Europe 2040: What future for European security?

Geopolitics, Defence, Energy, Climate, Technology, Economy, Society

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    Welcome and opening address

    • Welcome

    • Bernard Magenhann, Chair of ESPAS; Director-General, Joint Research Centre, European Commission

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    Opening session



    • Europe 2040: What future for European security?

    • Moderator

      • Bernard Magenhann, Chair of ESPAS; Director-General, Joint Research Centre, European Commission

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    Keynote Address

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    Coffee

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    Panel session 1

    • Future of European security and defence

      The shift from cooperation to competition poses critical questions for the EU’s future role on the global stage. Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine threatens Europe’s security. China is challenging Europe geo-economically, weaponising economic and trade dependencies. Security challenges in the EU strategic environment also derive from the erosion of the rules-based international order with a marked shift from rules to power and asymmetrical warfare, as exemplified in the current conflicts in the Middle East, an acceleration away from international cooperation including on new technologies, climate change and trade, and increased maritime, cyber and hybrid threats. At the same time, the United States is in the process of recalibrating its foreign policy priorities and posture and calling on Europe to step up its own defence capabilities. Hard power will increasingly define global security.

      What will be the defence and security challenges facing Europe in 2040? How could the European Union defend itself effectively, prepare better, and who could its global partners of choice be?

      • Mika Aaltola MEP, Member, Foreign Affairs Committee, European Parliament; former Director, Finnish Institute of International Affairs

      • Dr Peter Engelke, Senior fellow, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security and the Global Energy Center, Atlantic Council; Founder of the Council’s ‘Global Foresight’ publication

      • Dr Benedetta Berti, Secretary General of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly

      • Rachel Ellehuus, Director-General of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI)

    • Moderator

      • Koen Aartsma, Programme Lead Strategic Foresight and Intelligence; Senior Research Fellow, Clingendael Institute

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    Panel session 2

    • Future of European security: energy and climate

      The 2022 energy crisis showed how dependence on imported fuels translates into geopolitical exposure, price shocks, and economic instability. It also clarified something more constructive: the clean energy transition is not only a climate agenda but part of an economic security strategy. By 2040, electrification, home-grown clean generation, and resilient grids can turn Europe’ energy system from a vulnerability into a source of strategic strength.

      Thinking EU climate policy and economic competitiveness and security together could offer a European path to strategic autonomy. This can include decentralised and distributed infrastructure, the use of renewables, a more circular economy and creating partnerships with third countries for energy and industrial production.

      What could the synergy between sustainability and economic security in Europe look like by 2040? How can we see competitiveness, affordability, and decarbonisation not as competing goals, but as pointing in the same direction?

      • Dr Mallika Ishwaran, Group Chief Economist, Shell International

      • Jean-Marc Jancovici, Founder and President of The Shift Project. Climate change & Energy consultant, author. Co-founder and Partner of Carbone 4

    • Moderator

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    Lunch

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    Keynote Address

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    Coffee

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    Panel session 3

    • Future of European security: technology and the economy

      Economic growth and competitiveness will increasingly be tied to technological leadership and innovation. Europe has strengths in technology but remains too dependent on others for critical technologies. Artificial Intelligence, Quantum and Cyber will be critical to Europe’s future due to their potential to drive productivity, competitiveness and economic growth, and accelerate research, innovation and technological progress. They will also be of growing importance in relation to economic security as those controlling the most advanced technologies and supply chains can concentrate power on an unprecedented scale.

      What could the European model of technological power look like in 2040?

      How can Europe reduce dangerous dependencies without becoming protectionist? What is a realistic level of technological sovereignty?

    • Moderator

      • Paweł Świeboda, Senior Visiting Fellow and Co-Director of the Brussels Economic Security Forum

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    Panel session 4

    • Future of European security: societal resilience

      Societies around the world are undergoing transformative change: in the economy and work, technology, climate change, rising inequalities, questions of intergenerational fairness, trust in institutions, and challenges to democracy.

      Europe finds itself confronting many of these challenges too. Although they are many and varied, they are all related to the stability of society and social cohesion.

      If resilience is the capacity of societies to withstand and adapt to shocks, then reducing poverty and exclusion is not only a social objective but a strategic one. The ESPAS foresight paper "Inclusive futures: ‘Shaping EU pathways out of poverty and social exclusion" explores long-term policy choices for ensuring that all citizens can participate fully in economic, social and democratic life.

      What could a stable European society actually look like in 2040? What policy areas should be prioritised to make our societies resilient and more cohesive?

      • Viktoriya Podgorna, People’s Deputy (MP), Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine

      • Elizabeth Kuiper, Associate Director and Head of the Health and Societal Resilience Programme (HSR), European Policy Centre

      • Gaja Šavelė, Strategic programs and advocacy manager, NGO Coalition, Lithuania

    • Moderator

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    Closing remarks and takeaways

    • Bernard Magenhann, Chair of ESPAS; Director-General, Joint Research Centre, European Commission