incentives at the farm level. Approx. 97% of buyers report that quality does not influence pricing. As the EU Due Diligence Regulation and EU Deforestation Regulation are put in place, buyers will play a more important role in formalizing the cocoa value chain and enhancing its transparency. Their role could significantly influence the implementation of traceability and legal compliance, aligning local practices with global standards and fostering more economically sustainable and equitable trade in the cocoa industry.

  • November 2025

    Title: The Nigerien economy in detail: A Social Accounting Matrix for 2019

    URL: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC142727

    Authors: El Meligi, A; Ferreira, V; Sangaré, S; Nechifor, V; Boysen, O; Ferrari, E

    Abstract: This paper presents a comprehensive Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Niger, covering all economic transactions for the year 2019. The SAM is a powerful tool for understanding the country's economic structure and relationships between economic agents, and for analysing the economy's performance and simulating the effects of policy interventions. The SAM has two primary functions: it provides a detailed snapshot of the economy's interrelationships and structure, and it serves as a database for advanced economic modelling and policy analysis. The 2019 Niger SAM is a highly detailed and nuanced database that reflects the unique characteristics of the Nigerien economy. It incorporates a special structure to account for Home Production for Home Consumption (HPHC) and features a high level of disaggregation in the regional agricultural sector, both for crop and livestock production. Additionally, the SAM includes detailed breakdowns of labour and household characteristics, including regional, rural-urban, gender, and educational segmentation. This study provides a step-by-step guide on how to construct and estimate a detailed SAM, and demonstrates the utility of the SAM as a database for descriptive analysis of the Nigerien economy. The resulting SAM offers a valuable resource for policymakers and researchers to evaluate and implement social and economic policies in Niger, and provides a foundation for further economic analysis and modelling.

  • November 2025

    Title: The 2019 Social Accounting Matrix for South Africa: Construction and estimation by province, gender and labour market

    URL: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC142724

    Authors: El Meligi, A; Zondo, B; Flaig, D; Morokong, T; Ferrari, E

    Abstract: This study introduces a comprehensive Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for South Africa, covering all economic transactions for the year 2019. The SAM provides a detailed framework for understanding the country's economic structure and relationships between various economic agents. It also serves as a foundation for analysing economic performance and simulating policy impacts using advanced modelling techniques. The presented SAM offers a highly detailed breakdown of the agricultural and food sectors, as well as labour and household characteristics, including provincial, gender, and formal/informal distinctions. By outlining the construction and estimation process, this research provides a valuable resource for policymakers and researchers to evaluate and implement social and economic policies in South Africa, and demonstrates the SAM's utility through a descriptive analysis of the country's economy.

  • December 2025

    Title: African integration with global reach: spillover effects of AfCFTA non-tariff measure reforms

    URL: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC144716

    Authors: Simola, A; Boysen, O; Nechifor, V; Ferrari, E

    Abstract: Using the MAGNET recursive-dynamic CGE model, we quantify AfCFTA non-tariff measure (NTM) reforms. We advance the methodology by modeling regulatory spillovers as public goods, deviating from standard Vinerian assumptions. Results indicate spillovers generate welfare gains up to 16 times larger than tariff cuts. However, a structural tradeoff emerges: while maximizing aggregate efficiency, spillovers reinforce comparative advantages in primary commodities, disproportionately benefiting resource-rich economies regardless of development status. We conclude that successful integration requires strategic sequencing of input harmonization and targeted adjustment funds to manage this efficiency-industrialization tension.

Events

27/06/2025 Rome, Italy 6th AU – EU Agriculture Ministerial Conference - Side event: Supporting science-to-policy for sustainable agri-food systems across Europe and Africa
24/06/2025 Virtual The 5th PANAP General Assembly
21/06/2025 Kigali, Rwanda DEMETRA Modelling Workshop
29/05/2025 Virtual DEMETRA Modelling Workshop: online introduction to CGE
17/10/2024 Virtual General annual PANAP meeting 2024
17/06/2024 Seville, Spain 2nd workshop on "Economy-wide agricultural modelling with DEMETRA"
21/02/2024 Abuja, Nigeria Workshop on the impact of the AfCFTA for the Nigerian economy
15/02/2024 Ghana StEPPFoS Project Inception Meeting, 1st General Assembly and 1st Steering Committee
14/02/2024 Ghana Workshop on the potential impact of AfCFTA on agri-food sectors and food security
14/12/2023 Virtual General annual PANAP meeting 2023
07/12/2023 Dakar, Senegal Workshop on the results of an ex-post evaluation of an agricultural input subsidy program in Senegal
27/09/2023 Dodoma, Tanzania Workshop for the “The impact of the AfCFTA on the Tanzanian economy” in Dodoma, Tanzania
18/09/2023 Durban, South Africa PANAP participation at the 7th African Conference of Agricultural Economists & 60th Annual AEASA Conference
30/06/2023 Rome, Italy 5th AU – EU Agriculture Ministerial Conference - Side event: how science can support policymaking, the PANAP example
06/06/2023 Durban, South Africa The sustainable mutation of the Cacao Supply Chain: challenges and opportunities for Africa
13/03/2023 Seville, Spain Workshop "Economy-wide agricultural modelling with DEMETRA"
14/09/2022 Accra, Ghana General annual PANAP meeting during the "Science and Partnership for Agriculture Conference"
25/11/2021 Virtual 2nd PANAP meeting during the CAADP-PP 2021 event
22/06/2021 Virtual 4th African Union (AU) – European Union (EU) agriculture ministerial conference - Official page
10/12/2020 Virtual Science Forum South Africa (SFSA) - PANAP session
06/11/2019 Addis Ababa, Ethiopia PANAP launch event and first conference - Official page
21/06/2019 Rome, Italy African Union - European Union agriculture ministerial conference

Knowledge platforms

Africa Knowledge Platform

A gateway to data and information on Africa's social, economic, territorial and environmental development, developed by the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission.

FARADataInformS

Observartory for Africa Agriculture, powered by the Forum for Agricultural Research in Africa (FARA)

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Knowledge Centre for Global Food and Nutrition Security

We support the EU global commitment to end hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition through a dedicated, reinforced science-policy interface and a fostered inter-policy dialogue.

StEPPFoS Collaborative Platform

This collaborative platform aims to facilitate sharing of ideas, knowledge and experiences on agricultural and food system innovations and promote research-policy dialogue among stakeholders of the StePPFoS project and PANAP network.

Strengthening Evidence-Based Policy Practice for Sustainable Food Systems (StEPPFoS)

The StEPPFoS project is an initiative designed to align the Pan-African Network for Economic Analysis of Policies (PANAP) efforts with those of the Food and Nutrition Security and Sustainable Agriculture (FNSSA) sector. By doing so, it aims to bridge the gap between policy and practice in a way that addresses Africa’s unique agricultural and nutritional challenges.

News on the web

News from the web

News gathered from the World Wide Web, with relevance for the PANAP network.

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EMM is updated every 10 minutes, 24 hours per day.

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Newsletters

PANAP Newsletter 2024 Nr. 1, January

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Welcome to the inaugural newsletter of JRC contribution to The Pan-African Network for economic Analysis of Policies (PANAP). This initiative is part of the endorsed actions agenda of the 3rd AU-EU Agriculture Ministerial Conference on Agriculture in 2019.

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