What happens to GHG emissions if exports of a product or service change?
This interactive tool is based on the 2017 Kenya SAM, and provides the GHG emissions (kt in CO2 equivalent) that would be generated by an exogenous shock in the final demand for the selected commodities. The GHG emissions are the sum of direct, indirect and induced effects (calculated after infinite feedbacks).
The tool is expected to be expanded in the future with more countries.
Mechanism - main theoretical concepts
The tool allows to simulate exogenous shocks in the final demand for the selected commodities, and the GHG emissions are the sum of direct, indirect and induced effects (calculated after infinite feedbacks).
Shocks can be introduced in several sectors at the same time. The results show both the variation in GHG emissions for each of the sectors of activity concerned and the aggregate variation.
The tool is a practical application of the usefulness of the "Social Accounting Matrices" (SAMs) for the involved countries. Only Kenya is included in this first version.
The tool is not a crystal ball!
Please do NOT interpret results as an accurate forecast of GHG emissions!
Please take results as an indication of the different potential that commodities have in the different sectors.
Be cautious!
The calculations are based on the assumption that external trade, investment and public expenditure are exogenous (not model-dependent), therefore the demand shock may refer to either of these variables (although the shock in percentage term is performed, for sake of simplicity, only as a reference to current exports).
The results are subject to several assumptions such as: constant prices and fixed technology production functions (Leontief type) and do not take into account variations or changes in other socio-economic variables.
This is why results should never be interpreted as accurate forecasts of GHG emissions, but rather as indication of which commodities have the highest potential and in which sectors.
(*) This simulator is based on the Jobs Calculator launched on 2019, which has been expanded over time with many countries.
