ESPAS Foresight Papers

In view of the upcoming changes AI, quantum and cybersecurity will bring, this foresight paper explores existing and potential future trends in the development of these three domains over the coming 15 years, as well as related opportunities, challenges and risks – globally and for the EU. As all three areas are undergoing such rapid development, with a significant dose of unpredictability, the 2040 perspective of this paper is quite distant, and many foresight projections in this paper apply only to the next couple of years. Moreover, several milestones have timelines which are difficult to define. The paper analyses general trends and the likely advances of the global tech leaders, with a focus on AI, quantum and related cybersecurity questions, and the implications for Europe and the world. It focuses on possible future opportunities for Europe, as well as challenges and risks at the intersections of the three areas. The final chapter presents the key strategic choices that EU policy- and decision-makers will face in the coming years.

Leading in the development and application of artificial intelligence (AI), quantum and cybersecurity, harnessing first mover advantage, securing resilience, and setting global standards will all play a key role in the international power game. These three technologies are critical, due to their potential to increase productivity and competitiveness, to drive economic growth, and accelerate research, innovation and technological progress. They will also have a huge impact on the way we live, work and function as a society, and on the future of democracy. They are also of growing importance for security.

This paper defines inter-generational fairness (IGF) as the ability to act in a fair manner and to address the challenges of current generations including distinctive age groups (youth, adults, and elderly people), as well as of future (unborn) generations. We are witnessing a time where these values are being challenged from within and from outside the Union by big power competition and profound societal transformation, especially driven by technological change, with, as a result, the erosion of the social contract set in place in Europe after the Second World War. This transformation is largely due to a new (4.0) AI- and automation-driven industrial revolution, which will have lasting consequences for European society, and on the interaction between the various age groups forming the current generations, as well as on the next (unborn) generations, whose interests ought to be considered and protected along with the interest of the current generations. The EU may have to address external (geopolitical) and inner (societal and economic) challenges simultaneously if it wishes to maintain its relevance and be a pole of prosperity and stability by 2040The question is not ‘if’ the European Union should seek to act but how best it can integrate an inter-generational dimension in its policies, whilst striving for a social contract that is ‘fit for purpose’ and fair, allowing the EU to continue to uphold its fundamental values of freedom, democracy, equality, rule of law and respect for human rights.

Democracy is undergoing a global recession, with only a small percentage of the world living in countries that can be described as 'full democracies'. While Europe may still be considered the 'freest region' in the world, it is not immune to this democratic erosion, which occurs largely as a gradual 'hollowing out' rather than an abrupt collapse. After describing current trends in Europe and globally across the key dimensions of democratic quality, this paper takes a systems approach to examine the dynamics of democratic erosion. This approach underscores that democratic decline stems from a complex interplay of underlying conditions such as economic inequality and governance failures, exploited by illiberal actors through various causal pathways. These pathways are centred on the election of leaders who then proceed to hollow out the substantial features of democracy, as well as executive overreach, and societal polarisation – also fuelled by social media and algorithmic amplification. The paper then illustrates key lessons on democratic revival from successful cases of re-democratisation, highlighting key factors – such as the role of a resilient civil society, smart opposition tactics, and sustained efforts to restore democratic norms while addressing societal divisions and delivering tangible outcomes for voters – that are essential for long-term democratic recovery. This is followed by a section drawing attention to the role of narratives and storytelling both to erode and to sustain democracy. Finally, the paper presents a set of strategic choices for the future of democracy in Europe.

This paper aims to reflect on, and trigger further reflection on, the role that organised civil society could play in 2050 through a set of different scenarios drafted on the basis of the following questions:

• How could the digital and green transitions impact the role of civil society organisations in society?
• What impact could the twin transition have on our society and how will it affect citizens' relationships with and participation in CSOs?
• How can the negative developments presented in the three scenarios be avoided?
• What role can CSOs play in implementing the twin transition based on the proposed scenarios?

By answering the questions above, the paper serves as a starting point for discussions on this topic. Specifically, this paper will help foresight practitioners, policy-makers and civil society organisations in general consider the possible impacts the twin transition could have and avoid the worst-case scenarios.

Given the crucial importance of digitalisation for the short, medium- and long-term future of the European Union, digital divides can jeopardise the achievement of the targets of the EU's Digital Decade, which have been set until 2030.

A key question is therefore how to address the digital divides in the context of relevant long-term developments, and with a view to global trends such as demographic change, urbanisation or the changing nature of work, well until 2040 or 2050. This ESPAS ideas paper focuses on exploring the possible development of a range of parameters for the coming decades.

In this respect, it looks beyond scenarios within the EU, to take into account geostrategic and global trends on several dimensions.

The semiconductor supply shortages that emerged during the pandemic are unlikely to dissolve soon as huge amounts of capital and knowledge are needed to ramp up production.

Investment in innovation remains key and European research remains a driving force in the progressive miniaturisation of increasingly advanced and efficient chips.

The insights shared by policy experts for this paper allow us to imagine four potential futures for EU semiconductor interests towards the end of this decade.

Their expectations, hopes, fears and geopolitical insights here shape the potential continuity, rise, decline and collapse of EU semiconductor capabilities and supply security by 2030, as well as key policy questions to consider.

Public health is becoming increasingly globalised. Especially since the Covid-19 pandemic, health has become a central topic on the geopolitical stage, and has increasingly become interlinked and interconnected across the EU policy ecosystem.

This paper examines the impacts of four key dimensions of the ‘geopolitics of health’ that have or could have an impact on the EU and current EU capabilities, focusing on issues relevant to external relations: for example trade and economics, climate and environment, migration, social issues, and security.

The aim of this paper is to provide a foundation for discussion on the changing nature of the EU’s approach to global health in light of developments of the last few years, as well as on how it can tackle challenges and seize opportunities that lie ahead for a healthier world of the future.

Through its growing influence in Western democracies, populism has become a significant political phenomenon that seeks to gain influence and ultimately assume political leadership.

It is important to understand the mechanisms and dynamics that are contributing to populism, particularly given that a more authoritarian strain of populism is gaining ground.

Populism can be seen as a symptom of democracy in retreat, but also as an instrument driving that retreat.

An added difficulty of defining populism is that populist methods and narratives are becoming increasingly mainstream.

Traditional politicians can easily be tempted by the allure of populist methods if they think they will bring them electoral advantage.

In addition to looking at key trends, this paper analyses four possible futures for populist movements and their impact on the European Union.